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Elxn44: 2021 federal election night analysis

PREDICTION by ISLAND SOCIAL TRENDS for FINAL SEAT COUNT: Liberal minority, pared-back Conservatives, increase in Bloc seats, more NDP seats, one or two Greens.

Monday September 20, 2021 | NATIONAL and SOUTH VANCOUVER ISLAND, BC [Updated at 7:30 & 8:10 pm & 10:18 pm]

by Mary P Brooke, Editor | Island Social Trends

  • RESULTS at 7:40 pm (318 of 338 ridings reporting): Liberal 144 | Conservative 118 | Bloc 28 | NDP 26 | Green 2 | PPC 0
  • RESULTS at 8:10 pm (337 of 338 ridings reporting): Liberal 154 | Conservative 121 | NDP 30 | Bloc 30 | Green 2 | PPC 0
  • RESULTS at 10:15 pm (338 of 338 riding reported): Liberal 156 (+1) | Conservative 121 (+2) | Bloc 32 (same) | NDP 27 (+3) | Green 2 (same) | PPC (0)

44th Federal Election seat count & popular vote (at 10:30 pm):

The final seat count (before any changes that might come after over one million mail-in ballots are counted):

  • Liberal 157 (+2) | popular vote 32% | 47% of seats
  • Conservative 121 (+2) | popular vote 34% | 36% of seats
  • Bloc Quebecois 32 (no change) | popular vote 8% | 9% of seats
  • NDP 26 (+2) | popular vote 18% | 8% of seats
  • Green 2 (no change) | 1% of seats
  • PPC 0 seats | 5% popular vote | 0% of seats

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on the last day of the 44th election campaign, in Burnaby on September 19, 2021.

Check back through the day and evening for our news coverage of the 44th General Federal Election today, Monday September 20, 2021.

We are predicting a returning Liberal minority, with some votes siphoned from the Conservatives to the Peoples Party of Canada and also the Bloc Quebecois. The NDP will gain some seats. The Greens may return only one.

As published to our subscribers this morning at 3:45 am PDT:

voting station, ESS
Wide open space for voting in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke at the Juan de Fuca Seniors Centre in Colwood. [Island Social Trends photo – Sept 10, 2021]

Editorial comment on this day of the 44th Federal General Election, at 10 am (ahead of election results):

  • For some reason people kept complaining for 36 days that an election had been called. Trudeau said it on day one… he was seeking the sort of mandate that it will take to pull Canada out of the pit we’ve fallen into due to COVID. Don’t you want your say for that?
  • We covered Jagmeet Singh’s NDP national leadership campaign a fair bit, because if there is going to be any real change in how Canadian society functions, a stronger injection of orange-Singh soul is what it’s going to take (as the balance of power) to produce a stable mix that Island Social Trends is predicting.
  • OUR PREDICTION OF THE SEPTEMBER 20 OVERALL ELECTION SEAT-COUNT RESULT: Another Liberal minority government, a strong but pared-back Conservative presence (PPC cutting into the right-wing vote, and Greens making a pinch), more Bloc Quebecois seats (capitalizing on Liberal slippage in Quebec), more NDP seats (Singh’s successful pitch to progressive voters), and one or two Greens.
  • OUR PREDICTION OF THE RESULTS on VANCOUVER ISLAND (7 seats): All five NDP incumbents will be re-elected (Randall Garrison, Alistair MacGregor, Laurel Collins, Gord Johns, Rachel Blaney) though the margins will be very tight; Elizabeth May will keep her Green seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands; and Nanaimo-Ladysmith will possibly be returned to the Greens in Paul Manly (depends on how well the NDP supported Lisa Marie Barron there).
  • Over the past 36 days we followed all the national leader campaigns, day by day, to keep on top of the pulse of it all. We covered the news of all south Vancouver Island candidates who wished to be interviewed by us (whether or not they bought ads). Candidates who felt they didn’t need or want the coverage — we leave that to readers to think about.
  • Voting is open 7 am to 7 pm in BC today. Check the elections.ca website for any voting info you might need.
  • Check our www.islandsocialtrends.ca tonight for our election analysis, and of course on Twitter @IslandSocTrends as we post copiously! (You can also see our Twitter feed on our website on our Calendar page.)
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