Home Election Tracker Canadian Federal 2025 Electoral momentum in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke

Electoral momentum in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke NDP candidate Maja Tait says there could be a by-election soon.

jagmeet singh, maja tait, randall garrison, ndp
NDP candidate for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke Maja Tait was launched on national TV in August 2023, with NDP Party Leader Jagmeet Singh and current MP Randall Garrison. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]
BC 2024 Provincial Election news analysis

Friday June 21, 2024 | COLWOOD & SOOKE, BC [Updated June 22, 2024]

by Mary P Brooke, Editor | Island Social Trends


The winds of change are blowing in Colwood and Sooke.

Current Member of Parliament for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Randall Garrison, will reportedly soon be relocating from his Colwood home.

As recently as April of this year, Garrison has done an effective job of telling people that he would stay on until the end of the present term. But that now seems perhaps not to be the case.

randall garrison, april 2024
Randall Garrison, MP, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke at an NDP event in April 2024. [Island Social Trends]

A few months ago Garrison was a key backroom player at the nomination of Colin Plant as the NDP candidate for Saanich-Gulf Islands. Then there were only a few more weeks to go in Ottawa, and now the House of Commons is off for the summer.

maja tait, sooke mayor
District of Sooke Mayor Maja Tait, March 25, 2024. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]

Like many MPs, since the pandemic Garrison has done more House of Commons work remotely from home. That also saves on travel costs and reduces air travel carbon emissions.

Garrison was first elected in 2011, then re-elected in 2015, 2019 and 2021 (all of that underpinned by the strong BC NDP network). In that timeline he was instrumental in getting the riding name changed to include Sooke (2013), bringing Jagmeet Singh into leadership of the party (2017), and for years has kept an eye on Sooke Mayor Maja Tait as his eventual replacement.

Moving up the timeline:

Garrison told Island Social Trends in April that he would stay on until the end of his term. Timeline on that of course depends on when the next federal election will be held (currently scheduled for October 20, 2025).

sooke night market 2024

But today the NDP candidate for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Maja Tait (who has been Mayor of the District of Sooke since 2014) said she could be already running in a by-election in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke later this year.

Island Social Trends learned this from Tait who was out mingling at a District of Metchosin event this afternoon. Metchosin will be wiithin her future riding if she wins as MP for the area.

maja tait, sooke mayor
NDP candidate for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke at a District of Metchosin event, June 21, 2024. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]

Tait says a win in late 2024 would help her be part of the federal NDP caucus team in Ottawa when the House of Commons gets back to business in January 2025 after winter break.

Tait has already had a few debut moments in the national public eye. She did two national TV spots with NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh — one in Sooke in August 2023 about the cost of living (along with Garrison), and another in Esquimalt in March about rental housing protection (along with Victoria MP Laurel Collins).

district of sooke

If Tait is federally successful in 2024 or 2025 that would further open a municipal by-election for Mayor in the District of Sooke.

Teeing up ESS for the next election:

The federal Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke electoral area includes Esquimalt, Metchosin, View Royal, Colwood, Sooke, and the Esquimalt, Songhees and T’Sou-ke Nations.

For the 2021 federal election there were 103,129 registered voters in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (population base 128,644 in 2021).

The NDP currently holds six of the seven federal seats on Vancouver Island and clearly aims to maintain that stronghold.

esquimalt saanich sooke, map, federal
Federal riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke with boundaries unchanged since 2013. [Elections Canada]

The federal Liberal caucus will be holding a retreat in September, reportedly in Nanaimo. The Liberals do hold some seats in BC, but not on Vancouver Island. The Liberal party may be considering former View Royal Mayor David Screech as their candidate for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.

Results of the by-election next week (June 24, 2024) in the Ontario federal riding of Toronto-St Paul’s could influence decision-making by the federal Liberals as to election timing for 2025.

So far there does not seem to be a confirmed Conservative federal candidate in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, though reportedly there are presently four contenders for the nomination.

dumont tirecraft, sooke

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News about politics within IslandSocialTrends.ca .

===== ABOUT THE WRITER:

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Island Social Trends Editor Mary P Brooke

Island Social Trends Editor Mary P Brooke has been covering news of the Sooke and west shore regions since 2008. During 2014-2020 her local news reporting focussed on the west shore (Langford and Colwood).

In 2020 Ms Brooke began covering provincial politics with a focus at first on the COVID pandemic; now she reports alongside the BC Legislative Press Gallery.

In 2022 Mary P Brooke ran for school trustee in Sooke School District SD62 (Belmont Zone / west shore side). In 2023 she was nominated for a Jack Webster Foundation journalism award for her community-support through journalism. In 2024 Ms Brooke launched a non-profit society to support the South Vancouver Island region in areas of Urban Food Resilience.

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