Saturday August 3, 2024 | VANCOUVER ISLAND, BC [Updated August 4, 2024 – last update 6:44 pm]
by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Update on August 4:
“Based on current modelling, it’s expected that water will start to move over (overtop) the blockage late on Sunday August 4 or early Monday August 5 and enter the riverbed below the slide site,” says the Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness.
Read Full News Release: Water expected to overtop Chilcotin landslide tonight, early tomorrow (BC Government | August 4, 2024 | 4:41 pm]
On this Saturday August 3, the BC Government called a brief 2 pm news conference to provide an update on the Chilcotin River landslide situation in the Cariboo region of the BC central interior.
This news does not directly impact readers here on Vancouver Island, but shows the provincial government doing their darndest to demonstrate how they are on top of an emergency situation related to environment and/or climate.
Landslides are a natural phenomenon and will happen, say some geo-ecology experts, however there is some discussion as to whether the impact of commercial forestry is part of the current challenges at Chilcotin.
Response to such events is what shows how a government is performing in terms of emergency management.
Second weekend update:
This follows their August 2 update ahead of the BC Day long weekend, in which Bowinn Ma, Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness said: “Whatever we do has to be safe and can’t make things worse.”
Additional debris came down over the embankment in the last day. “We are not surprised by this continuation of activity within the area,” said Connie Chapman, BC water management executive director.
A few models of what could happen if the debris dam breaks. “The models are the best assumption that we have right now,” said Chapman.
“We are not letting our guard down even for a second with this issue. There are still risks including additional landslides,” said Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship, Nathan Cullen.
Evacuation scope:
An evacuation would impact 13 people and 2,500 cattle.
Stay out of the order area:
Minister Ma has said in an earlier briefing: “In the event of the dam collapsing, an outburst of water would flow down the Chilcotin River and into the Fraser River, bringing with it a significant amount of debris. Water levels could increase extremely quickly along the Chilcotin River, as well as in the Fraser River immediately below the confluence to Hope.”
“People need to stay out of the order area,” said Ma on August 3.
Cause of the landslide:
The cause of the landslide is not open for active public discussion right now, said Ma today in a 1 pm press conference. There is some question as to whether commercial logging activity led to the problem.
The danger is about unpredictable water flow. The slide is said to have happened in the middle of the night sometime between July 30-31. An intense thunderstorm over Williams Lake Monday night, July 29 brought with it nearly cm of rain in a short period of time.
“Slow seepage over the top or something more significant,” is how Cullen described the possible flooding potential. “This slide is particularly large.”
Cullen talked about terminal temperatures for salmon as well as stream flow to help mitigate any salmon challenges through the system.
How it happened:
The Chilcotin dam is near Farwell Canyon, about 285 kilometres north of Vancouver, in the Cariboo region of the BC interior.
The landslide blocked the Chilcotin River, which feeds into the Fraser River. The landslide is approximately 22 kilometres upstream from the Farwell Canyon Bridge
They are preparing for potential flooding in the area. They are “dependent on how nature runs its course if it is left without intervention” including the debris flow component.
In 2017 this area was hit hard by wildfires which may have sensitized the area to the impact of water.
On-site data:
On-site data is being received every 12 to 15 minutes. There will be “a number of hours available to us to notify the public of any impending impacts”.
Flooding is anticipated in low level areas but evacuations are not necessarily yet required, said one official during the media briefing.
Emergency preparedness:
Minister Ma reminds all British Columbians to be prepared for any emergency that might present itself. The basics includes having a go-bag prepared for each member of the household or workplace.
The BC long weekend is coming up now through Monday August 5. People will be on the roads travelling or enjoying the outdoors in many areas of the province.
Cariboo region:
The Cariboo region is between the Cariboo Mountains to the east and reaches west across the Fraser River plateau to the Coast Mountains. Major cities in the Cariboo region include 100 Mile House, Williams Lake and Quesnel.
===== RELATED:
Chilcotin landslide update ahead of BC Day weekend (August 2, 2024)