Home Election Tracker BC Provincial 2024 Cabinet possibilities in slim 47-seat BC NDP majority

Cabinet possibilities in slim 47-seat BC NDP majority

Eby has some interesting cabinet options from among 28 returning MLAs.

bc legislature, interior
BC Legislature is ready for the start of the 43rd Parliament, Oct 29, 2024. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]
BC 2024 Provincial Election news analysis

Monday October 28, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [ Posted at 3:45 pm | Updated on October 30, 2024 ]

Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends


After a 9-day cliffhanger, the BC NDP will breathe a sigh of relief that BC Election 2024 has pretty much produced a majority government for their party.

But more hard work lies ahead, as Premier David Eby will likely still seek to establish some sort of stability-backup through an alliance or agreement with the BC Greens.

majority, bc ndp, oct 28, 2024, 2 pm
Elections BC shows BC NDP in the lead with 47 seats, as of 2 pm on Monday October 28, 2024 during the three-day recount that ends today. [Elections BC]

It will inform British Coilumbians as to just how much of a gambler he is if Eby decides to avoid further talks with the BC Greens and instead go ahead on a thin-ice 47-seat majority. [NOTE: this is published at 3 pm on October 28, 2024]

bc election results, update, 3 pm, Oct 28, 2024
Elections BC shows BC NDP in the lead with 47 seats, as of 3 pm on Monday October 28, 2024 during the three-day recount that ends today. [Elections BC]

A handful of votes in the right races has made this win possible. It very much reaffirms how every vote counts and, as a subset, how campaign style matters.

Many of the absentee ballot votes that are making a difference today are coming in from locations like long-term care homes. Never underestimate the political inclinations of your grandparents or great-grandparents!

Razor-thin results:

Since October 19 election night, the razor-thin result did fluctuate. But generally the results held at 46 seats BC NDP and 45 seats BC Conservative (with 2 seats BC Green) until a breakthrough at noon today.

majority, bc ndp, oct 28, 2024
Elections BC shows BC NDP in the lead with 47 seats, as of 12 noon on Monday October 28, 2024 during the three-day recount that ends today. [Elections BC]

by 2 pm, the Elections BC results still showed 47 seats for the BC NDP:

  • BC NDP with 47 seats (940,676 votes) 44.84%
  • BC Conservative with 44 seats (908,206 votes) 43.29%
  • BC Green with 2 seats (172,849 votes) 8.23%
majority, bc ndp, oct 28, 2024, 2 pm
Elections BC shows BC NDP in the lead with 47 seats, as of 2 pm on Monday October 28, 2024 during the three-day recount that ends today. [Elections BC]

And by 3 pm the results had been updated to show:

  • BC NDP with 47 seats (942m391 votes) 44.86%
  • BC Conservative with 44 seats (909,283 votes) 43.28%
  • BC Green with 2 seats (173,137 votes) 8.24%
bc election results, update, 3 pm, Oct 28, 2024
Elections BC shows BC NDP in the lead with 47 seats, as of 3 pm on Monday October 28, 2024 during the three-day recount that ends today. [Elections BC]

Many new BC MLAs:

Of the 47 BC NDP MLAs elected on October 19 (including the recount phase to today) there are 28 MLAs re-elected or returning.

The BC NDP lost 15 incumbents. Five former cabinet ministers were not re-elected (Pam Alexis, Dan Coulter, Nathan Cullen, Andrew Mercier, and Rachna Singh); another 10 NDP MLAs either did not seek re-election or were not re-elected).

premier david eby, oct 29, 2024
Premier David Eby at his first media availability after the October 19 election results, on October 29, 2024 at the legislature. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]

That means nearly half of the BC NDP caucus will be brand new to their MLA role at the BC Legislature; it will take time for colleagues and staff to bring them up to speed.

Eby will be so much more inclined to rely on remaining long-time MLAs for his upcoming cabinet (many other long-timers did not seek re-election).

It’s notable that 31 of the BC NDP’s MLAs are women (about 66% of their caucus). The BC Conservatives have 18 women MLAs out of 44 in their caucus (about 41%). Both of the BC Green MLAs are men. Overall, the 93 MLAs of BC’s 43rd Parliament 49 (or 52.7%) are women which is up about 10% from the previous four-year legislative assembly.

Community Wildfire Resiliency, Let's Chat Langford

BC NDP cabinet post possibilities:

Our Island Social Trends prediction on BC NDP cabinet posts starts today (and may change in the days ahead). These predictions are based on years of BC political news coverage, and in particular how various ministers performed in the last two years under David Eby.

