Friday August 23, 2024 | LANGFORD, BC [Updated at 1 pm]
BC 2024 Election Analysis | by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Now that the BC Greens have quietly slotted their candidate into place in Langford-Highlands, election campaign momentum will build more stridently in the newly created electoral area.
Langford-Highlands encompasses two municipal populations — the robust urbanizing City of Langford and the District of Highlands where holding onto environment-first is sought.
The outgoing Langford-Juan de Fuca riding has also included Sooke and the stretch of Juan de Fuca territory as far out as Port Renfrew as well as East Sooke, all of which now drops out of sight in the new Langford-Highlands paradigm.
The focus on Langford:
So the heat is on for current Langford-Juan de Fuca MLA Ravi Parmar to now focus his BC NDP Langford-Highlands campaign almost entirely in Langford, though he continues to undertake joint ‘west shore MLA’ events with neighbouring NDP MLA Mitzi Dean (whose riding territory is shifting from Esquimalt-Metchosin to the new Esquimalt-Colwood).
While Parmar has been politically present in Sooke over the past year, he seems to enjoy the focus on Langford where he grew up and built his political career on the Sooke School District 62 (SD62) board. Most SD62 schools are in Langford, Colwood and Sooke.
Having been former BC Premier John Horgan’s pick and successor (Horgan served as MLA during 2005-2023 in what has most recently been Langford-Juan de Fuca), Parmar still has that wind behind his sails. And there is no doubt that as an incumbent MLA he has greater depth of knowledge about the riding and about what the current government has been doing in the way of policy and action.
Momentum for change:
But this is a tough election. The overall population of the province wants change after all the socioeconomic crises and challenges of the pandemic and the bumpy recovery phase that has followed.
That desire for change is visceral as a natural response to difficult socioeconomic times. The impact of a push for change befalls many a long-standing government.
The BC NDP has been in power since 2017 and is now on their second premier (the torch was handed to David Eby in 2022 when Horgan stepped back from the top job).
People who do well financially may be tired of the ‘people first’ approach of the NDP, regardless of how necessary that continues to be for families with young children, for young adults, for seniors, and others who can’t battle their way robustly in the mainstream economic game.
And while some parties may think they could do better at the bigger picture stuff like health-care and natural resources, the BC NDP government has been doing what government needs to do.
The NDP under Horgan inherited a deficit of services for everyday people and a serious lag in infrastructure development in the way of hospitals, schools and roads. By the time the NDP government has put most of that back on track, they are in some ways worn out by the work and embattled by the politics to make it happen.
Harris did well in 2023 by-election:
BC Conservative candidate for Langford-Highlands, Mike Harris, is probably still thinking that he has a strong chance given his second-place finish against Parmar in the June 2023 by-election in Langford-Juan de Fuca (benefiting from overall pushback against some NDP policies). But he is not a polished politician.
Harris connects well with the local folks and will probably rely on the Langford mainstream business community and the overall province-wide momentum of the BC Conservatives, in order to draw out the right-leaning vote.
Harris has not yet had any local public appearances with BC Conservative Leader John Rustad. He possibly has good financial backing from larger business players in the Langford area.
BC United business vote:
BC United candidate Sean Flynn is also new to politics and brings a military background. He is not widely known among voters in Langford or Highlands and will need to rely on strong BC United Party marketing to make a dent in the election outcome.
Flynn will be there on the ballot for voters who won’t vote progressive and may meanwhile be turned off by the BC Conservative campaign. He will likely get votes from people who are focused on business in the local region or affiliated with the military. A local campaign event with the party leader could help.
But the overall BC United Party momentum could yet be stymied by confusion over the new party name and the political baggage that party leader Kevin Falcon carries from the 2001-2017 BC Liberal years.
BC Greens late to the game:
Late in the game to present a candidate for their party in this key south Vancouver Island riding (where population growth is surging and schools are bursting at the seams), the BC Greens have finally found a candidate for Langford-Highlands (news release to announce her candidacy was issued on August 20).
A hotel/restaurant operator, Erin Cassels is young and her name is known to nearly no one. Her Indigenous self-identification will play well but as Algonquin she is not of local BC First Nations background which may matter to some. She may play up her academic trail through UVic, Camosun and Cornell University.
Cassels may find a local advantage in drawing out the women’s vote.
Now Parmar’s to lose:
This is now Parmar’s riding to lose. He is the best known of the candidates and most certainly has the strength of the BC NDP organizational ground game to his advantage. And he seems to have Premier David Eby’s stamp of approval.
Parmar still draws from his connections in the world of BC education, recently out door-knocking with former Nanaimo school board chair and BC School Trustees Association past-president Stephanie Higginson (who is running as the BC NDP candidate in Ladysmith-Oceanside). He held a hastily organized joint news conference with SD62 school board chair Amanda Dowhy last week.
Parmar’s politics is hardline against the former BC Liberals (now the BC United Party) as to the damage that the previous government (2001-2017) inflicted on health-care workers, teachers and schools which translated into hard or disappointing times for many families.
Parmar’s gut-level fire against the now BC United is shared by most BC NDP MLAs who will have his back on affordability issues.
If progressive voters in Langford-Highlands lean to Green that will siphon away votes from the NDP. If that sort of Green turnout diminishes Parmar’s following to any substantial degree, the result for voters in Langford-Highlands could be seeing the BC Conservative candidate win by carrying the bulk of the center-right vote.
Local remnants:
Langford-Highlands also bears remnants of the longtime local polarization between the former Premier John Horgan (people first) and former Langford Mayor Stew Young (business first) who both maintained a robust competitive local following in the Langford region for decades.
Horgan and Young lived in the same general area of south Langford for decades but politically were universes apart.
Parmar played to both sides of the Horgan-Young fence over his years on the SD62 Board (2014-2023), with most of those years as board chair. In the October 2022 BC school trustee election and then also in the June 2023 Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election Parmar benefited by political counsel and campaign support from both teams.
But some people have been heard saying that while they respected and admired Horgan’s politics (even if they weren’t regularly an NDP voter) that as a person, Parmar is not Horgan. And those who’ve had business allegiance over the years to Young’s footprint may have had to move on.
The power of voting:
The best gift that Langford voters in particular can give themselves is to actually get out and vote, and not let the undercurrent of political mechanics end up producing a result that they do not want.
Politicians who do not win elections are often heard to end up saying two well-known missives: ‘the voters are always right’ and ‘voters get the government that they deserve’. Either or both of those sentiments will be felt in Langford-Highlands if the voter turnout is not robust from all sides in the riding.
Campaign teams in this upcoming 2024 BC provincial election campaign will work hard to reach voters and attempt to influence them through door-knocking, social media, paid advertising and signage. Voters that are most motivated will produce the winners in this race.
Election timeline:
- The writ drops on Saturday September 21 to start the official campaign for the 2024 BC provincial election across 93 ridings.
- Advance voting will be held on October 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16.
- Election day for the 2024 BC Provincial election is Saturday October 19.
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- BC election ‘already in the history books’, says Rustad (June 19, 2024)
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- Premier Eby heats up anti-Conservative election theme (May 14, 2024)
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