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COVID BC Aug 13: another significant daily case count, and a reminder to stay within bubbles

British Columbians were urged today by Dr Henry to pull back on level of contact outside their bubbles, down to 60% if possible.

COVID cases, August 13 2020
Total cases 4,229 in BC on August 13, 2020, with 78 of those new. [BC Centre for Disease Control]
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Thursday August 13, 2020 | VICTORIA, BC

by Mary Brooke, B.Sc., editor | West Shore Voice News

The number of new test-positive cases of COVID-19 in BC has jumped by 78 in the last 24 hours, in the same range as yesterday’s 85 one-day increase as reported in the August 13 BC Centre for Disease Control (BC CDC) stats. Case counts today and in recent days are back up to levels not seen since April in the earlier stages of the pandemic in BC.

From 3,615 tests done in the last day, that number of new cases is 2.15% of tests down (down from 2.85% of tests reported August 12 and also lower than 2.2% on August 11). Yesterday there were 85 new cases, on the tail of 46 new cases of COVID-19 in BC on Tuesday. Before that, 131 cases were announced on Monday (that figure encompassed three days — August 8, 9, 10 — at 36.5 cases per day).

This puts the average number of cases at about 66.5 this week, compared to last week (cases produced over the BC Day long weekend) in the 47 range. The week before that, new daily case numbers were in the 20s range.

Presently 1,878 people are in a period of 14-day self-isolation under the watchful eye of public health, for having been exposed or potentially exposed to COVID-19 in recent days. Yesterday that tally was 1,917 people.

BC CDC, cases by day, COVID, August 13 2020
Timeline of incoming test-positive cases of COVID-19 in BC (January 1 to August 13, 2020). The summer months of July and August have seen case rates similar to the beginning phase of the pandemic in March and April. [BC Centre for Disease Control]

Hospitalizations:

Today’s stats from the BC CDC show nine people in hospital, with four of those in intensive care. In total 550 people have been hospitalized in BC due to COVID-19, said Provincial Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry today.

Provincial Health Officer, Dr Bonnie Henry, August 13 2020
Dr Bonnie Henry during media teleconference on August 13, 2020 in Victoria, providing a more detailed report including some COVID public survey results.

The median age of people who enter hospital for COVID care is in the ‘high 60s’, Dr Henry reported today in her media teleconference.

“Hospitalization is very rare in young people and young adults,” said Dr Henry today. “There are very few who required ICU care.”

Meanwhile, the BC CDC reports today that 3,500 people have recovered from their test-positive COVID infection.

Numbers on the rise:

British Columbians did a good job of flattening the curve and keeping case counts low while everyone was in self-isolation and out of the workforce back in March, April and May. But numbers have been increasing during Phase 3 with the reopening of the economy under various guidelines which has opened up the possibilities for more social interaction.

Premier John Horgan, August 12, 2020, Victoria
Premier John Horgan on August 12, 2020 announcing the upcoming hire of 500 new contact tracers during COVID-19.

Both the Premier and the Provincial Health Officer have indicated in recent weeks and days that it’s a small segment of the population trying to bend the physical distancing rules (i.e. not maintaining physical distancing especially in closed spaces such as private parties) and contributing to this mid-August spike in COVID-19 cases.

Dr Henry says to “stay away from close contact” and to not go to “now other known exposure” areas such as “bars, parties and social events”. A poll by CHEK-TV on their 5 o’clock newscast this evening showed that 78.9% of their viewers today feel that bars and pubs should be closed as part of containing the spread of COVID-19.

What’s different in today’s announcement by Dr Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix is that — finally (by some people’s view), there is a warning that active enforcement will be in place at parties and other activities that can rightfully be attended by enforcement officers (i.e. private events held in public venues).

Meanwhile, private parties in private spaces will still need to be ‘enforced’ for physical distancing by the people themselves at these events, and the organizers of those events.

Most people are on board with flattening the curve:

“What we have been doing has worked, which is why we are where we are,” said Dr Henry today, even though she reported the level of social interaction in the population compared to normal as being around 70% (65% would be better, to keep the curve flatter, she said today). 

Modelling from the BC Centre for Disease Control clearly shows that the curve remains suppressed at a contact rate around 50% of normal, with 60% being tolerable (in terms of resultant load on the health care system).

percent of normal activity, August 13 2020, BC CDC
Dynamic data modelling presented August 13, 2020 shows how 60% or even 50% of normal contact outside our bubbles is needed to keep a flattened COVID-19 curve in BC. Presently the rate is about 70%, with a concomitant increase in cases. [BC CDC]

“It’s a very small proportion of population that are doing things causing the spread we are seeing. The vast majority of us are weathering this together. It’s the only way we will get through this in the coming months and years,” the Provincial Health Officer said, who is now infamous for her reminder to “be calm, be kind, and be safe”.

Working with star power:

Health Minister, Adrian Dix, August 13 2020
Health Minister Adrian Dix on August 13, 2020 during press briefing in Victoria.

