Tuesday March 4, 2025 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 5:28 pm | Last update 9 am March 5, 2025]
Editorial by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
The most striking feature of BC Budget 2025 is that it waits to see what happens. This budget could have easily been applied to a non-tariff reality.
Yes there is a $4 billion annual contingency over three years. But that doesn’t speak to much of a strategy against US tariffs. That’s like putting money into a savings account without any particular strategy for how it might be used. C’mon, Trump is not that mysterious. He has his eye on critical minerals, energy, borders (including ignoring them) and manufacturing. And if he would collapse the Canadian economy he believes he could annex Canada.
BC is already working on trade diversification (both within Canada and beyond the country’s borders). Hopefully the complexity of government operations is not standing in the way of fast work there.
Budget production:
Likely the practicalities of preparing a budget in all its many facets — from departmental reviews and ministry sign-offs to the practicalities of printing and packaging for a set delivery date — got in the way of some creative decision-making. It couldn’t have helped that many of the NDP government MLAs (and ministers) are new.
Stability isn’t all that sexy. People may not get excited about the fact that infrastructure projects like schools, hospitals and roads will continue essentially unaffected after seeing the NDP government invest in that direction since 2017.
What seems most striking about this steady-as-she-goes budget is that Finance Minister Brenda Bailey is the former Minister of Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation. There was no sense of creative opportunities or innovation in this budget. Did she find herself overly reliant on department staff who may not have crisis management experience? And/or did she not seize the opportunity to impose a policy vision?
This budget possibly shows evidence of the BC NDP becoming a caretaker government (yes, with an important eye on ‘being there for people’).
BC Budget 2025 Highlights:
These are the BC Budget highlights as posted by the BC government:
What this budget reveals:
This budget reveals:
- a reliance on government finance department methodology that seems removed from (or unwilling to address) more nuanced realities of an economic crisis; and/or
- departments that were directed to leave room for policy intervention under a climate of ‘uncertainty’; and/or
- a government with no clear direction within an economic climate of opportunity that is disguised as a crisis.
Though it could be that BC is not yet openly showing its cards.
Seeking efficiencies:
This budget may strike some fear into the hearts of some ministry departments, local governments, non-profits, community groups and some social services sectors which might rely on programs that are now subject to a review for ‘efficiency and efficacy’.
No grand statements:
Budgets are not dry documents. Especially budgets for the governance of people — there is room for creativity and ingenuity.
This budget has no sharp edges — no cuts but also no grand statements. It’s almost like the plotline is still waiting to happen.
Overall, this budget is about business as usual to maintain health care, education and social services but also draws upon debt to fund unforeseen things. In past years, the unforeseen included unexpectedly severe wildfire seasons, this year it’s tariffs.
Affordability:
However, tariffs are a game-changer. Every person’s life — whether in their household or their career — will be impacted by the new economic reality that has been thrust upon British Columbia and Canada by the mercurial whims of one US president.
Other than promising a fifth year of an ICBC rebate ($110 to come for insured drivers). there are no goodies, no remarkable supports. Certainly the government realizes they will have to bail out workers in certain sectors that get hit hard with job losses — and it’s good that they’re prepared to do that. But for everyday British Columbians who could have well appreciated some motivational leadership from this budget, there was none.
Budget 2025 has a singular mention of affordability in the context of housing. That does show some insight, for without homes there continues to be an economic crisis further compounded by homelessness.
As stated in the budget: “People continue to deal with the challenge of daily costs, especially when it comes to finding a home they can afford. Budget 2025 commits an additional $318 million over three years to BC Builds as part of the Province’s goal of delivering thousands more rental homes for middle-income people.” BC Builds aims at the ‘middle’ of the housing demand (for middle-income workers).
Losing traction:
Other than rattling off GDP numbers (a clunky old measure), there was absolutely no mention of ‘productivity’, i.e. getting more value out of the workings of the economy. Productivity for a society and economy is so much more than measuring against growth on a balance sheet. Perhaps there is more guidance yet to come in this regard from the Premier’s BC Task Force on Trade and Economic Security.
