Monday April 13, 2026 | OTTAWA, ON [Posted 12:08 pm PT]
by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends | See FINAL RESULTS – 3 LIBERAL WINS | Results & Analysis – BY-ELECTIONS
There will be three federal by-elections today Monday April 13, 2026 in the following electoral districts:
- Scarborough Southwest (Toronto area)
- Terrebonne (Quebec)
- University-Rosedale (Toronto area)
Since the March 8 announcement of this by-election date, the political chatter has been that the two Greater Toronto Area ridings are a shoo-in for the Liberals, but that the Terrebonne riding is up for grabs.
That analysis is based on the two Ontario ridings having been held by long-time federal Liberal ministers (both recently resigned), where the party ground game infrastructure will be firmly in place. Bill Blair is now is Canada’s high commissioner for the UK and Ireland and Chrystia Freeland holds an advisory role for Ukraine’s government.
As well, the Liberal candidates for those ridings are considered spot-on for attracting voters — Danielle Martin in University-Rosedale is a mid-career medical health executive, and Doly Begum (recently the deputy leader of the Ontario NDP) running in Scarborough Southwest brings the left-leaning voter base to the table.
Terrebonne strong:
At last weekend’s Liberal Party Convention in Montreal, it was the Terrebonne Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste who introduced Diana Fox Carney on stage, ahead of Mrs Carney introducing Prime Minister Mark Carney for the final keynote speech of the convention. That made a statement as to the importance of the riding in today’s by-election.
Auguste had already held the Terrebonne seat after the April 28, 2025 general federal election but following an election ballot recount when the results were annulled (due to typographical errors on envelopes used by Elections Canada for at least some of the mail-in ballots).
There are 48 names on the ballot. The Liberal contender is Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné for the Bloc Quebecois. As well as candidates for the Conservative and NDP, most of the rest are Independent.
Advance voting:
Advance voting was strong in Terrebonne during the April 3 to 6 advance voting period.
Greater public attention:
Generally speaking, many Canadians pay little attention to by-elections. But this trio of by-elections on one night could well change the trajectory of the remainder of the Carney Liberal term… which could now traverse three years until an election in 2029.
Carney has established and maintained the overall confidence of Canadians that he is the right leader for Canada at this time of economic crisis and sovereign threat.
Boosting chances:
To boost the Liberal party’s chances of forming a majority after tonight’s by-elections (results will start rolling in after 8:30 pm ET / 5:30 pm PT), one more floor-crosser (a politically questionable one in staunch-right Marilyn Gladu) happened last week.
That was the fifth floor-crossing since November — four of them from the Conservative ranks (Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu), one from the NDP (Lori Idlout).
As of today (ahead of the by-election) there are 171 Liberal MPs. Just one more is needed for a majority (i.e. over half of the 343 seats in the House of Commons), though 172 is more comfortable (not requiring the Speaker to break tie votes). The Carney Liberals could end up with 174 by tonight.
Ottawa chatter is that there are more floor-crossings to come in support of Carney’s government on a mission to reorient Canada toward its new forever-future.
Female vote:
Let’s note that all three Liberal by-election candidates are women at mid-points in their careers.
===== RELATED:
- Liberals 2026: Uniting the big tent & selling the big vision (April 11, 2026)
- The Gladu surprise: another Conservative MP crosses to the Liberals (April 8, 2026)
- Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux crosses floor to Liberals (February 18, 2026)
- Election results annulled in one Quebec riding over special ballot delivery error (February 13, 2026)
- Canada’s diplomatic appointments to UK & France (February 2, 2026)
- Chrystia Freeland resigning as MP to take on advisory role in Ukraine (January 5, 2026)
- Carney Liberals still don’t realize they are a minority government, says NDP (December 10, 2025)
- NEWS SECTIONS: 45th PARLIAMENT of CANADA | LIBERAL PARTY of CANADA | BY-ELECTIONS