Saturday February 1, 2025 | VICTORIA, BC on the west coast of CANADA [Posted at 2:20 pm | Latest update 2:50 pm | Further updates coming through the day]
Political news analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Today US President Donald Trump has reportedly signed the orders for a 25% tariff to applied to all imports from Canada and Mexico into the United States of America (USA).
Reportedly US officials did reach out to the Canadian government to say the tariff info is coming.
As of 2:05 pm (Pacific) we now know: The US opposes tariffs from Canada and Mexico. There will 25% tariffs applied to all imports from Canada and Mexico which can be be increased as needed. There is a carve-out for energy (oil and electricity) from Canada at 10%. There is also an additional 10% tariff imposed upon China.
The US administration points to Canada, Mexico and China as the sources of fentanyl and declares, with that, an emergency by which he claims a national US emergency.
Currently all of Canada’s provincial and territorial premiers are meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (the meeting started at 1 pm Pacific / 4 pm Eastern).
The official media announcement about that has not yet taken place as a media availability (as of 1:20 pm Pacific / 4:20 pm Eastern).
Within the announcement today, the tariffs themselves are expected to be legally in place starting Tuesday February 4, 2025.
As reported at 2:10 pm (Pacific) on CBC, a full $150 billion retaliatory package is now expected from Canada’s federal government, instead of rolling that out in phases.
TO COME: Response from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau | Response from BC Premier David Eby (media availability at 3:45 pm Pacific)
Full-on economic force:
This is full-on economic force against Canada, along the lines of pressuring Canada to become the “51st state” of the United States. Most Canadians are dead set against that idea.
The American way brings with it a sense of anger and violence that Canadians instinctively revile against.
Trump feels that tariffs are a way to generate wealth for the United States, as part of putting “America first”. Trump has popularized his view that ‘tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary‘.
Big shift from NAFTA/CUSMA:
Free trade with the US and Mexico has been the economic reality for Canada since the 1980s (the North America Free Trade Agreement, i.e. NAFTA was followed by CUSMA which Trump himself had negotiated and signed).
Free trade It has seemed to be beneficial to all three nations that share this physical continent of North America.
This afternoon, reportedly (CBC) Canada is planning a “stronger day one response” than originally planned.
Trump has just recently started his second term (presidential inauguration was on January 20, 2025). The impact of his decisions will be of concern for at least the four years of his term (the 47th presidency).
Incoming expert commentary
(this section will be continually updated today):
Business Conncil of Canada CEO Goldy Hyder today told CBC that the tariff essentially becomes a consumption tax for Americans of 25%
- Workers will suffer – jobs lost will be lost as manufacturing plants shut down (less costly to close that to operate having to pay untenable prices). Beyond the manufacturing sector the rest of the economy will also be impacted.
- The geopolitics of North America is fundamentally changing (and relationships with other countries beyond the US, Canada and Mexico).
- This is “effectively changing permanently, it’s the end of the economy across North America as we’ve known it”, says Hyder.
Fen Hampson, co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-US Relations, says trade across both borders will come to a halt. He says the American businesses won’t want to pay a 25% tax (i.e. the tariff passed along from Canadian suppliers) to the US government.
- Tariffs are a tax.
- The financial sector and Wall Street will respond to the shock to the stock market starting on Monday.
- “Let’s take a deep breath. Tariffs are a circular firing squad.”
- “Canadian consumers are going to pay the freight.”
- At some point Donald Trump is going to have to walk this back, let’s not make that difficult for him.
- Put any Canadian tariffs on things that Canadians can do without (not tit-for-tat on all products).
Former Governor General Adrienne Clarkson had some stark words for Canadians in a comment to CBC today:
- Clarkson (who was Governor General of Canada during 1999-2005) will be urging Canadians to cling onto this country’s bilingualism, our care for the North, and prepare our military forces in the north. “The next thing they will want is water,” claims Clarkson.
- Many older Canadians will have been similar themes bubbling quietly under the radar over the last few decades. There has always been an American interest in and assurance of Canada’s abundant water supply (e.g. California’s almond-growing industry is based on the availability of water from Canada).
- Canadians need to assess if Canada’s integrity and existence as a sovereign nature is this something we want to fight for?
- This country has to reevaluate how it survives and where it’s friends are.
Canada will now need to change:
This is a wakeup call for Canadians. The Canada that was, probably is no more.
Reliance on oil products (for heating, plastics in early everything) and food are probably the first immediate concerns for Canadians. If vehicle-manufacturing plants shut down, the cost of availability cars and trucks will quickly go up (hold onto your used vehicle). Grow some of your own food.
Apparently 47% of vegetables heading to US and Mexico are actually grown in Canada (including fresh produce grown in greenhouses); that supply may need to shift to supply Canadian grocery stores.
Everything made of forestry products will shoot up in price — not just your paper at the office or the newspaper or books you may still buy, but also paper towel, toilet paper, hygiene products and so much more.
“We need to be serious about what we want to be,” as a new world emerges, as was stated by Hyder today.
So far there has been no response from other Commonwealth countries (which would include the UK and Australia).
===== RELATED:
- US tariffs coming: BC on the eve of economic unknowns (January 31, 2025)
- BC Finance Minister gets input from top-level economists as US tariffs loom (January 31, 2025)
- Eby appoints BC cabinet committee on economy & tariffs (January 29, 2025)
- Jan 29: Bank of Canada drops interest rate to 3.0% (January 29, 2025)
- Eby appoints BC cabinet committee on economy & tariffs (January 29, 2025)
- Premier Eby continues his tough talk on US tariffs (January 28, 2025)
- Trump specialty: anger absorbed & redistributed (January 26, 2025)
- US presidential inauguration of Trump on cold day in Washington (January 20, 2025)
- Eby delivers tough tariff talk as ministers get mandate letters (January 16, 2025)
- Premiers & PM discuss Canada’s strategy around US tariffs (January 15, 2025)
- BC Premier Eby on Canada’s strategy around US tariffs (January 15, 2025)
- Canada’s Premiers to discuss tariffs on Feb 12 in Washington DC (January 10, 2025)
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