Monday October 28, 2024 | SOOKE, BC [Posted at 12:50 pm | Last update November 2, 2024]
by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
BC NDP candidate Dana Lajeunesse appears to have now won the seat in Juan de Fuca-Malahat.
For more than a week it’s been a cliffhanger waiting for all final BC Election night results to roll in — not just for voters in Juan de Fuca-Malahat but also for the entire province as the status of majority/minority government has also being hanging in the balance between BC NDP and BC Conservative leaders and their parties.
As of last night (October 27 at 8:30 pm), Elections BC showed the BC NDP as leading with 46 seats (44.80% of the vote), with BC Conservatives right behind at 45 seats (43.34% of the vote). A majority government requires 47 seats; the two BC Green MLAs will be heavily wooed to prop up either party that doesn’t achieve 47 seats.
But now as of 12 noon today (October 28) the BC NDP are tallied at 47 seats, giving them the barest of majority standing in the 43rd parliament in BC where there are 93 MLAs/seats in the BC Legislative Assembly.
After the excitement and tension of election night on October 19, this all feels somehow anti-climactic for something so hard fought.
Juan de Fuca-Malahat on everyone’s radar now:
Most people across BC would not have had Juan de Fuca-Malahat on their radar except for being among the tightest races of all 93 ridings on election night.
That combined with the impact of some highly derogatory comments recently made by BC Conservative candidate Marina Sapozhkinov about Indigenous people (comments that were fairly quickly denounced by her party leader John Rustad) has thrust Juan de Fuca-Malahat into the provincial and national spotlight.
The Juan de Fuca-Malahat vote result as of 4 pm Sunday October 27 was 9,181 for Dana Lajeunesse BC NDP (38.71%), Marina Sapozhnikov BC Conservative with 9,075 votes (38.27%), and 5,460 votes for BC Green candidate David Evans (23.02%). That was a margin of 106 votes for Lajeunesse to become MLA.
This morning during the addition of absentee ballot count results in all BC ridings, the Juan de Fuca-Malahat result did change slightly — for the better in Lajeunesse’s direction. At 11 am this morning (October 28) the result result was: Dana Lajeunesse BC NDP with 9,229 votes (38.73%), Marina Sapozhnikov BC Conservative with 9,120 votes (38.27%), and 5,482 votes for BC Green candidate David Evans (23.00%). That closed the margin to 109 votes with Lajeunesse still in the lead.
But as of 12 noon today Monday October 28, 2024 it appears Lajeuenesse is holding the lead with a margin of 113 votes: Lajeunesse 9,239 (38.74%), Sapozhnikov (38.26%), and Evans 5,485 (23.00%).
And at 1 pm the vote result margin grew larger to 116 in Lajeuneesse’s favour.
Storied arrival in caucus:
This outcome for Lajeunesse to be the next MLA for the Juan de Fuca region may possibly elevate him to what might be seen as rock-star status within the Eby BC NDP caucus.
Every MLA comes to the BC Legislative Assembly with their story. Lajeunesse’s story will forever include how he caught the attention of the entire province and even made national news as a result of being in a riding where the votes results were among the tightest of any race, and where his main opponent made him look even more suitable for the job.
He also carries the rarity of being a third-generation resident of the Sooke/Otter Point area (a rural region well beyond the core of Greater Victoria), and a clearly now holds the unique legacy of having carried on for the BC NDP in the riding that was held by John Horgan as the MLA for 18 years (other than Ravi Parmar holding that role for a year after the June 2023 by-election in Langford-Juan de Fuca).
Many people in the political community (through social media, etc) have expressed a sigh of relief that the controversy over Sapozhnikov’s comments won’t get into the mix of the new BC Conservative caucus.
Seeing the Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding flip to BC Conservative would have been a tumultuous shift for many across the Sooke community (including non-profits and local community leadership) within the geographically large Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding.
The Sooke School District (SD62) executive and leadership is also heavily loaded with BC NDP supporters and connections who will be relieved at the continuation of a BC NDP provincial government overall and specifically at having a BC NDP MLA for their region (given the continual need for capital funding to support more school construction).
Provincial scope:
As well, in the big picture, if the tight Juan de Fuca-Malahat race had produced a BC Conservative MLA, that singular outcome could have flipped the overall provincial seat count to a BC Conservative lead.
As it stands at 12 noon today, the BC NDP have now achieved a majority with 47 seats.
The Lajeunesse cliffhanger journey will likely be shared by many in the BC NDP caucus as the tales of Election 2024 become entrenched.
Mid-way margin of 116 votes(*):
Unless there are more absentee ballots to top up the Juan de Fuca-Malahat results during today’s final count (being updated hourly from 9 am by Elections BC today, October 28), Lajeunesse has pulled off this win with a margin of just 116* votes (as of 1 pm today).
[*=the vote margin number will be updated if absentee ballots on October 28 change the result.]
Update at 4 pm – the margin is now *127 votes, in favour of BC NDP/Lajeunesse.
That seems like a relatively large margin given that the difference was merely 23 votes at one point (though there was another riding Surrey-Guildford that had a 12-vote margin at one pointm and Surrey City Centre was also hotly contested through the recount phase).
