Saturday June 17, 2023 | LANGFORD, BC
Analysis by Mary P Brooke, Editor | Island Social Trends
By-elections don’t always stir up a lot of interest, but the two currently running in Langford-Juan de Fuca and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant do.
Langford-Juan de Fuca (on the west shore of the Greater Victoria area on South Vancouver Island) is a crucible for the rapid community growth that produces problems with school capacity challenges, housing availability, and keeping up with both physical and social infrastructure.
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant includes the challenges of Vancouver’s Downtown East Side. The area also includes West Broadway, Chinatown and a good chunk of the downtown business core. A dynamic mix of challenges around health-care, the opioid crisis, crime, and housing prices are likely top of mind in those areas.
Anything other than ushering in two BC NDP MLA’s into the legislative assembly in time for the fall session will be the biggest possible surprise of these two by-elections. The government is confident of its directions in most areas.
If there’s a win by any other party’s candidate (or even a very strong showing on election day) that will force Eby’s government to blink a bit. But even with political analysis on such an outcome would quickly become dusty, as the might of government will move the BC NDP agenda forward.
Voting day June 24:
The official campaign period is 29 days. The voting day for the by-elections is Saturday June 24, 2023 (advance voting June 16 to 21, 8 am to 8 pm). Where and when you can vote in Langford-Juan de Fuca.
Anyone who is age 18 years or old on June 24, 2023 may vote (if Canadian citizen and resident of BC since December 23, 2022).
Impacts of possible outcomes:
BC Green Leader Sonia Furstenau said back on May 27: “The results of these by-elections will not change who is in government, but they will determine who effectively represents you in the legislature, and they can multiply the impact of the BC Greens in this province.”
Presently the Greens have two seats — Furstenau and Adam Olsen (Saanich North and the Islands), so if Camille Currie wins in Langford-Juan de Fuca that would strengthen their bench to three, and if Wendy Hayko wins in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant that would double the Greens to four in the Legislative Assembly.
The BC Greens have been outspoken about how the BC Government handled COVID as well as the mechanics of providing more resilience in the health-care system overall.
If the BC NDP bring in two new MLAs into the legislature it will send a political signal about the strength and support for the current NDP government under Premier Eby, riding on the momentum built by Horgan in his years as Premier (and even before that). Filling the NDP gaps, as it were, would demonstrate the successful work of a well-organized government-level team beyond the local campaign organizations. It would justify to the BC cabinet that they are taking things in the right direction in terms of policy.
If only one NDP candidate wins between the two ridings, it would likely momentarily puzzle the party leadership but government will continue uninterrupted.
If BC NDP candidate Ravi Parmar doesn’t win in Horgan’s previous riding that would speak volumes, and catch more of the government’s attention about their political assumptions. Parmar has been getting a lot of backing from his Sooke School District (SD62) network (where he is still a trustee) and from Horgan’s old affiliations in the community.
Also, if Parmar doesn’t win that would see him return to SD62 on the political side of his life (his day-job is as a senior BC government staffer). That would avert a school district by-election in SD62.
Premier Eby was in Langford on May 25 and in Sooke this past week, mainstreeting with local BC NDP candidate Ravi Parmar in the downtown core retail areas.
If the BC United candidates win in either of the two by-election races it would indicate some attention having been paid to party leader Kevin Falcon’s messaging about public safety and health-care system challenges in recent weeks, or perhaps more broadly a response to the party rebranding (formerly the BC Liberals who held government from 2001 to mid 2017).
But more than that, it would possibly embolden the folks of the previous BC Liberal brand (and former government) and provide political fodder against the NDP for months.
The BC United candidate in Langford-Juan de Fuca is Elena Lawson, who admits she is not a career politician. So if she wins, that’s a party-level victory.
If either BC Conservative candidate wins — Mike Harris in Langford-Juan de Fuca or Karin Litzcke in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant — that would for the most part surprise the NDP thinkers, because it would mean there is a significant groundswell of frustrated folks in BC who feel unheeded.
