Tuesday October 22, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted 1:19 pm | Updated 4:25 pm]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
In the last few days since the bombshell preliminary BC election results everyone has been waiting for at least one shoe to drop.
Which way will the 46/45 split go for the province (BC NDP got 46 seats and the BC Conservatives won 45)? At least two ridings are undergoing an automatic recount, for having a less-than-100 vote margin: about 23-vote margin in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and 95-vote margin in Surrey City Centre.
The BC Greens saw their leader Sonia Furstenau not win a seat. She ran in the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding that was a tough uphill battle against incumbent cabinet minister Grace Lore.
But today the BC Greens have announced today that Furstenau will stay on as party leader.
Leader’s decision:
According to the party, it’s party’s protocol that to stay on (without a seat) is the leader’s choice. “Sonia had full support of the council and MLAs,” said BC Greens Press Secretary JoJo Beattie today.
Since the Saturday night vote results on October 19, BC Green MLA Jeremy Valeriote has told media that the BC Greens can “stabilize, collaborate and moderate” in the new government, if the Greens are approached to help support a new minority BC NDP government.
In today’s BC Green announcement BC Greens Provincial Co-Chair Alex Pope said: “We are grateful to Sonia for agreeing to stay on as leader.” That makes it sound like she was asked. Pope says Furstenau was “instrumental in ensuring effective policy during the minority government” during 2017-2020.
Most political observers would agree with the party’s stance that Furstenau was “a distinct voice of hope in this overwhelmingly negative election campaign”, as Pope put it.
At least one unsuccessful candidate says that a poll of all the candidates would have been unanimous to have Furstenau stay on as a contributor to the team and the province.
At home in Fairfield:
Sonia Furstenau had made a “personal decision” to relocate from Cowichan Valley back to Victoria, as former MLA Adam Olsen confirmed on election night.
She chose to run in Victoria-Beacon Hill knowing it would be an uphill slog.
By staying on with the party without the pressures of the BC legislative daily grind that an MLA must undertake is probably a good fit for Furstenau’s temperament as a thinker and motivator.
Her expertise on policy and determination at improving legislation would probably have been sorely missed if she stepped aside at this time.
Powerful opportunity:
Premier Eby is practically inviting Furstenau through an open door to help keep the BC NDP in government.
This is a powerful political opportunity to bring at least some of the thoughtful and inspired BC Green platform into fruition during what looks like a short 43rd parliament. Best shot analysis is that a cobbled-together NDP/Green alliance might last at best to a second budget in spring 2026.
BC Conservative Leader John Rustad has said his role in government (probably as Official Opposition) would be to make it as difficult as possible for the BC NDP to govern. He wants a clear majority; another election sooner than later is in the interest of BC Conservatives. He has told his candidates to hold onto their campaign signage.
Getting down to work:
“British Columbians demonstrated that they don’t trust any one party with 100% of the power,” said Furtsenau in today’s BC Greens news release.
“They need our next government to leave the negativity and toxicity of the campaign behind, get down to work and start delivering for them. I am prepared to provide guidance and counsel as our party and our province enter this new chapter.”
In a news release today, BC Green MLAs Jeremy Valeriote (West Vancouver-Sea to Sky) and Rob Botterell (Saanich north and the Islands) said: “We’re glad to have Sonia’s strong leadership as we take on our new jobs as MLAs and navigate the prospect of having the balance of power in the Legislature,” the two MLAs-elect said.
“We are honoured that our constituents voted to send a BC Green Caucus to Victoria and we are ready to hit the ground running for them. Voters in our riding voted their conscience. We will honour that by staying true to our principles and serving as the voice of reason in the Legislature,” said Valeriote and Botterell in a joint news release today.
Premier Eby’s comment:
Today Premier David Eby in his first press conference since October 19 election night told media that the BC Greens have asked for some time to get organized with their approach to essentially being the balance of power in the legislature.
Eby says his BC NDP team is “ready to go on day one”. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Fall 2024 as it takes time for new MLAs in particular to get up to speed on their role, including cabinet ministers who Eby has yet to appoint.
===== RELATED:
- Premier David Eby’s first press conference following thin-margin BC election results (October 22, 2024)
- BC Greens celebrate Election 2024 in Victoria (October 19, 2024)
- Furstenau takes BC Green fight to downtown Victoria (February 1, 2024)
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