It also should remind everyone that every vote really does count.
Results rolling in:
The results at 4 pm on October 28 show a 127-vote margin/lead/election for Dana Lajeunesse:
- BC NDP – Dana Lajeunesse – 9,272 votes (38.77%)
- BC Conservative – Marina Sapozhnikov – 9,145 votes (38.24%)
- BC Green – David Evans – 5,500 votes (23.00%)
At 5 pm the margin barely changed, now sitting at 125 with Lajeunesse still in the lead:
- BC NDP – Dana Lajeunesse – 9,272 votes (38.76%)
- BC Conservative – Marina Sapozhnikov – 9,147 votes (38.24%)
- BC Green – David Evans – 5,500 votes (22.99%)
Final count at 6:48 pm:
The final count in Juan de Fuca-Malahat on October 28, 2024 showed a 141-vote winning margin for Lajeunesse.
- BC NDP – Dana Lajeunesse – 9,308 votes (38.79%)
- BC Conservative – Marina Sapozhnikov – 9,167 votes (38.20%)
- BC Green – David Evans – 5,522 votes (23.01%)
Complex mix of communities:
With a geographical footprint of 3,116 sq km the newly-boundaried Juan de Fuca-Malahat is the largest riding on south Vancouver Island.
While the urbanizing area of Sooke seems to be at the core of it, the vast riding also includes Metchosin, East Sooke, Otter Point and beyond to Port Renfrew as well as communities on the east side of the island including Malahat, Mill Bay, Cobble Hill and Shawnigan Lake. The area is comprised almost entirely of small-town and rural communities including in the unincorporated Juan de Fuca electoral area (which includes towns like Jordan River and Shirley).
There are three prominent First Nations within the region: T’Sou-ke Nation, Beecher Bay, and Paacheedaht.
Mobility:
It seems an interesting juxtaposition of paradigms that the largest riding will be traversed by someone bound to a wheelchair.
Lajeunesse, now 61 years old, had an accident in 1989 that left him paralyzed from the waist down. That was after eight years working in forestry.
He then became a mechanical engineering technologist and taught for about 30 years at Camosun College before finding his opportunity to work close to home in Sooke as a District municipal councillor (2019 to present).
In Horgan’s footsteps:
Lajeunesse told Island Social Trends during the 2024 provincial election campaign that he will hope to carry on John Horgan’s work in the riding that has long included Sooke.
Horgan was MLA for the Juan de Fuca riding (also later called Langford-Juan de Fuca) for 18 years (2005-2023) during which time he was also Premier (2017-2022).
Projects already in the works that still require provincial support or funding include the Sooke Region Community Health facility, more capital funding for building schools within Sooke School District 62, and further transportation improvements including Highway 14 and Highway 1 Malahat.
Horgan had also quietly participated in a powerful in-community network of social supports for low-income residents in the Sooke area. For many years he would attend lunch at a local church hall that was free on Fridays for anyone who wished to attend. He once told Island Social Trends (then Sooke Voice News) that he found peace in that practice.
Agriculture and food security:
Lajeunesse will have the opportunity to help further support local agriculture and food resilience in the region that falls within Juan de Fuca-Malahat.
As the new MLA, he could find himself with the opportunity to help foster various farming and urban food initiatives at the provincial level, seeing as how south Vancouver Island is in a climate zone that allows nearly year-round growing.
Metchosin in particular has many farms and prides itself on being rural and a hub for local agriiculture, while the Sooke town area does have some higher-density urbanizing neighbourhoods in addition to small food-producing farms around the region.
Local food bank efforts in this region are as overloaded as any across the country.
Triggering a municipal by-election:
Lajeunesse has been a District of Sooke municipal councillor since 2019 (re-elected in 2022). Today Sooke Mayor Maja Tait said “Well done Dana!” when she heard the news of his win.
As Lajeunesse moves on to being an MLA that will open up a vacancy on the District of Sooke council, triggering a by-election within six months of his being sworn-in as MLA.
Another (possibly simultaneous) by-election would further be triggered if current federal NDP candidate Sooke Mayor Maja Tait were to win as the next MP for the federal riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.
===== RELATED:
- Cabinet possibilities in slim 47-seat BC NDP majority (October 28, 2024)
- Grinding through the process for final BC Election 2024 results (October 27, 2024)
- BC NDP candidates still leading in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre (October 26, 2024)
- Over 66,000 mail-in, special & absentee ballots to be counted this weekend (October 25, 2024)
- BC provincial election final count coming up Oct 28 (October 24, 2024)
- Tight race in Juan de Fuca-Malahat exposes long-time political divide (October 20, 2024)
- Fate of long-in-coming Sooke health centre in BC Election 2024 (October 18, 2024)
- Dana Lajeunesse hopes to follow in John Horgan’s local footsteps (October 12, 2024)
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat candidates face-off in Otter Point (September 29, 2024)
- Why do Sookies still complain about Highway 14? (September 15, 2024)
- BC NDP chooses Dana Lajeunesse as Juan de Fuca-Malahat candidate (July 21, 2024)
- NEWS SECTIONS: BC PROVINCIAL ELECTION 2024