Appealing to celebrities to carry the physical-distancing message to people in their teens and 20s is an odd thing to see a Premier doing in a media conference. It might seem innovative, but seems to show a lack of communications effectiveness by public health if all that’s left is to reach out in such a haphazard manner to people whose main occupation is the glitz of stardom.

However, today it was repeated by Health Minister Adrian Dix that efforts to this effect, via social media or celebrities, are in the works. In some things in life, it does come down to “whatever it takes”.

Tracing the cases:

More contact tracers are being hired to help with the load of that work during the upcoming fall-winter respiratory illness season (commonly called ‘flu season’). About 500 temporary positions will be filled by retired nurses and recent nurse graduates, said Premier John Horgan yesterday in a media conference in Victoria.

Today Provincial Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry emphasized the importance of the expanded contact tracing workforce.

COVID by age:

On August 13, there are two new cases reported in children under the age of 10, and eight new cases in ages 10 to 19. That’s an increase of 10 youth cases in 24 hours as now 278 children and youth have in total contracted the COVID-19 infection in BC (94 children under age 10 and 184 youth in the 10-19 age group).

Today Dr Henry pointed out that while about two percent of COVID cases in BC have occured in children under age 10, the population of kids in that age group in the total BC population is nine percent. She also contributed that about four percent of COVID cases have been in youth and teens (ages 10 to 19) while that age grouping contains 10% of the general population.

Regarding all children under age 19, Dr Henry said today: “Only three have required hospitalization, nobody needed to be in ICU, and there have been no deaths.”

The young adult age grouping of 20-29 years saw the highest number of new cases again today — i.e. 29 cases (on top of 24 yesterday), bringing that age group to 788 cases in BC. That’s 18.4% of all cases in BC (up from 18.2% yesterday).

age profile, COVID, August 13 2020
As of August 13, 2020 there are 4,274 cases of COVID-19 in BC (45 of which are epi-linked), shown here by age grouping. Today there are 78 new cases, including two in children under age 10. and eight cases in youth ages 10 to 19. [BC Centre for Disease Control]

In the mid-adult age groupings (ages 30-39, 40-49, and 50-59), there have been 2,047 infections in BC to date (maintaining the 47.9% of all BC cases as seen yesterday). There were increases in all the sub-groups of that age component today, for a total of 38 new cases: now 775 cases in age 30-39 years; 602 cases in age 40-49 years; and 6670 cases in age 50-59 years.

In the young-senior age group of 60-69 years, there were two new COVID cases today in BC, bringing the total for that age category to 413. Presently, the 60-69 age group comprises 9.7% of all COVID cases in BC to date (a percentage that is declining).

In stark contrast to the beginning of the pandemic in March through May when case counts were high among older seniors and elders, today there were just two new cases in the 70-79 age group, none in the 80-89 age grouping, and two in the 90+ age group.. In total, for all cases in persons over age 70, there have been 703 cases of COVID to date in BC, which represents 16.4% of the total cases in the province.

COVID is a serious illness:

woman, sick, sofa
Even young adults can experience significant fatigue due to COVID-19. [web]

Today’s messaging from Dr Henry included a reminder that COVID-19 can be a serious illness, including in teens and young adults. One of the lingering symptoms is an unshakeable fatigue, to the point of even not having enough energy to sit up, which can last for a long period of time. There can be a shortness of breath that lasts a long time, she reported.

She said that some of the symptoms have to do with “the way our own immune system reacts, and our own genetic makeup”. For some, the reaction to COVID-19 is “severe, and some have long impacts”.

More men than women seem to have increased clotting in their blood due to COVID infection, affecting arteries around the heart, sometimes producing a heart attack. There can be brain injury or a pulmonary embolism in the lungs weeks later.

COVID toes
A cardiovascual reaction on toes — being dubbed ‘COVID-toes’ has been seen in children after infection with COVID-19. [web]

Young teens and adults can have a post viral syndrome involving inflammation of blood vessels, though Dr Henry says no positive cases of MISC (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children) have yet been seen in BC. “But we’re watching for it.”  

“We are learning more (about COVID). There can be long term impacts that can be quite severe” with symptoms that “have lasted weeks or months for some people”.

Vancouver Island COVID profile:

On Vancouver Island there were no new COVID cases today August 13, maintaining the total number of cases at 150.

Case counts on Vancouver Island diminished to zero on many days in May and June, with increases again in July and early August.

Presently there is no one in hospital with COVID-19 on Vancouver Island.

Data modelling update released August 13:

Today Dr Bonnie Henry presented the BC Centre for Disease Control’s seventh data modelling report (dated August 13, 2020) in the COVID-19: Going Forward series of modelling and projections. | More details will be posted in a separate article.

data mdoelling, COVID-19, August 13 2020
The BC CDC’s 7th COVID-19 data modelling presentation was released August 13, 2020.

===== Links:

BC Centre for Disease Control – COVID data

New COVID-19 data modelling report at August 13, 2020 (BC Centre for Disease Control)