As well, these reasoned predictions are based on how much Eby will respond to key issues that are long-standing but didn’t get enough attention during his governance in 2023 and 2024 (e.g. mental health, drug overdose crisis, food security, urban development, health-care system fallouts).

premier david eby
Premier David Eby at mental health brain injury support announcement in Vancouver, accompanied by George Chow, MLA (Vancouver-Fraserview) & Brenda Bailey, MLA (seeking re-election in Vancouver-South Granviille), Sept 15, 2024. [livestream]

Here’s today’s quick take on possible choices for the David Eby 2024 top cabinet posts:

  • Mike Farnworth continuing as Solictor General and Public Safety minister
  • Niki Sharma continuing as Attorney General
  • Ravi Kahlon perhaps continuing as Housing minister but possibly shifting to Finance minister or even Mental Health and Addictions if Eby wants powerful decision-making capacity in that portfolio given the overdose crisis.
david eby, ravi kahlon
Premier David Eby and Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon announced a BC Builds rental project for 100 homes in Whistler, BC on July 22, 2024. [Composite / Island Social Trends]
  • Lana Popham continuing in leading Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport
  • Jennifer Whiteside likely moving on from Mental Health and Addictions to possibly Finance or Housing
  • Lisa Beare continuing in leading Post Secondary and Future Skills
  • Ravi Parmar continuing as Parliamentary Secretary for International Credentials (within the Post Secondary ministry)
ravi parmar, lisa beare
Citizens’ Services Minister Lisa Beare was accompanied by new MLA Ravi Parmar (Langford-Juan de Fuca) at the BC Demographic Survey extension announcement, August 25, 2023 in Victoria. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]
  • *New* – predicting a new standalone ministry on Food Security, which Eby might hand to Sheila Malcolmson who has helped move along food banks and poverty-related issues.
sheila malcolmson, march 2023
Sheila Malcolmson, Minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction, during food security funding announcement in Vancouver, March 7, 2023.
  • *New* – predicting a renamed municipalities ministry to Municipalities and Urban Development. No minister suggestions here.
  • *New* – predicting a new standalone ministry on Rural Development, which Eby might give to Dana Lajeunesse as the star candidate who held onto Juan de Fuca-Malahat (after Ravi Parmar held it for a year after his June 2023 by-election win).
ravi parmar, dana lajeunesse
Ravi Parmar, MLA (Langford-Juan de Fuca) and District of Sooke Councillor Dana LaJeunesse at the Sooke Fine Arts Show, Aug 2, 2024. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]
  • Adrian Dix would be a natural to continue as Minister of Health but Eby might make a strategic statement and switch Eby out, given the concerns expressed about the health-care system during the campaign.
adrian dix, health minister
Health Minister Adrian Dix during heat-related health announcement, May 31, 2024. [livestream]
  • Raj Chouhan would be a natural to continue on as Speaker, but it’s a tough job that he’s already done for four years. There’s talk of finding someone else for that job, given that the Speaker is a non-voting position (except to break ties) and with only 47 seats the NDP would have to rely much more heavily on the two Green MLAs in order to pass legislation.
  • Grace Lore probably continuing as Minister of Children and Family Development (during the election campaign Eby highlighted her work in that role).
grace lore, mla, victoria-beacon hill
Victoria-Beacon Hill MLA Grace Lore at announcement about more homeless shelter spaces, Aug 21, 2024. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]
  • Bowinn Ma likely continuing to guide the Emergency Management and Climate Readiness ministry, but she might get moved into Transportation given her engineering background.
bowinn ma, emergency management
Bowinn Ma, Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness, during BC Wildfire Service weekly update, July 27, 2023. [livestream]
  • Josie Osborne continuing as Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation.
josie osborne, low carbon innovation
BC Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation flanked by federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault (left) and federal Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson, May 13, 2024 in Victoria. [Mary P Brooke / Island Social Trends]
  • Rick Glumac (re-elected in Port Moody-Coquitlam) might be elevated to serve as Housing minister, how that the legislation overhaul has been done by Kahlon.
  • George Chow likely continuing as Minister of Citizens’ Services.
  • Anne Kang would be a good fit for the Child Care portfolio given the job-training aspect that needs to be moved into the post-secondary system.
subway restauurants, langford, colwood
  • Brenda Bailey likely continuing in Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation to continue her work in the science area (jobs and education components).
  • Spencer Chandra Herbert or Brittny Anderson taking on the Ministry of Education, to grapple in particular with the parental involvement aspect of the SOGI component of public education.
  • Susie Chant (re-elected in North Vancouver-Seymour) who might be a good pick for Child Care or Urban Food Security.
urban food resilience initiatives society, logo
  • The traditional Agriculture and Food portfolio may go to someone fresh like Kelly Greene who has already been the Parliamentary Secretary for Fisheries and Aquaculture to the Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship.
  • Joan Phillip could now possibly lead the Indigenous Relations ministry.
ravi parmar, joan phillip, david eby
New MLAs Ravi Parmar and Joan Phillip with Premier David Eby, at the swearing-in ceremony on July 28, 2023. [livestream]
  • Darlene Rotchford (newly elected) might get fast-tracked into Mental Health and Addictions (given her health-care background with Island Health), or Child Care (she’s a young mom).
  • Nina Krieger might get fast-tracked into a parliamentary secretary role to help take on anti-racism, perhaps through the Citizens’ Services ministry.
  • Mable Elmore has just been re-elected for a fifth term. Before the NDP were government, she had served as the Official Opposition spokesperson for ICBC, and the deputy spokesperson for Finance. Maybe she’s an option for Finance minister this time around.

More to come in our BC Election 2024 News Section.

ist main, bc election
News and insights on society, economy and politics at IslandSocialTrends.ca .

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