Thursday July 4, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Updated July 5, 2024]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
The stepping-down of MLA Rob Fleming is big news. He won’t be seeking re-election in this fall’s provincial election.
Fleming remains as MLA of Victoria-Swan Lake and as Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure right up to when the Writ drops on September 21. In fact, he will be part of a news conference about BC’s electricity needs in Victoria tomorrow.
In addition to being a high-profile cabinet minister since 2017 (education then transportation and infrastructure) within nearly 20 years of being in elected politics, Fleming is one of the best party motivators and fundraising influencers.
From his letter posted in social media today, it sounds like he will still be robustly involved in helping the BC NDP win the upcoming election.
Shifting times:
This announcement comes amidst the cut and thrust of opposition parties (particularly the Conservatives of BC) that the NDP won’t have the same traction in this election as they have in years past.
No doubt, the shift in energy and tone since former Premier John Horgan left who post in 2022 and current Premier David Eby filling that role, has given room for thought for those who grew up in the system through building the party.
Horgan built over many decades (he was elected in 2005 but even before that was instrumental in bringing the NDP to the forefront in this province).
Or just simply, time passes. Many of the BC NDP MLAs have been in politics a very long time. They may just be ready for something different and/or recognizing how a fast-paced political life has impacts on one’s health, family life, and time for other things.
Not running again after long and/or distinguished careers as NDP MLAs: Harry Bains, Bruce Ralston, Murray Rankin, Katrine Conroy, George Heyman, Nick Simons, Katrina Chen, and Selina Robinson.
There is no candidate yet from BC United or the Conservative Party of BC (probably both waiting to see whether Fleming would be running again), and no announcement yet of who will run from the BC NDP to hope to fill Rob Fleming’s big shoes.
It’s interesting that the BC Greens came out early in announcing their candidate in Victoria-Swan Lake (Christina Winter). The Greens will not be running candidates in every riding but have choosing their best bets strategically.
There has been a lot of momentum in recent months by the Conservative Party of BC that has been essentially been an open door for anyone with political aspirations (their eager sign-up of candidates has met with some mishaps due to vetting that wasn’t thorough enough). They currently have 71 candidates.
The conservative momentum is largely about backlash against much of the left-leaning and modernization of society that the NDP government has been achieving provincially (and the Liberal/NDP federal). The pendulum swings back to what the contenders are calling ‘common sense’.
But voters who right now are frustrated may not realize what a large number of people would soon dearly miss if various support programs are cut under a Conservative or BC United majority government.
93 ridings:
There are 93 electoral areas for the 2024 BC Provincial election, up from 87 in the previous election (mostly due to population growth but with some interesting new riding boundaries).
Winning 47 seats will be required to barely form a majority government, with 50 being safer (as at least one MLA would be appointed as speaker of the house and absences on legislative voting days can occur).
===== RELATED:
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat race heating up in Sooke (June 29, 2024)
- BC election ‘already in the history books’, says Rustad (June 19, 2024)
- Government’s job to keep running the province (June 18, 2024)
===== RESOURCES:
- Island Social Trends BC Election Resource Page (candidates & campaigns, voting, past articles & analysis)
- NEWS SECTIONS: POLITICS | BC ELECTION 2024
- SUBSCRIBE TO THE PRINT/PDF EDITION (and get breaking news by text, too!)
===== ABOUT THE WRITER:
Mary P Brooke is the editor of Island Social Trends, a publication she launched in 2020 to explore the socioeconomic and political dynamics of the south Vancouver Island region, BC politics, and national issues.
Island Social Trends publishes daily at IslandSocialTrends.ca and bi-weekly in print. Premium Subscribers may purchase the PDF version of the print edition, which is delivered by email (as well as breaking news by text message).
Ms Brooke lived in Sooke for 10 years, where she launched MapleLine Magazine (2008-2010) and then the weekly printed newspaper Sooke Voice News (2011-2013). During 2014-2020 she launched and ran West Shore Voice News, then moving to Langford in 2017.
When the pandemic hit in 2020, Ms Brooke shifted to posting her regional socioeconomic news insights and political analysis daily at IslandSocialTrends.ca and wrote extensively about the pandemic for a provincial audience. She now reports on provincial news issues alongside the BC Legislative Press Gallery.
The Island Social Trends print edition is back up and running on a bi-weekly basis. Subscribers welcome (individual, small teams, corporate).