Monday October 28, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [ Posted at 3:45 pm | Updated on October 30, 2024 ]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
After a 9-day cliffhanger, the BC NDP will breathe a sigh of relief that BC Election 2024 has pretty much produced a majority government for their party.
But more hard work lies ahead, as Premier David Eby will likely still seek to establish some sort of stability-backup through an alliance or agreement with the BC Greens.
It will inform British Coilumbians as to just how much of a gambler he is if Eby decides to avoid further talks with the BC Greens and instead go ahead on a thin-ice 47-seat majority. [NOTE: this is published at 3 pm on October 28, 2024]
A handful of votes in the right races has made this win possible. It very much reaffirms how every vote counts and, as a subset, how campaign style matters.
Many of the absentee ballot votes that are making a difference today are coming in from locations like long-term care homes. Never underestimate the political inclinations of your grandparents or great-grandparents!
Razor-thin results:
Since October 19 election night, the razor-thin result did fluctuate. But generally the results held at 46 seats BC NDP and 45 seats BC Conservative (with 2 seats BC Green) until a breakthrough at noon today.
by 2 pm, the Elections BC results still showed 47 seats for the BC NDP:
- BC NDP with 47 seats (940,676 votes) 44.84%
- BC Conservative with 44 seats (908,206 votes) 43.29%
- BC Green with 2 seats (172,849 votes) 8.23%
And by 3 pm the results had been updated to show:
- BC NDP with 47 seats (942m391 votes) 44.86%
- BC Conservative with 44 seats (909,283 votes) 43.28%
- BC Green with 2 seats (173,137 votes) 8.24%
Many new BC MLAs:
Of the 47 BC NDP MLAs elected on October 19 (including the recount phase to today) there are 28 MLAs re-elected or returning.
The BC NDP lost 15 incumbents. Five former cabinet ministers were not re-elected (Pam Alexis, Dan Coulter, Nathan Cullen, Andrew Mercier, and Rachna Singh); another 10 NDP MLAs either did not seek re-election or were not re-elected).
That means nearly half of the BC NDP caucus will be brand new to their MLA role at the BC Legislature; it will take time for colleagues and staff to bring them up to speed.
Eby will be so much more inclined to rely on remaining long-time MLAs for his upcoming cabinet (many other long-timers did not seek re-election).
It’s notable that 31 of the BC NDP’s MLAs are women (about 66% of their caucus). The BC Conservatives have 18 women MLAs out of 44 in their caucus (about 41%). Both of the BC Green MLAs are men. Overall, the 93 MLAs of BC’s 43rd Parliament 49 (or 52.7%) are women which is up about 10% from the previous four-year legislative assembly.
BC NDP cabinet post possibilities:
Our Island Social Trends prediction on BC NDP cabinet posts starts today (and may change in the days ahead). These predictions are based on years of BC political news coverage, and in particular how various ministers performed in the last two years under David Eby.
As well, these reasoned predictions are based on how much Eby will respond to key issues that are long-standing but didn’t get enough attention during his governance in 2023 and 2024 (e.g. mental health, drug overdose crisis, food security, urban development, health-care system fallouts).
Here’s today’s quick take on possible choices for the David Eby 2024 top cabinet posts:
- Mike Farnworth continuing as Solictor General and Public Safety minister
- Niki Sharma continuing as Attorney General
- Ravi Kahlon perhaps continuing as Housing minister but possibly shifting to Finance minister or even Mental Health and Addictions if Eby wants powerful decision-making capacity in that portfolio given the overdose crisis.
- Lana Popham continuing in leading Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport
- Jennifer Whiteside likely moving on from Mental Health and Addictions to possibly Finance or Housing
- Lisa Beare continuing in leading Post Secondary and Future Skills
- Ravi Parmar continuing as Parliamentary Secretary for International Credentials (within the Post Secondary ministry)
- *New* – predicting a new standalone ministry on Food Security, which Eby might hand to Sheila Malcolmson who has helped move along food banks and poverty-related issues.
