Sunday May 4, 2025 | NATIONAL NEWS ANALYSIS (from VICTORIA, BC) | Posted at 5 pm PT [Updated May 9, 2025]
by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Newly re-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce his go-forward cabinet on Tuesday May 13.
He had a short-term caretaker cabinet during the short time he was chosen by the Liberal Party as their leader, from March 9 up to March 23 when the 45th general election was called. That cabinet was mostly people already deeply involved in portfolios related to handling the US-initiated trade war crisis.
The political discussion swirling around cabinet composition has various threads, firstly about how many of the long-time previous Liberal cabinet ministers (under Trudeau’s leadership) will be in Carney’s new cabinet.
Other speculation is around which re-elected MPs will be included in cabinet who weren’t there before.
And also pundits are watching for any brand new MPs might be appointed because they might bring regional connections or specialized expertise to the table.
Big issues for a minority government:
Overall, Carney is moving forward fast with the tone of having a majority government. With 169 seats (just three short of a majority) the Liberals can likely rely on the passage of legislation in the 45th Parliament with support of any of the three other parties with enough seats to push votes past 172. The Conservatives have 143 MPs, the Bloc 23 MPs, and the NDP has seven MPs.
Key issues at the outset of Carney as prime minister are naturally the challenge to Canada’s sovereignty that US President Donald Trump has thrust upon this country as well as the chosen path to creating ‘one economy, not 13’ so that Canada has a chance at being more self-reliant and productive together with diversified trade options with countries other than the United States.
Delivering on the promise of a housing boom will be important as well as protecting key industrial sectors including auto-making and forestry.
Cabinet ministers who fit any one of the pieces for achieving those key missions will likely be on Carney’s list for cabinet consideration.
Carney’s cabinet announcement will come one week after his first in-person visit with Trump. That visit between the two heads of state will be on this coming week on Tuesday May 6.
Long-time factor:
Long-time MPs who might be kept around in cabinet for being in the middle of things regarding the Canada-USA trade relations might include:
- Dominic LeBlanc (most recently International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs, before that Finance, and before that many other portfolios),
- Melanie Joly (long-time and recently Foreign Affairs),
- François-Philippe Champagne (most recently Finance, and before that Industry and Innovation),
- Marc Miller (most recently Minister of Immigration), Jonathan Wilkinson (Energy and Natural Resources),
- Bill Blair (most recently Minister of National Defence), and
- Steven Guilbeault (previously Minister of Canadian Culture and Identity, Parks Canada and Quebec and before that Environment and Climate Change); he also carried the Quebec file for Carney in March.
Re-elected:
Re-elected MPs who likely have a purposeful shot at continuation in cabinet might include:
- Ginette Petitpas Taylor – highly electable and perfunctory on the job
- Terry Beech – previously headed up Citizens’ Services as a new area of government attention and is located in the Liberal-coveted BC Lower Mainland region
- Terry Duguid – re-elected in Winnipeg South, good mid-west connection; has been serving as Minister of Environment and Climate Change
- David McGuinty – re-elected in Ottawa South, has been serving as minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
- Chrystia Freeland – re-elected in University-Rosedale, former Finance Minister
- Joël Lightbound – re-elected for a fourth term in Louis-Hébert; an open-minded critical thinker.
Brand new:
Some brand new MPs who might have a shot at cabinet based on their connections and skills, include:
- Evan Solomon – former CBC and CTV broadcaster, newly elected in Toronto Centre; instant high profile.
- Will Greaves – a political science university professor with deep connections in Arctic matters; newly elected in Victoria.
- Stephanie McLean – newly elected in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, might be useful for Carney on gender legal matters.
Carney stated last week that his cabinet will be gender-balanced which might favour some newly-elected women MPs, or some re-elected backbenchers.
British Columbia component:
Both Greaves and McLean broke through the NDP stronghold on Vancouver Island, and may be rewarded for that as well as being useful in cabinet for being in Pacific region which will be important for Carney’s expansion of trade diversification.
Carney might want to sink an anchor into the fast-growing Surrey area of Metro Vancouver where he now has three MPs: Randeep Sarai (Surrey Centre), Sukh Dhaliwal (Surrey Newton), Ernie Kallen (South Surrey-White Rock).
Attention to the urban component of running this country effectively might well be served by new federal MP Gregor Robertson (Vancouver Fraserview-South Burnaby) who was a high-profile big city mayor in Vancouver.
Jonathan Wilkinson who has been a Liberal MP in North Vancouver since 2015 would (in addition to his expertise on the Energy and National Resources file) would round out the west coast component of Canada.
Does size matter?
Carney has already established a sense of efficiency and no-nonsense about tackling the economic challenges now faced by this country.
In keeping with that sense of brisk action but with strategic thought, most pundits are thinking the cabinet will be about 30 ministers — enough to cover all the bases but not bloating it with issues that might be included under larger ministries.
Thirty ministers would be larger than his short-term cabinet announced in March but smaller than some of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinets.
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ABOUT ISLAND SOCIAL TRENDS:
Island Social Trends Editor Mary P Brooke has been providing news analysis since 2008, first regionally and then provincially starting 2018, with more national analysis starting around 2020.
The key Island Social Trends readership are people like you… leaders in business, politics, government and community.
Based on Vancouver Island, Island Social Trends provides most analysis through a west coast lens.