Thursday October 17, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC
BC ELECTION CAMPAIGN DAY 27 of 28
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Your 28-day voter’s guide for BC Election 2024
Advance voting in BC Election 2024 was available on six days during a seven-day time period. Across the province, over one million people (1,001,331) cast their votes.
Voting places were open October 10 to 13 and October 15 to 16, in the days ahead of the Saturday October 19, 2024 43rd BC General Election.
Eight ridings across Greater Victoria:
There are eight provincial electoral areas (ridings) that encompass the 13 municipal areas of Greater Victoria: Esquimalt-Colwood, Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Langford-Highlands, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Saanich North and the Islands, Saanich South, Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria-Swan Lake.
There are 15 ridings on all of Vancouver Island (up from 14 ridings in the 2020 election), so the Greater Victoria area ridings represent over half the island’s votes.
Over the six advance voting days 116,156 people cast their vote in the eight Greater Victoria area ridings. That statistically represents 39.3% of registered voters (as at October 7) in the eight ridings.
- Advance voter turnout was highest in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, with 38.9% of registered voters showing up to vote.
- The second-highest advance vote was in two ridings where some significant political dynamics are at play. Saanich North and the Islands (37.5%) has been held by the BC Greens since 2017 and they don’t want to lose that seat to a robust BC NDP ground game. In Victoria-Beacon Hill (37.2%) BC Green Party Leader is aiming to beat out BC NDP cabinet minister Grace Lore who represents the long-time BC NDP hold on the downtown riding by Carole James and before that Gretchen Brewin.
- The fourth-highest advance voter turnout was in Juan de Fuca-Malahat where the BC NDP hopes to hang onto the riding that was long held by former MLA and Premier John Horgan but where both the BC Greens and BC Conservatives have been well-organized.
- Saanich South and Victoria-Swan Lake are long-established core areas of Greater Victoria. They shared the lowest advance voter turnout percentage (29.1%) but that may only reflect traditional voting patterns as compared to taking advantage of the scheduling flexibility of advance voting spread over the course of a week. Both of those ridings have been long-held by the BC NDP (Saanich South since 2009 and Victoria-Swan lake since 2005).
- Advance voting was lowest on the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend (October 13) and highest across the eight ridings on the last of six advance voting days (October 16).
Candidate notes:
All eight of the Greater Victoria area ridings have Green candidates, which could split the usual NDP vs Conservative outcomes.
Within the eight Greater Victoria area ridings, three high-profile BC NDP MLAs are seeking re-election: Ravi Parmar (in Langford-Highlands), Lana Popham (in Saanich South), and Grace Lore (in Victoria-Beacon Hill).
One party leader is among the Greater Victoria region candidates: BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau (in Victoria-Beacon Hill).
Also see predictions for overall BC Election 2024: Who’s Gonna Win BC Election 2024?
Advance voter turnout:
| Electoral Area | BC 2024 Provincial Party Candidates | Thurs Oct 10 | Fri Oct 11 | Sat Oct 12 | Sun Oct 13 | Tues Oct 15 | Wed Oct 16 | Total (% of total registered voters) | # of Registered Voters (at Oct 7) |
| Esquimalt-Colwood | Camille Currie (Green), Darlene Rotchford (NDP), John Wilson (Conservative) | 2,769 | 2,649 | 2,102 | 1,689 | 3,046 | 3,496 | 15,751 (34.2%) | 46,024 |
| Juan de Fuca-Malahat | David Evans (Green), Dana Lajeunesse (NDP), Marina Sapozhnikov (Conservative) | 2,429 | 1,996 | 1,378 | 1,614 | 2,805 | 3,138 | 13,360 (36.8%) | 36,323 |
| Langford-Highlands | Erin Cassels (Green), Mike Harris (Conservative), Ravi Parmar (NDP) | 2,169 | 1,831 | 1,605 | 1,192 | 2,174 | 2,731 | 11,702 (31.9%) | 36,654 |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | Stephen Andrew (Conservative), Diana Gibson (NDP), Lisa Gunderson (Green) | 3,248 | 2,452 | 2,976 | 1,394 | 2,387 | 3,408 | 16,315 (38.9%) | 41,857 |
| Saanich North and the Islands | Rob Botterell (Green), David Busch (Conservative) Sarah Riddell (NDP) | 3,427 | 3,176 | 2,674 | 1,744 | 3,485 | 3,771 | 18,277 (37.5%) | 48,787 |
| Saanich South | Adam Kubel (Conservative), Lana Popham (NDP), Ned Taylor (Green) | 1,990 | 1,977 | 2,219 | 1,408 | 2,315 | 3,214 | 13,123 (29.1%) | 45,151 |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | Sonia Furstenau (Green), Grace Lore (NDP), Tim Thielmann (Conservative) | 3,121 | 2,742 | 2,276 | 1,705 | 2,763 | 3,385 | 15,992 (37.2%) | 42,933 |
| Victoria-Swan Lake | Nina Krieger (NDP), Tim Taylor (Conservative), Christina Winter (Green) | 1,747 | 1,504 | 2,155 | 1,490 | 2,004 | 2,736 | 11,636 (29.1%) | 40,020 |
| TOTALS | 116,156 (39.3%) | 295,892 |
Big day yet to come:
High advance voting turnout isn’t the whole story.
- In Langford-Highlands the BC Conservatives really feel they have a chance to knock out Ravi Parmar’s chances at re-election; those supporters might be hanging onto their vote for a big bang on Saturday night October 19.
- Victoria-Swan Lake election interest might be suffering from not having any well-known candidate names in that race or perhaps they have a high number of Monday to Friday workers who will show up on a Saturday to vote.
- Saanich South might have a high percentage of Monday-to-Friday workers who are waiting for Saturday to vote.
Greater Victoria as part of the whole:
There are 3,550,017 registered voters in BC (as of October 7, 2024). Of those, 295,892 people cast their vote in the eight Greater Victoria-area ridings during October 10 to 16. That’s 8.3% of the province’s voter base having voted so far in Greater Victoria ridings.
===== RESOURCES:
Advance Voting Turnout (Oct 10 to 16, 2024) – Elections BC [PDF]
===== RELATED:
- Election Night Results – link to come
- Who’s gonna win BC Election 2024? (October 16, 2024)
- BC Election 2024: advance voting on now for six days (October 10, 2024)
- Six days of advance voting in BC Election 2024 (October 3, 2024)
- BC NDP candidate Ravi Parmar on the Langford-Highlands campaign trail (September 29, 2024)
- NEWS SECTIONS: POLITICS | VANCOUVER ISLAND | BC ELECTION 2024