Home Election Tracker Liberal Party of Canada Liberals will grapple with style vs substance in choosing next leader

Liberals will grapple with style vs substance in choosing next leader

Canada's next Liberal leader and prime minister will need to successfully face threats from the new United States administration.

liberal leadership, carney, gould, freeland
Three frontrunners in the leadership race for the Liberal Party of Canada (from left): Mark Carney, Karina Gould, Chrystia Freeland. [Composite by Island Social Trends]
CANADA-USA NEWS & ANALYSIS

Sunday January 19, 2025 | VICTORIA, BC

Political news analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends


Canada will have a new prime minister on March 9. One of three high-profile Liberal Party of Canada leadership contenders who have now launched their campaigns will arrive in the top job to lead this country.

The campaigns of three front runners have been formally announced over four days — first Mark Carney on Thursday, Karina Gould on Friday and Chrystia Freeland today.

Liberal Party, leadership logo
Liberal Party of Canada leadership race 2025. Party membership cutoff at January 27, 2025

All good pre-qualifications aside, it looks like the decision by the Liberal membership — if they are voting and choosing with all of Canada in mind — is a matter of style versus substance.

The deadline to sign up as a Liberal member is Thursday January 23, 2025.

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A ‘simple’ equation with consequences:

  • The equation: Style on the campaign trail, in live media sessions, and on national TV and social media will be weighed against the substance they can promise as to how they would deal with the economic and existential threat that is a US administration led by incoming president Donald Trump.
  • The consequences: Canada’s next Liberal leader and prime minister will need to successfully face down threats from the new United States administration and come up with solutions to keep this country strong and whole.
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Three candidates:

Here’s the quick take on the three Liberal leadership race front runners:

Mark Carney brings the stature of having been the Governor of the Bank of Canada, the Governor of the Bank of England, and undertaking a post at the United Nations. Launching his campaign in Edmonton with a highlight on his childhood roots there, he . He has kept himself close to the Liberals over the years but has not joined the frontline fray, until now. This shows strategic thinking but also no thirst for the cut and thrust of front line (or immersive) politics. He demonstrated quick humourous wit in the moment in a 20-minute appearance on The Daily Show last week; combining this freshness with the weight of economic issues could be his winning ticket.

mark carney, liberal leadership candidate
Liberal Leadership candidate Mark Carney during his campaign launch on Jan 17, 2025.

Karina Gould has been a steady presence in the House of Commons as the Liberal House Leader including squaring off against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. She has impressed the people around her with her smarts and matter of fact delivery of government policy. At age 37, the Harvard graduate is emphasizing her capacity to connect with and communicate about the challenges for today’s young Canadian families and households, with a long-term trajectory. An MP since 2015, Gould is presenting her own views without disparaging the outgoing prime minister. She does politics with less of the usual clatter of campaign noise. She launched her campaign in social media primarily to an audience of her own generation.

Karina Gould, liberal leadership candidate
Liberal leadership candidate Karina Gould in the House of Commons, 2025.

Chrystia Freeland has been at Trudeau’s side since the Liberals came to power as a majority in 2015 (first winning her Toronto riding MP seat in 2013). In her campaign launch today she reminded supporters and Canadians of her scrappy side which she claims is the tone and approach for dealing with the threat of tariffs and territorial annexation from the incoming president of the United States. She has support from a group of mostly Ontario and Quebec high-profile MPs but will probably still bear some loss of support from the broader Liberal caucus for how she tipped the country into leadership turmoil at a critical time where mounting the response to the USA is of top concern.

liberal leadership candidate, chrystia freeland
Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland at her campaign launch in Toronto on Jan 19, 2025.

Fifty days to go:

Liberal Party of Canada who will choose the next prime minister 50 days from now. But Canadians are sensibly advised to pay attention to who ends up in that chair. After May 9, that new prime minister will be the one leading the Liberals into the next federal election against the very real possibility of a Conservative majority government under Pierre Poilievre.

Electing more NDP and Green MPs would be one counter-strategy available to Canadians as a way to reduce a potential Conservative majority down to a minority.

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Most political analysis to date does seem to indicate that whoever the next prime minister of Canada is after the 2025 Canadian federal election, that their primary focus will need to be the economic and national-integrity pushback against the incoming US President Donald Trump.

house of commons, sitting calendar, 2025
House of Commons parliamentary sitting calendar [portion for March to June 2025].

The 2025 Canadian Federal Election is presently scheduled for October 20, 2025 but could come sooner if a confidence vote fails in the House of Commons after parliament reconvenes on March 24.

There is really no way to predict where Canada’s situation will be with regard to Canada-USA relations by the time March 24 arrives.

For every Canadian, the current Liberal leadership campaign thereby matters.

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