- *New* – predicting a renamed municipalities ministry to Municipalities and Urban Development. No minister suggestions here.
- *New* – predicting a new standalone ministry on Rural Development, which Eby might give to Dana Lajeunesse as the star candidate who held onto Juan de Fuca-Malahat (after Ravi Parmar held it for a year after his June 2023 by-election win).
- Adrian Dix would be a natural to continue as Minister of Health but Eby might make a strategic statement and switch Eby out, given the concerns expressed about the health-care system during the campaign.
- Raj Chouhan would be a natural to continue on as Speaker, but it’s a tough job that he’s already done for four years. There’s talk of finding someone else for that job, given that the Speaker is a non-voting position (except to break ties) and with only 47 seats the NDP would have to rely much more heavily on the two Green MLAs in order to pass legislation.
- Grace Lore probably continuing as Minister of Children and Family Development (during the election campaign Eby highlighted her work in that role).
- Bowinn Ma likely continuing to guide the Emergency Management and Climate Readiness ministry, but she might get moved into Transportation given her engineering background.
- Josie Osborne continuing as Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation.
- Rick Glumac (re-elected in Port Moody-Coquitlam) might be elevated to serve as Housing minister, how that the legislation overhaul has been done by Kahlon.
- George Chow likely continuing as Minister of Citizens’ Services.
- Anne Kang would be a good fit for the Child Care portfolio given the job-training aspect that needs to be moved into the post-secondary system.
- Brenda Bailey likely continuing in Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation to continue her work in the science area (jobs and education components).
- Spencer Chandra Herbert or Brittny Anderson taking on the Ministry of Education, to grapple in particular with the parental involvement aspect of the SOGI component of public education.
- Susie Chant (re-elected in North Vancouver-Seymour) who might be a good pick for Child Care or Urban Food Security.
- The traditional Agriculture and Food portfolio may go to someone fresh like Kelly Greene who has already been the Parliamentary Secretary for Fisheries and Aquaculture to the Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship.
- Joan Phillip could now possibly lead the Indigenous Relations ministry.
- Darlene Rotchford (newly elected) might get fast-tracked into Mental Health and Addictions (given her health-care background with Island Health), or Child Care (she’s a young mom).
- Nina Krieger might get fast-tracked into a parliamentary secretary role to help take on anti-racism, perhaps through the Citizens’ Services ministry.
- Mable Elmore has just been re-elected for a fifth term. Before the NDP were government, she had served as the Official Opposition spokesperson for ICBC, and the deputy spokesperson for Finance. Maybe she’s an option for Finance minister this time around.
More to come in our BC Election 2024 News Section.
===== RELATED:
- Choosing a Speaker can be tricky (October 30, 2024)
- First day on the new job for Eby & Rustad (October 29, 2024)
- Dana Lajeunesse pulls it off for BC NDP in Juan de Fuca-Malahat (October 28, 2024)
- Darlene Rotchford delivers slam dunk for BC NDP in Esquimalt-Colwood (October 27, 2024)
- Grinding through the process for final BC Election 2024 results over the Oct 26-27 weekend (October 27, 2024)
- BC NDP candidates still leading in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre (October 26, 2024)
- Over 66,000 mail-in, special & absentee ballots to be counted this weekend (October 25, 2024)
- BC provincial election final count coming up Oct 28 (October 24, 2024)
- Tight race in Juan de Fuca-Malahat exposes long-time political divide (October 20, 2024)
- Elections BC announces full list of provincial candidates: 93 NDP, 93 Conservative, 69 Green (September 29, 2024)
- Early push: Elections BC says people can start voting today (September 21, 2024)
- David Eby’s Cabinet in December 2022 (December 7, 2022)
- NEWS SECTIONS: BC PROVINCIAL ELECTION 2024