Saturday November 2, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
People are talking! What will Dana Lajeunesse get in the way of a cabinet portfolio after winning the MLA seat for the BC NDP in Juan de Fuca-Malahat?
“I’m so honoured that the people of Juan de Fuca-Malahat have put their trust in me,” said Lajeunesse in the days following the October 19 election.
That response actually came in more than a week after October 19. There was a pause in communication with media while an automatic recount of the ballots that were cast in Juan de Fuca-Malahat (a large riding that includes Sooke, Metchosin, East Sooke, Otter Point to Port Renfrew, Cobble Hill, Malahat, Shawnigan Lake and Mill Bay).
In any riding with less than a 100-vote margin there is an automatic recount by Elections BC and Juan de Fuca-Malahat met that threshold. As mail-in and absentee ballots were being counted, at one point there were just 23 votes between Lajeunesse and the BC Conservative candidate Marina Sapozhnikov.
The Elections BC final count posted at 6:48 pm on October 28, 2024 showed a 141-vote winning margin for Lajeunesse.
- BC NDP – Dana Lajeunesse – 9,308 votes (38.79%)
- BC Conservative – Marina Sapozhnikov – 9,167 votes (38.20%)
- BC Green – David Evans – 5,522 votes (23.01%)
If there was ever a case to wonder if every vote counts, this is one of them.
Hard-fought campaign:
“After a hard-fought campaign and countless doors knocked and neighbours chatted with, I’m looking forward to getting to work on the issues that matter most to people here, like addressing the cost of living and housing, making healthcare more accessible, and improving our transportation network,” Lajeunesse told Island Social Trends this week.
What the future may hold:
For a first-time MLA it seems like quite a leap for anyone to be thinking of a cabinet post for Lajeunesse. But there are several factors at play here.
First of all, Premier David Eby is looking at a slew of new MLAs. Many of the experienced MLAs from the 42nd Parliament (serving 2020-2024 and many of them much longer) either didn’t seek re-election or actually lost their seats in the October 19 election (including five cabinet ministers who were seeking re-election). That leaves more possibility for several new MLAs to right away rise to the rank of parliamentary secretary or even cabinet minister.
Secondly, Lajeunesse already arrives at the BC Legislature with a distinctive story. He held onto Juan de Fuca-Malahat for the BC NDP. It’s the same riding (with various names and boundaries over the years) that former Premier John Horgan held as MLA for 18 years (2005-2023). The NDP will not want the Juan de Fuca legacy to be anything less than stellar. The riding was also held for a year by Ravi Parmar who won the June 2023 by-election in the riding then called Langford-Juan de Fuca.
And not only did Lajeunesse hold onto that NDP stronghold but he did so against two strong competitors — Sapozhnikov with the backing of a strong longtime conservative base in Sooke (despite some of her unpopular statements) and David Evans for the BC Greens based on his long-time community-facing business presence in Sooke and thoughtful perspectives about the region.
Third, it had surfaced that Sapozhnikov had made unsuitable comments about Indigenous peoples that suddenly during the automatic recount made Lajeunesse seem like all-the-more the better choice for the riding almost in the manner of saviour. Eby won’t want to miss the opportunity to capitalize on that.
If Cabinet happens for Dana:
If Cabinet happens for Dana, what would that look like?
This past week, Premier Eby expressed concern about the urban-rural divide that emerged in the October 19 election results. There are fewer NDP MLAs in the BC interior now, so a portolio focused on rural issues might be a good fit for Eby. Perhaps Lajeunesse’s third-generation resident status in the forested small-town area of the Sooke region fits the bill.
Likewise, Lajeunesse might be a good fit to slide into a Parliamentary Secretary role having to do with accessibility and disabilities. He has spent the last 35 years of his life in a wheelchair. He would know the ropes of accessibility issues from a first-hand perspective.
Lajeunesse also has a background in forestry — first actually felling trees for eight years, and then about 30 years as a mechanical engineering technologist and teaching at Camosun College. This could land him a Parliamentary Secretary role in the next forestry ministry or in a new ministry somehow combining the components of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship.
Or, one never knows, Lajeunesse might be a good fit for a supportive role under the next Minister of Health, with an eye to getting community health clinics launched. A community health clinic for Sooke has been long in coming and Lajeunesse would be familiar with the mechanics of all that.
If not cabinet, then certainly a bit of election season star-power will continue within the NDP caucus for Lajeunesse, for how his name rose to provincial and national prominence during the ballot recount phase.
The days ahead:
Any way you slice it, Lajeunesse arrives with a bang in the 43rd BC Parliament. Just where Premier Eby sets off that firecracker is yet to be seen.
The taking of oaths by new MLAs (of all three parties) will take place after all certified results of the 43rd provincial general election are provided to the Clerk of the Legislative Assembly (likely on November 5, except for the results of Kelowna Centre and Surrey-Guildford where a judicial recount is still pending).
According to Premier Eby this week, the BC Legislative Assembly is expected to sit for one day this fall, for the main purpose of electing a Speaker. Even pre-election Premier Eby had said the next full session won’t be until February 2025 (when a budget for 2025-2026 will be presented).
By-election in Sooke:
As Lajeunesse moves on to his MLA role, that will leave open his seat on the District of Sooke municipal council, triggering a by-election that will take place about 18 to 20 months ahead of the next municipal election (scheduled for October 19, 2026).
===== RELATED:
- Choosing a Speaker can be tricky (October 30, 2024)
- First day on the new job for Eby & Rustad (October 29, 2024)
- Cabinet possibilities in slim 47-seat BC NDP majority (October 28, 2024)
- Dana Lajeunesse pulls it off for BC NDP in Juan de Fuca-Malahat (October 28, 2024)
- Grinding through the process for final BC Election 2024 results (October 27, 2024)
- BC NDP candidates still leading in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre (October 26, 2024)
- Over 66,000 mail-in, special & absentee ballots to be counted this weekend (October 25, 2024)
- BC provincial election final count coming up Oct 28 (October 24, 2024)
- Tight race in Juan de Fuca-Malahat exposes long-time political divide (October 20, 2024)
- Fate of long-in-coming Sooke health centre in BC Election 2024 (October 18, 2024)
- Dana Lajeunesse hopes to follow in John Horgan’s local footsteps (October 12, 2024)
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat candidates face-off in Otter Point (September 29, 2024)
- Why do Sookies still complain about Highway 14? (September 15, 2024)
- BC NDP chooses Dana Lajeunesse as Juan de Fuca-Malahat candidate (July 21, 2024)
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