Friday October 18, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Updated 1 pm]
BC ELECTION CAMPAIGN DAY 28 of 28
Political editorial analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Your 28-day voter’s guide for BC Election 2024
There is a “huge risk in this election”, says BC NDP Leader David Eby.
“If they don’t want to wake up on Sunday morning and see a Premier John Rustad … turning back progress on/.. (he lists off a few things),” speaking in Coquitlam this morning ahead of at least three more campaign stops in the lower mainland today (North Vancouver, Surrey twice, and Maple Ridge).
To some folks this may sound like fear-mongering, but for anyone who lived through the BC Liberals time as government (2001-2017) they will understand the context. “A more expensive, meaner and more difficult province” is how Eby described a future under a possible BC Conservative government, as a way of reflecting back on the pre-NDP government that has governed now since 2017.
Eby says a vote for the BC NDP is about “ensuring this is an amazing place where everyone feels welcome”. This sociocultural aspect of living in BC is very important as it quietly underpins success in many other areas of service delivery and safety.
But people who like free enterprise in the BC economy have been feeling constrained in the last few years (including things like short-term rental investment being suffocated). Some financially stable folks are heard to complain that they didn’t get any of the affordability credits of the past few years; perhaps they should be glad that the people who really need them are being kept afloat in part because of those supports.
“This is the election, the time for all of us to stick together. Child care, new schools and hospitals, roads and transit,” said Eby in Coquitlam today. “Now is not the time to cut or increase expenses for people. We can only do it if we stick together.”
Eby says their costed program and clear commitments are what people should be voting to support, including around health care, child care, schools, and (avoiding) tax cuts. “We will stay focused on your priorities”, said Eby today.
Thirty-two media events:
This was apparently Eby’s 32nd media availability during the campaign. But access has been brief (certainly not at every campaign stop) and many times the online dial-in media questions were deliberately not picked up.
While it’s an understandable sentiment, today Eby said he’s glad the campaign is on the last day — did he mean for that to be heard live? He showed some signs of being fully played-out after speaking at the BC NDP rally in Victoria-Beacon Hill a few days ago, retreating to the side of the room for a moment to regroup.
Being in front of people:
Eby told media today that it’s been “an intense campaign” but that “it’s been absolutely critical to show up in this campaign, to be in front of British Columbians to be able to answer them directly”.
“We can’t do our jobs if you’re not connected to people in their communities,” said Eby today, as a manner of comparison. Some of the BC Conservative candidates across BC who are essentially fly-in candidates to fill a ballot slot (hence the eclectic array of candidates who hardly seem prepared for contributing to provincial governance but which BC Conservative Leader John Rustad has not dropped because he wants a full-on 93-riding competition).
Just showing up:
“We have left nothing on the table. I have no regrets about this campaign, we’ve done all we can,” said Eby today, even though in 28-day retrospect there have been no remarkable moments, just showing up for sign-waving and cameras.
“Showing up was on our agenda,” he said. On this last day he reminds volunteers and supporters to get “cards on doors – every door is going to count”.
The brewing frustration for people over the past few years in BC — tough post-pandemic socioeconomic conditions, racism challenges, public safety issues — has manifested as wanting change — perhaps at any cost.
But just showing up may not have been enough in this campaign to stave off the ‘change at any cost’ momentum.
Eby seems not to have really absorbed how people’s anger and frustration at the current economy that (even though in many ways is due to bigger economic factors) will bring out the ‘change-vote’. People who ‘just want change’ will vote for the other party regardless of outcome.
Eby seems to have been a victim of long-time BC NDP campaign organizers who follow an old paradigm of ‘stick it in your face and they will vote’. For example, in the riding where this editor lives now five glossy colour printed flyers for the BC NDP campaign have arrived at the door or by mail for just one candidate. Getting out into community is refreshing for voters, all the while knowing there are many private get-togethers by all parties as they execute their campaigns.
Voters are more thoughtful nowadays, and many are angry at the challenges of life in 2024. This makes most would-be voters react, and some will actually dig deeper into the issues. The BC Greens have capitalized on this new awakening among voters, who want to see beyond the polarized two-party options in provincial elections. However, that could siphon votes away from the BC NDP and result in their undesired outcome of a strong BC Conservative result on election night.
Returning a BC NDP government:
Island Social Trends sticks by our October 16 prediction that the BC NDP will likely return to government with a very slim majority (51 seats, where 47 are needed to form a majority) or even a large minority (slightly less than 47).
Either way the BC NDP will depend on any BC Green MLAs in order to soften the blows that will come from a robust official opposition formed by the BC Conservatives.
Like any majority government that returns with a lesser count but retains a minority, the message from voters is — despite all good intentions — to be more attentive to the impact of policies on people as they govern. It’s difficult for a people-first premier to maintain the common touch given all the pressures of the big government machine.
And while Eby has seemed oftentimes awkward on the campaign trail he is very much in his element when working the levers of legislation and government. A kinder, more stable BC would be part of the outcome of a BC NDP government for the next four years but unfortunately ‘nice’ doesn’t always sell the way that brash campaign antics do.
Something about the BC NDP campaign in 2024 has been lacking… a verve, a flash of fun, a new reason for voters to hold on. Not a single long-time BC NDP voter should have been doubting their voter sensibilities. If young voters tip to voting BC Conservative, the BC NDP needs to rethink what’s been happening over the past few years under their watch.
To be fair, perhaps there is never any changing of minds among people who focus only on their own success.
Getting more women into politics is a BC NDP strength but in this election many of the new female candidates are entirely inexperienced at the provincial level or in politics at all. This will erode some voter support.
As demonstrated in this 2024 campaign, the NDP party has fallen in love with its belief in ‘things that work’ in terms of campaign mechanics. But they may lose voters who just don’t see a lot of sparkle.
It’s tough to do ‘sparkle’ when the weight of a province is on your shoulders. Eby brings credibility to BC on the broader political stage in Canada. This perspective is also worth considering for voters who want BC to embrace a stable future.
Election landscape:
The 43rd BC general election is tomorrow, Saturday October 19. [Visit Elections BC Provincial Election 2024]
There are 93 electoral areas across BC.
On Vancouver Island there are 15 ridings, of which eight ridings cover the Greater Victoria capital region.
===== RELATED:
- Where you can vote on October 19: west shore ridings (October 17, 2024)
- Who’s gonna win BC Election 2024? (October 16, 2024)
- NEWS SECTIONS: POLITICS | VANCOUVER ISLAND | BC ELECTION 2024
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