Monday January 27, 2025 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 5:05 pm]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
At least 57 current Liberal MPs are now backing Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney (most of them are cabinet ministers), compared to 26 (five of them cabinet ministers) backing former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and two backing former House Leader Karina Gould.

The other three candidates in the leadership race are current or former MPs: Jaime Battiste, Frank Baylis and Ruby Dhalla.
A potential seventh candidate — Chandra Arya — did not have his leadership application approved the party, as reported over this past weekend.
Key supporters:
Carney has key supporters such as current Innovation, Science and Industry minister François-Philippe Champagne (who insists the support is more of a ‘partnership’); Immigration Minister Marc Miller; Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson; Defence Minister Bill Blair and former procurement and defence minister Anita Anand.
Freeland has some strong support from Montreal- and Toronto-based MPs, as well as BC MP and cabinet minister Terry Beach (Burnaby North-Seymour).
New leader will be next prime minister:
The leadership race is about choosing the next leader but that person also immediately also becomes Canada’s next prime minister.
The new leader will be announced on March 9 at which time Canada’s current Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign (as he declared on January 6).
Trudeau will, by the way, fill all 10 vacant senate seats before he leaves (with Liberal but also independent — meaning the majority of the senate will have a say on votes made by decision-makers who follow). According to CBC reporting today, the current senators indicate that their goal will remain the same, i.e. is to improve and amend legislation (or reject as required).
The next election is presently scheduled for October 20, 2025 but is now expected to probably happen in April or May, following an expected non-confidence vote in the House of Commons after parliament resumes on March 24.
Oddities and comparison:
Two goals are at odds here for the Liberals: they need a leader who is electable in the next federal election which could be happening within a matter of months from now. And if they win against the Conservatives and their leader Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, can that person govern. Those are possibly two different types of leaders, given the current front runner options.
Both Carney and Freeland are bilingual, Freeland more fluently so. That matters in Quebec and in Ottawa politics, less so for western voters.
Chrystia Freeland – candidate
Chrystia Freeland is presenting herself as an anti-establishment candidate even though she was essentially tied to every policy decision that the Liberal government announced or made over the past nine years including as Finance Minister as the fiscal deficit grew. In that phase of her political career she was obviously fulfilling the role of loyal foot soldier. IN that context it feels contrived when she Carney is “the choice of the Liberal establishment” even though she has performed since 2013 as entirely within the Liberal ranks.

Freeland wants to see revisions to the Liberal Party constitution, saying last week: “We can never again be in a position where the leader is the only person who decides who the leader is.” She added: “I think Liberal Party grassroots members and caucus need to have a greater say in what we do and how we do it.”
People always politely say that Freeland’s communication skills are a problem. She has powerful ideas but her delivery at the podium can sometimes be less calm than people would like to see and she seems to deliver a pained scowl when talking about key issues where most other politicians would paint a smile. She handles her long hair a lot during live press conferences which comes across as a nervous reflex; most PR professionals will say ‘no hands in action in front of the camera’.
Freeland proudly comes across as a scrapper (a skill she says will be useful in dealing with the current US president); that which might be useful in strategic planning and negotiations but doesn’t play as well in the public realm where impressions are instantaneous and attention spans are short. She takes pride in her resignation letter that people acknowledged was well crafted, but in hindsight might be seen as more of a personal statement of frustration than a smart political tactic.
In terms of practical politics she is trying to turn around the divisiveness that she set in motion with suddenly resigning on December 16, 2024 — the same day she was as then Finance Minister to deliver the Fall Economic Statement.
Mark Carney – candidate
Mark Carney has no experience with elected politics and his French is not entirely strong. But he has economic policy credentials that are clearly stellar. He seems to have some star quality at the moment, getting plenty of national coverage without having yet held any press conferences to answer media questions.
He seems to have the stature and demeanor that appeals to a wide range of Liberals. With no experience in elected politics to date, it is yet to be seen whether his personal appeal is translatable to a country-wide election this year.
He was funny and spontaneous on The Daily Show with host Jon Stewart a few weeks ago, which surprised a lot of people. But he was stiff at the podium during his election launch in Edmonton about 11 days ago. It’s almost as if he responds to the energy of the room as he experiences it — that can be a plus in terms of responding to the moment but could leave him open to pitfalls depending on the issue at hand.
Carney has indicated that he wants to deal with pollution and may have new ways to pair that with the affordability tax credits that the Liberals have issued over the past nine years to low-income Canadians.
Miller on Carney:
Today on CBC, Marc Miller had some comments to make about his backing Mark Carney, prefacing that the next Liberal leader will have to deal with “the toxic rhetoric out of Pierre’s mouth on a daily basis”.
Miller highlighted Carney having achievements on the world stage (Governor of the Bank of Canada and also the Bank of England) as well as what he called “intangibles” (ability to respond in ways that aren’t immediately evident).
Miller says that his own priorities — as well as for the party and Canadians and the next generation, including Indigenous reconciliation and the environment — are things that Carney can lead on.
“He’s a regular guy, you can have a chat with him,” said Miller. He doesn’t talk down or at people. These are skills that are important in retail politics.
Miller has always been a straight shooter (which was a bonus for Trudeau over recent years); he speaks clearly and puts forward difficult ideas in a way that is palatable because it’s truthful. “It’s undeniable that we’ve had to change things up,” says Miller about the Liberal party. That includes “the impact of the last nine years on the economy”.

Broader race:
Miller says the Liberals need “new ideas from a guy on the outside, like Carney”.
That shoots holes in Freeland’s spin that Carney is an insider; Carney has never been elected to the House of Commons and certainly has not been in cabinet. Being invited to advise cabinet is still an outside relationship in any normal operational context.
“If we come out of this leadership race fractured it won’t bode well for the next election,” said Miller today.
Locally here on Vancouver Island, the Liberal candidate for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke has the same take, today saying “Carney as an outsider may be the best choice”, though acknowledging that both Carney and Freeland are front runners in the leadership campaign.
===== RELATED:
- Liberals will grapple with style vs substance in choosing next leader (January 19, 2025)
- Mark Carney launches Liberal leadership campaign (January 16, 2025)
- Liberals to produce new prime minister by March 9 (January 10, 2025)
- Parliament on pause as Liberals choose new leader (January 6, 2025)
- Finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigns from federal cabinet (December 16, 2024)
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