Saturday October 26, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 1:40 pm | Latest page update 11 pm]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
UPDATE at 4 pm from Elections BC:
Updated ballot count at 4 pm today shows BC NDP still holding the lead in both Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre. Also, a continued lead for BC Conservatives in Surrey-Guildford (which could mean a flip to 46 seats for BC Conservatives, 45 for BC NDP). Next update at 1 pm Oct 27.
Original post at 1:40 pm:
The total number of additional ballots being considered for 2024 BC provincial election final count this weekend (during Oct 26 to 28) is 66,074, as announced by Elections BC yesterday.
These are ballots that were mail-in and assisted-phone votes, special ballots and absentee ballots.
These ballots will be applied across all 93 ridings in the province. The wide-option vote-anywhere Elections BC process for this election has in some ways complicated and slowed down the vote-reporting process but gives people ample opportunities to vote.
About two-thirds of the ballots (43,538) are mail-in and assisted-phone votes, while about one-third (22,536) are special & absentee ballots.
More people came out to advance voting over six days than in previous elections.
First updates 1 pm October 26:
Today the first updated results rolled in at 1 pm.
More updates are coming at 4 pm today as well as at 1 pm and 4 pm tomorrow (Sunday). Full final count is expected on Monday October 28.
Automatic recount in two ridings:
Two ridings are undergoing automatic recounts due to having fewer than 100 votes between the top two candidates.
Juan de Fuca-Malahat:
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat (23-vote margin between BC NDP and BC Conservative candidates) –initial count was 23,218 votes (three candidates); now 681 incoming ballots to be counted.
- Update at 1 pm on Oct 26/24: Total votes 23,670. with BC NDP still in the lead with 9,165 which is just 106 votes ahead of the BC Conservative candidate with 9.059; BC Green candidate at 5,446.
- Final count continues through to Monday October 28.
Surrey City Centre:
- Surrey City Centre (93-vote margin between BC NDP and BC Conservative candidates) — initial count was 13,933 votes (five candidates); now 476 incoming ballots to be counted.
- Update at 1 pm on Oct 26/24: Total votes 14,201 votes, with BC NDP at 6,596 ahead of BC Conservatives with 6,434 by a 162-vote margin. Greens at 864 and Other 307.
- Final count continues through to Monday October 28.
Determining which party forms government:
The overall provincial results so far have the BC NDP with 46 seats and the BC Conservatives with 45. If this weekend’s vote count holds BC NDP candidates in place, then the BC NDP will still have 46 MLAs. The BC Green Party has two seats/MLAs. In that scenario, the BC NDP could form a majority in some sort of alliance with the two BC Greens MLAs (giving them an effectual 48-seat impact for votes in the BC Legislative Assembly).
However, if the BC Conservative candidate wins in Surrey-Guildford (now seeming to flip from a BC NDP lead) and the two other recount ridings still hold for the BC NDP, that would result in a 45-seat result for the BC NDP and 46 seats for the BC Conservatives. Neither reaches the 47-seat threshold for a majority. It’s less likely that the BC Greens would form an alliance or agreement with the BC Conservatives.
This analysis will be updated as results continue to come in through the weekend, at 4 pm October 26, and at 1 pm and 4 pm on Sunday October 27, as well as hourly on Monday October 28, 2024.
Role of the Lieutenant Governor:
This 2024 scenario could end up much like 2017 when it was the Lieutenant Governor of the day (Judith Guichon) who made the final decision as to which party would form government. She agreed with John Horgan’s proposition that the BC NDP and BC Greens together represented the ‘progressive’ will of the people. As such, the BC NDP formed government even though the BC Liberals (the conservative-leaning party at that time) had achieved more votes.
It’s unclear whether the current Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin would make a similar assignment toward a ‘progressive’ alliance of BC NDP and BC Greens, if such a proposition will be made to her by Premier David Eby.
If the BC Conservatives did have 46 seats but could not form an agreement with the two BC Greens (for a total of 48), the legislature would run with a BC Conservative minority, or another election could be called.
People want stability from their government. Austin might tip in favour of a 45+2 BC NDP-led government over a 46-seat BC Conservative-led government, in order to achieve some stability for now.
Usual pattern:
In past elections usually the balance of vote assignment (i.e. for which party) tends to favour the BC NDP candidates (more NDP voters tend to use the additional methods of voting).
If this pattern holds then the Juan de Fuca-Malahat race may well see the final result stay with the BC NDP candidate (Dana Lajeunesse).
Election night notables:
Regardless of which party forms government there will be 58 new MLAs in a legislative assembly of 93.
That will require a lot of time for the newly-elected representatives to get up to speed with the job. There will be pressures on returning MLAs and staff to assure the skill level of new MLAs.
And either way, the two BC Green MLAs will have an inordinate amount of influence as in the government’s expectation of their support for getting any legislation passed.
Voters might rightfully be dismayed at this election result, as it’s almost certainly going to an unstable governing scenario at the BC Legislature for as long as the new government lasts. But the results do reflect the current temperament of the electorate, i.e. divided and frustrated.
===== RELATED:
- Over 66,000 mail-in, special & absentee ballots to be counted this weekend (October 25, 2024)
- BC provincial election final count coming up Oct 28 (October 24, 2024)
- Tight race in Juan de Fuca-Malahat exposes long-time political divide (October 20, 2024)
- Official recounts, voter turnout, statement from Premier David Eby (October 20, updated October 21, 2024)
- Don’t be that voter who lets rain spoil the result (October 19, 2024)
- BC Election advance voter turnout 39.3% across eight ridings in Greater Victoria (October 17, 2024)
- Who’s gonna win BC Election 2024? (October 16, 2024)
- Marina Sapozhnikov admires Rustad for his courage (October 13, 2024)
- Dana Lajeunesse hopes to follow in John Horgan’s local footsteps (October 12, 2024)
- David Evans for Juan de Fuca-Malahat: he’s Green, he’s local (October 11, 2024)
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