Home Health COVID-19 BC holds the COVID-19 line but PHO expects second wave

BC holds the COVID-19 line but PHO expects second wave

Enjoy your summer, there's more COVID-19 challenge to come

COVID-19 stats
BC CDC dashboard for COVID-19 stats as of 4:30 pm on Thursday May 21, 2020.
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Thursday May 21, 2020 ~ VICTORIA, BC

by Mary Brooke, B.Sc. ~ West Shore Voice News

In British Columbia we have had a combination of “good timing and luck” with regard to flattening the curve against COVID-19, said Provincial Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry today in her COVID-19 media briefing.

“We had the right way of doing the right thing at the right time.  It’s important to have collectiveness in managing these events that really are out of our control,” said Dr Henry today May 21 in Victoria.

Dr Bonnie Henry, May 21 2020
BC Provincial Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry at her May 21, 2020 media briefing.

BC has also benefited by a cooperative population that has for the most part followed public health guidelines including self-isolation and working from home (for over two months now) and physical distancing (since mid-March and going forward still). To some degree this reflects the public’s confidence in their political leadership.

“So much that happened and will happen is that which we cannot control,” said Dr Henry in her opening remarks today. She said that the only way to get through together is “to have that personal accountability to each other in a way that supports each other to get through it”.

Using what is now being a popular metaphor: “We’re all int the same storm, but we’re not in the same boat.” She asks that people make allowances for that. “Everybody has their own experience … in the last few months and what the next few months will be. Compassion and respect for others will get us through this next phase,” the Provincial Health Officer said.

Remaining 100% all in:

Health Minister Adrian Dix
Health Minister Adrian Dix during his COVID-19 press conference on May 21, 2020 in Victoria.

Societal actions such as physical distancing and large sectors of the workforce shifting to working from home have been taken in combination in most people now remembering to wash their hands frequently, cough/sneeze into tissues, wear a mask in public as a way to help prevent spreading COVID-19 droplets to others, and staying home if we are the least bit ill.

BC Health Minister Dix implores British Columbians to continue to be “100 percent all in” in maintaining the public health measures that have contributed to ‘flattening the curve’ of COVID-19 infections in BC.

All of this comes as a second wave of COVID-19 infection is expected this fall, in keeping with the pattern of other known pandemics.

Second wave still to come:

Coronavirus, COVID-19
COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have socioeconomic impacts through to at least Fall 2021. A second wave is expected in Fall 2020.

Historically speaking, every pandemic has had a second wave. That period of higher infection rates on the tail of a first-hit is pretty much expected in a few months’ time as the season of respiratory illnesses arrives in the fall months, lasting through to winter 2021.

Testing for COVID-19 will be included in the usual routine for influenza testing. Today Dr Henry stressed that testing and contact tracing processes will be ready for the upsurge this fall.

The return of viral infection in fall and winter months has to do with weather (viruses tend to do less well in warmer weather), and in the case of COVID-19 because science and public health have not yet provided a vaccine or even a set of known effective treatments.

Likely in BC there will be some degree of heading back indoors into self-isolation this winter, after experimenting with more societal movement in Phase 2 (May 19 to 31) and Phase 3 (this coming June to September) of the Restart BC plan which is considered necessary for economic function and stability.

Schools in BC are presently still slated to open in full function in September, after a test-run coming up in June. However, there will be fewer children in classrooms (aiming to achieve physical distancing), staggered times for arrival, recess, lunch, and departure), and a continuation of remote learning from home in combination with in-class learning.

COVID-19 Stats in BC at May 21:

BC CDC, dashboard, May 21 2020
BC CDC dashboard for COVID-19 stats as of 4:30 pm on Thursday May 21, 2020.

The COVID-19 stats in BC as of May 21 show there have been 2,479 test-positive cases (12 new in the last day); that is comprised of 887 in Vancouver Coastal, 1,223 in Fraser Health, 126 on Vancouver Island, 183 in the Interior region, and 60 in Northern Health.

In BC there have been 152 deaths to date (three in the last day — of those, two were in long term care in the Fraser Health region, and one death in the Vancouver Coastal region). In BC, the death profile shows 95 (62%) among males, while 57 (38%) were female.

COVID-19 has not gone away. There are 307 active cases in BC. Of those, 43 infected people are in hospital (eight presently in critical care or ICU).

In this province, 2,020 people have fully recovered from test-positive cases of COVID-19.

COVID-19 affects all ages:

age distribution, COVID-19
Distribution of COVID-19 test positive cases in BC, by age as of 4:30 pm on May 21, 2020 [BC CDC]

Children who have been tallied by the BC Centre for Disease Control as test-positive for COVID-19 tally at 47 in the age 10 to 19 age group, and 26 in ages below 10 years.

In terms of raw case count, people in the 50 to 59 year age group have seen the highest number of cases (477), followed by the 30 to 39 year age group (418), then the 40-49 age group (373).

In the senior population — which is considered at most risk for serious infection impacts and death due to the COVID-19 virus — the case count tallies are:

  • Age 60 to 69: 320
  • Age 70 to 79: 236
  • Age 80 to 89: 211
  • Age 89+: 122

Indeed, more than 80% of deaths due to COVID-19 in BC have been in the senior population.

Continued COVID-19 outbreaks:

Active outbreaks of COVID-19 continue in long term care and acute care facilities in BC. Currently there are still 17 outbreaks (14 in long term care, three in acute care), but no new outbreaks in those types of facilities, said Dr Henry today. In these facilities where seniors and people with disabilities are cared for, 537 people have been affected (329 residents, 208 staff).

There is one new community outbreak, that being at the Matsqui Institution in Abbotsford in the Fraser Health region. To prevent any additional cases this case was identified early and there has been low-risk of further contact, Dr Henry said today.

The outbreak affecting 36 staff at the United Poultry Co Ltd processing facility in Vancouver has been declared over. “They are up and running again,” the Provincial Health Officer said.

OakTree Naturals, Langford, COVID-19 hours
OakTree Naturals is open 10 am to 5 pm (Monday to Saturday) during COVID-19.