Home Election Tracker Conservative Party of Canada Aug 18 by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot opens door for Poilievre’s return

Aug 18 by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot opens door for Poilievre’s return

pierre poilievre, damien kubek, conservative
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre will run in Battle River-Crowfoot in Alberta where Conservative MP Damien Kubek resigned. [Composite | Island Social Trends]
CANADIAN NATIONAL NEWS & ANALYSIS

Monday June 30, 2025 | NATIONAL NEWS – Reporting from VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 8:40 am PT | Updated 10:17 am PT & 2:35 pm PT]

Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends


A by-election date has been called for August 18, 2025 for the federal Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot.

The riding was freed up for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to run and win a seat as a member of parliament after losing his seat in Carleton in Ottawa during the recent federal election on April 28, 2025.

pierre poilievre
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on election night, April 28, 2025. [livestream]

After serving for a very short time in the House of Commons this spring, Battle River-Crowfoot Conservative MP Damien Kubek relinquished his seat so that the Conservative Party Leader could have a safe seat as a pathway to returning to the House of Commons.

Meanwhile, former Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer made a stable contribution on behalf of the Conservatives in the short spring term when the House sat May 26 to June 20.

federal riding, battle irver-crowfoot
Fedearl riding of Battle River – Crowfoot in Alberta. [Elections Canada]

Carney said shortly after the election that there would be ‘no games’ in terms of setting the timing of a by-election for Poilievre to return to the House.

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One day ahead of Canada Day:

This announcement comes early in the morning on the eve of the first Canada Day with Mark Carney as prime minister.

A Monday sandwiched in between a weekend and statutory holiday would normally be a a quiet day in the news cycle but this year not so much. Carney had promised the dropping of federal trade barriers before Canada Day, and the fisticuffs with the US President over Canada’s Digital Services Tax (DST) is raging in the headlines.

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Canada Day news section

This is the year of ‘elbows up’ which is likely to heighten most people’s awareness of federal political issues, even during summer which is usually quiet for public political interest.

Including Poilievre in the headlines around Canada Day is another gracious move by Carney toward inviting Poilievre back into the fray of the House of Commons. Without the Question Period drama making for national TV exposure, Poilievre has for the last few months been relegated to the political wilderness.

Pierre Poilievre, calgary stampede
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (then MP for Carleton) at the Calgary Stampede in July 2023. [web]

The timing also helps gives some profile to Poilievre in a riding near Calgary, as the Calgary Stampede comes up July 4 to 13 with plenty of TV screen time for politicians who attend the popular annual event.

Today the Liberal Party announced that they will run a candidate in the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election. Darcy Spady, described as a seasoned energy leader and community advocate, will be the Liberal candidate in the Battle River-Crowfoot in the upcoming federal by-election. Spady grew up in the riding and is a professional engineer.

Darcy Spady
Darcy Spady (Spady Family Scholarship website)

One may wonder how all the hard-working Liberals in the Ottawa riding of Carleton now feel about their work to boot out Poilievre from his long-time seat there (held by Poilievre for 21 years); there was a loaded ballot with over 90 names in the April 28, 2025 election which split the vote away from Poilievre who had held the riding since 2004 (formerly Nepean-Carleton in 2004-2015).

But the centre-right Carney factor could help Spady give Poilievre a run for the win.

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Leaning right:

Carney’s politics as Liberal Leader already leans more to centre-right with his nearly all of his political moves being focused on economic restructuring. The ease with which he has opened the door for Poilievre’s return to the House is a form of handshake across the aisle. It feels more collegial than adversarial.

Battle River-Crowfoot is considered a safe seat for the Conservative Leader given that Kubek had first won the riding with over 82% of the vote. This sort of stepping-aside for a leader is part of parliamentary system custom if not almost protocol.

damien kurik, consrevative mp
Conservative MP Damien Kubek resigning from his seat in Battleriver-Crowfoot, on May 29, 2025 in the House of Commons. [livestream]

With an almost certain win for Poilievre on Monday August 18, it means that it will be Carney and Poilievre toe to toe in the House of Commons when MPs return for a September 15 start to the Fall 2025 sitting.

house of commons, calendar, sept to dec, 2025
House of Commons sitting calendar for Sept to Dec 2025. [as at May 29, 2025]
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Regardless of how well the Conservatives do in a future federal general election it seems certain that Kubek will (by having stepped aside for the current leader) have secured himself a favoured position in the party including possibly even as a future party leader.

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