The BC Conservative Party is led by MLA John Rustad (Nechako Lakes) who is a former BC Liberal MLA, so any significant voting strength by the two BC Conservative candidates on June 24 might also provide a moment’s pause for Falcon (who ousted Rustad in August 2022 for not acknowledging the science about human-activity making a contribution to climate change).
By-elections follow two resignations:
The MLA seats in both the currently contested ridings became vacant when the previous MLAs resigned (John Horgan had held Langford-Juan de Fuca since 2005 and Melanie Mark was first elected in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant in 2016).
Horgan left for health reasons (he is a recent second-time cancer survivor) but he had arguably paid his dues, including leading BC through the pandemic years. It’s perhaps more telling that Mark left the mainstream political system because of the pressures she felt as an Indigenous woman in the still highly-colonial legislative system.
Presently the BC NDP have 55 seats in the BC Legislative Assembly, BC United has 27, and BC Greens have two, and one seat is filled as Independent. The Premier obviously wants to have the two vacant seats filled ahead of the Fall Session which starts October 3.
Where and when to vote:
- Advance voting runs June 16 to 21. Voting stations in Langford, Sooke, Highlands, and around the Juan de Fuca areas.
- Election day is Saturday June 24.
- Where and when you can vote (Langford-Juan de Fuca).
===== ADVERTISERS:
Campaigns that wish to advertise during the by-election in Langford-Juan de Fuca are urged to contact Island Social Trends for prompt ad placement. Email: advertising@islandsocialtrends.com | Tel: 250-217-5821
===== BY-ELECTIONS NEWS ARCHIVE:
Follow news of the 2023 BC BY-ELECTIONS in ISLAND SOCIAL TRENDS.
===== RELATED:
- Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election could lead to SD62 by-election (June 1, 2023)
- By-election signage going up around Langford-Juan de Fuca (May 29, 2023)
- Two BC by-elections called for June 24 (May 27, 2023)
- Premier Eby expected to call by-election on May 27 (May 26, 2023)
- Eby calling by-election shortly, Parmar expects tight race in Langford-Juan de Fuca (May 25, 2023)
- Upcoming by-elections are critically important for voters, says Eby (May 24, 2023)
- Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election candidates at Luxton Spring Fair (May 20, 2023)
- Strategies for Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election timing (May 16, 2023)
- Passing the BC NDP torch in Langford-Juan de Fuca (May 14, 2023)
- Three provincial electoral areas for west shore (April 18, 2023)
- BC Greens launch their Langford-Juan de Fuca candidate (April 6, 2023)
- John Horgan wraps up 18 years in BC elected politics (February 9, 2023)
- Decoupling of Langford and Sooke in proposed new BC electoral boundaries (Nov 22, 2022)
===== ABOUT ISLAND SOCIAL TRENDS:
Island Social Trends has been covering politics, business, education and communities through a socioeconomic lens since 2008 on south Vancouver Island (previously as West Shore Voice News, and before that both Sooke Voice News and MapleLine Magazine).
Island Social Trends posts news daily at islandsocialtrends.ca (2020-2023). A new bi-weekly print edition will launch in mid-July 2023, with the online news portal continuing robustly.
Mary P Brooke is the editor and publisher of Island Social Trends. Ms Brooke followed and wrote extensively about the COVID pandemic during 2020-2022, and continues to follow that topic as new developments arise. She has covered news of Sooke School District 62 (SD62) in-depth since 2014 and BC education more broadly for over 10 years. In the west shore she also reports on West Shore Parks and Recreation.
Ms Brooke now reports with the BC Legislative Press Gallery. She is actively covering the by-election in Langford-Juan de Fuca. | BY-ELECTION NEWS SECTION
Among other qualifications, Ms Brooke holds a health sciences B.Sc. (Foods & Nutrition), a university Certificate in Public Relations, and an industry certificate in digital marketing. She was awarded the McGeachy Prize in Journalism (University of Saskatchewan). Mary Brooke is building a FOOD RESILIENCE NEWS ARCHIVE.