Home Election Tracker Canadian Federal 2025 Immigration cap to pause population growth & ease up on housing demand

Immigration cap to pause population growth & ease up on housing demand

Marginal population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 & 2026.

marc miller, justin trudeau, immigration
Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship announces new immigration plan along with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Oct 24, 2024 in Ottawa. [CPAC.ca]
BC 2024 Provincial Election news analysis

Thursday October 24, 2024 | OTTAWA, ON

by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends


Today in Ottawa, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and federal Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller announced Canada’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.

The plan is intended to “pause population growth in the short term to achieve well-managed, sustainable growth in the long term”.

Today’s plan focuses on the needs of people who are “already here”, said Miller. That includes allowing the market to catch up on housing supply.

marc miller, justin trudeau, immigration
Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship announces new immigration plan along with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Oct 24, 2024 in Ottawa. [CPAC.ca]

“For the first time ever, the levels plan includes controlled targets for temporary residents, specifically international students and foreign workers, as well as for permanent residents,” it was stated in a federal government news release this morning.

Marginal population decline in 2025 and 2026:

The federal government expects that their 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan will result in a marginal population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to a population growth of 0.8% in 2027.

Population replacement by resident Canadians is near net-zero in this decade (i.e. births are nearly not surpassing deaths). Canada’s population is also aging; in 2015 the median age was 39.6 years while in 2023 it was a bit higher at 40.3 years.

camosun college, open house, 2024
Open house at Camosun College on Nov 2, 2024.

Record-setting population growth in 2022 due to immigration:

As of June 2023 Canada’s population had just surpassed 40 million after a record-setting year of growth in 2022.

canada population, 40 million
Canada’s population reached 40 million on June 16, 2023. [Stats Canada]

In 2022, Canada’s population grew by an unprecedented 1.1 million people, most of them permanent and temporary immigrants.

Across multiple immigration streams:

“These forecasts account for today’s announcement of reduced targets across multiple immigration streams over the next two years, as well as expected temporary resident outflows resulting from the 5% target, natural population loss and other factors,” it was stated in today’s federal news release.

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“We continue to be an open country but the volume has been of concern,” said Miller today. This is a “controlled immigration plan that we can be proud of”.

Reducing permanent resident targets:

The plan reduces Canada’s permanent resident targets. Compared to the 2023 immigration plan, the immigration reduction plan announced on October 24, 2024 will:

  • reduce from 500,000 permanent residents to 395,000 in 2025
  • reduce from 500,000 permanent residents to 380,000 in 2026
  • set a target of 365,000 permanent residents in 2027
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Reducing temporary resident volumes:

The Levels Plan also supports efforts to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

Building strong communities:

Today Trudeau said that he wants to see Canada build strong diverse communities, adding that “differences must be a source of strength not weakness”.

justin trudeau, prime minister
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during immigration plan announcement, Oct 24, 2024. [CPAC.ca]

Trudeau said that immigration is “vital to our future” and that he wants to “make sure the pride and faith in immigration is not undermined”.

Trudeau pointed out the disruptive impact of the COVID pandemic, including not having enough workers for jobs that help keep the economy running. Construction and health-care are key areas for employment by immigrant residents, said Miller.

marc miller, immigration minister
Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship in Ottawa, Oct 24, 2024. [CPAC.ca]

Businesses should not rely on “cheap foreign labour”, said Trudeau. “We need provinces and territories to work closely with us too.”

Comment from NDP Leader:

“We know that we need immigration,” says federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

“For immigration to work we need to make sure we support newcomers so they can get access to the language training that they need, or they know where they can go to get access to the jobs that fit their skills. We need to know that when people come we’re able to provide them with the support they need to get on their feet and find their way,” said Singh.

“Looking at how we can improve that is something we should always be addressing,” said Singh.

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BC wants more immigration-related support funding:

BC Premier David Eby has a few times in recent months remarked that the federal government should match BC’s immigration support funding with that of Quebec.

david eby, jagmeet singh
BC NDP Leader David Eby on the BC campaign trail in Oct 2024. | Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Ottawa, Oct 2024. [composite]

In reply to a question today about that from Island Social Trends [approx 25 min 40 sec at CPAC October 24, 2024 livestream audio], federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said: “The concerns raised by BC Premier Eby are legitimate concerns.”

“We’ve got to always look at how we can improve the federal government’s contribution towards helping people not just get into the country but also make a good life here,” said Singh.

ist main, bank of canada
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