Sunday November 10, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 11:29 pm]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Vancouver on November 8 for a short reminder about the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund for municipalities and Indigenous communities.
He also met privately with BC NDP Premier David Eby (no details have been released about that meeting). There is a great deal of crossover in policy development between the federal Liberals and the BC NDP government especially around housing but also the toxic drug crisis (decriminalization) and border issues (related to crime).
There was also a Liberal fundraising event in Vancouver on Friday evening and there’s another one coming up on November 14.
Today the Prime Minister’s office announced a by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City in the lower mainland area for December 16, 2024. That riding was represented by John W. Aldag as a Liberal MP from 2015 to 2019 and again from 2021 to May 2024 (resigning to run as a BC NDP candidate in the BC Provincial Election on October 19 in Langley-Abbotsford, where he lost to the BC Conservative candidate). Their new candidate is businesswoman Madison Fleischer.
Next federal election in 2025:
The next federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025 but could come sooner if the Liberals lose confidence of the House of Commons or Trudeau himself calls an election on his own timing.
At this point, Trudeau is heading into his 10th year as prime minister. With Trump having won the 2024 US Presidential election, it’s possible that Trudeau wants to not see Canada rush into a federal election before the scheduled election date, so that the federal government has time to adapt to the new US administration (Trump will be sworn in on January 20, 2025).
All the recent fuss about whether Trudeau should step down in time for another Liberal to lead the party into the next election seems to be from backbenchers who might be worried about the Liberal fate in the next election (based on polls and what they say they hear in their constituencies). Their angst has been handily dismissed by Trudeau.
It’s perhaps not clear to some of the backbenchers that their political careers exist in large part only because of Trudeau’s ability to have formed a ‘big tent’ party.
There is apparently no Liberal Party of Canada mechanism to remove a leader. It’s entirely up to the leader as to his own continuation in the role. On October 24 Trudeau told media a simple ‘yes’ he will be running as Liberal leader in the next federal election.
Liberal popularity:
Polls evidently show unpopularity for the prime minister and low voter preference for the Liberals to form the next government.
Polls are a snapshot in time and thereby not always reliable (respondents may have multiple reasons to not reveal their true position). Poll trends and results often change once an election date is firmly announced.
Trudeau has surprised the country before — first by bringing the Liberals from nearly nothing to holding a majority government in 2015, then continuing to reshape the country through re-election in 2019 and then in the 2021 election capitalizing on having guided the country through the COVID-19 pandemic. [See Canadian Federal Election dates, 1993 to present]
The Trudeau way:
Trudeau walks to the beat of his own sense of mission for Canada. So while he engages with a full range of political practicalities he attunes to something more than just winning.
By hoping to stay on for a fourth term he obviously seeks to further sculpt the country in directions for the future. Compare Canada of 2015 to today — yes there are major problems with the economy– notably the cost of living, housing, racism and immigration — but overall the culture of Canada is heading toward greater tolerance and achievement.
However, Trudeau’s initial promises to youth and the middle class have largely gone unfulfilled. There’s been no robust innovation in the economy to bring people out of their cost-of-living struggles and housing supply is woefully inadequate.
Trudeau seems to have been not fully in touch with regard to the eroding well-being of households, the housing market, and the health-care system, in ways that will take years if not decades to repair.
The middle class dream has been lost for many in this country over the past 10 years. That’s not all within the power of a federal government to control (there are global economic factors and unexpected events like pandemics and the cost of supporting war efforts overseas).
Housing (whether by paying a mortgage or rent) has become grossly unaffordable for many; this will continue to contribute to a livability decline that contributes to mental health strain and poverty, and for some a spiral of addiction.
Federal issues in BC:
Lower mainland issues include housing densification, transport (major port at Vancouver), and energy (Trans Mountain Pipeline delivers to the coast at Burnaby) while in BC overall there are key issues around environment, immigration and the border, and the toxic drug crisis.
Trudeau said on Friday that Fry (first elected in 1993) is an “amazing advocate for social housing for Vancouver Centre and for families right across the country”.
Liberal MPs in BC:
There are currently 14 Liberal MPs in BC. All of those MPs are on the BC mainland.
The NDP has held a stronghold for years in six of the seven federal ridings on Vancouver Island (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke has been held by NDP MP Randall Garrison since 2011 and Cowichan-Malahat-Langford has been held by NDP MP Alistair MacGregor since 2015).
Some Liberal MPs have already announced they are not seeking re-election including Carla Qualtrough (Delta) and Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra).
At the housing announcement event on November 8 the prime minister also acknowledged Taleeb Noormohamed (MP for Vancouver-Granville since 2021) and Wilson Miao (MP for Richmond Centre since 2021) as “two great members of our BC team”.
Visits to Victoria:
High-profile Liberal MPs in BC include Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver) has handled the natural resources file with crossover issues in Environment and Terry Beech (Burnaby North-Seymour) who has risen to cabinet as Minister of Citizens’ Services after serving as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard and handling portfolios in science, transport and economic development.
Both have made appearances in Victoria in recent months: Wilkinson at a BC heat pump subsidy announcement in May and Beech at UVic alongside Trudeau for a research funding announcement in April.
Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South) has served since 2015. A former defence minister, he is presently Minister of Emergency Preparedness and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada.
Past Liberal candidates:
Some previous local federal Liberal candidates have included:
- Doug Kobayashi who ran in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke in 2021; now Mayor of Colwood since 2022.
- Jamie Hammond who ran in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke in 2019.
- Blair Herbert who ran in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford in 2019 and 2021.
- David Merner who ran for the Liberals in 2015 (then later for the Greens in 2019).
Candidates on south Vancouver Island:
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke on Vancouver Island, former View Royal mayor David Screech is hoping to be the Liberal candidate in the next federal election. The NDP have current Sooke Mayor Maja Tait in place as their federal candidate in ESS. The Conservative candidate hopeful in ESS is Tracy Foran.
In Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, NDP MP Alistair MacGregor (first elected in 2015) will be running again in 2025.
===== RELATED:
- Infrastructure key to housing growth & densification says Trudeau (November 10, 2024)
- Trudeau looks forward to a more competitive North America & working with Trump (November 8, 2024)
- Trudeau says “Yes!”, he’s staying on as federal Liberal leader (October 24, 2024)
- Former View Royal mayor eyes federal Liberal chances in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (May 3, 2024)
- Budget 2024: Trudeau highlights university research funding with visit to UVic (April 19, 2024)
- Maja Tait kickstarts her federal campaign in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (September 1, 2023)
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