Meanwhile, the intentional staffing attrition (only essential BC frontline jobs will be maintained at full levels) will lead to erosion of services in its own way. Today Minister Bailey said she didn’t “have a crystal ball” as to the impacts of not maintaining several aspects of current services or programs; that seems to fall into the realm of ‘unintended consequences’ which – if really attended to — are easily seen. To be fair, some things are going to start falling between the cracks and there’s nothing the government can now do about it. Evidence of an economy heading into crisis mode.
It’s okay to tell a hard truth if packaged with an explanation and a pitch for why things are being done or changed. Individuals, households, small businesses, non-profits and local communities could have benefited by some sense of a larger vision in this provincial budget. If the next few years are to impacted so severely by tariffs, today’s budget speech was obliged to deliver more confidence, more magic. If times are to be bleak, why not start out on that path with a bit of bright imagery for the opportunities that crisis unveils.
Just below the surface of this budget is a somber sense of nothing much having changed in how BC manages the public purse. But things that do not progress actually fall behind. They do not stand still.
Obvious needs:
Some of the most obvious needs in BC’s economy will be left in a sense to fend for themselves, like the underfunded K-12 education system, any sort of organized food security strategy, and the long-known approaching (and present) challenges of an aging population of people who are living much longer.
Some notable areas of this budget contain a harbinger of tough times, pointing to things that could struggle in the emerging fiscal reality of economic uncertainty and rising costs. Not the least of those are:
- K-12 public education: The per-student operating funding model (the increase for which this year covers primarily wages) still falls short of school board budget needs for creating improved places of learning.
- Agriculture: Agriculture has its own Premier’s industry task force right now, but agriculture and food security were not even mentioned in the Finance Minister’s speech today. Food security looms as possibly the most serious threat of all being that it is impacted by tariffs, climate change, production challenges, farming and/or agri-tech, land availability and soil issues.
- Aging population: BC primarily adheres to the model of long-term care facilities being developed by health authorities. There is no vision in this budget about aging other than to reiterate that the overall population is aging. Yes, the Shelter Aid for Elderly Renters (SAFER) support program has a new lift in Budget 2025 …not just more funds, but recognizing the realities higher rents and higher incomes that may well come from non-employment sources (e.g. CPP, OAS and GIS). But when seniors get more SAFER income, that often reduces their eligibility for other supports including Pharmacare discounts.
Wait and see:
Other than highlighting a few economic gambles — like the surmised broader economic benefits of further tax credits for the film industry — this is a wait-and-see budget.
Where tariffs do cause specific problems it sounds like government will throw money at those problems (e.g. to support people through job loss or businesses through significant export revenue declines). This is attentive.
After hearing Budget 2025 today, British Columbians may just get a sense of baseline safety. And there’s nothing wrong with that. But today’s budget could have sparkled with encouragement for moving BC into a more robust economic future. Ir did not do that.
Budget 2025 leaves British Columbians hanging. Perhaps that’s the entire point of Trump’s work to disrupt as many national economies as he can. BC Budget 2025 does not really show British Columbians where or how to hang on.
This budget has resulted in some BC fiscal decision-making that does not inspire as much confidence as it could.
Premier Eby continues to include some motivational moments in his speeches, including this morning ahead of the Budget BC release. But the shock and awe of Trump’s tariffs is not being fully addressed at a societal level.
Disconnect:
Budget 2025 seems completely disconnected from the intensity of Premier David Eby’s speech this morning about the US 25% tariffs, including his emphasis on keeping food costs down and maintaining BC food security.
Eby said that the budget would be delivered “in the context of a changing world”.
For some reason the budget creation this year was perceived as being a perfunctory document to lay flat when it could have shown more evidence of robust ways to “fight back and succeed” (Eby’s words this morning).
===== RELATED:
- Premier Eby addresses the new tariff reality (March 4, 2025)
- Trump’s economic warfare against Canada & realignment toward Russia (March 3, 2025)
- Premier Eby criticizes USA for pending higher softwood lumber export tariffs (March 3, 2025)
- BC trade diversification underway, wage growth could be impacted (March 3, 2025)
- BC launches industry-led food economy task force (February 21, 2025)
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