Monday September 16, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Updated September 17, 2024]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Two federal by-election results this evening are indicative of voter preference but also the power of local political teams.
So while it’s good news for the NDP that they held onto their stronghold in Elmwood-Transcona (in the Winnipeg area) and showed a respectable neck-and-neck with the Liberals in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (in the Montreal area), it’s not a reliable test of how a general election would pan out if held today.
- Leila Dance won for the NDP with 48.1% of the vote this evening in Elmwood-Transcona. The Conservatives came a very close second with 44.0% of the vote.
- Louis-Philippe Sauvé won for the Bloc with 28.0% of the vote this evening in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. Together the Liberals and NDP took 53.3% of the vote.
Analysis:
The NDP strength in Winnipeg is almost certainly due to the local NDP team that has helped keep the last two Blaikie MPs in their seats for over 40 years (Bill Blaikie in office 1979 to 2008, and then his son Daniel Blaikie in office 2015 to 2024).
Daniel Blaikie only recently stepped down from being an MP but has shifted to working for the NDP provincially in Manitoba where he would still be a strong source of NDP leadeship behind the scenes. Without the Blaikie boost the riding could have easily fallen to the Conservatives.
With the Bloc Québécois winning the Montreal by-election this evening it shows the strength of the Bloc in the overall scheme of things in Quebec. This will embolden the Bloc in their third-party status in the House of Commons. Right behind the Bloc win was the Liberal candidate in second-place but with the NDP result nipping at their heels.
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun had long been held by the federal Liberals. Losing their second by-election in a major city (they recently lost the by-election in St Pauls in Toronto) might give the Liberals a wake-up call. But the Liberals are prone to just ‘steady as she goes’ when things get rough rather than taking on any deeper introspection, as if the ship will just naturally right itself.
Looking to the general election:
The takeaway from the Montreal result is that the Liberals and NDP will both have a strong fighting chance against the Conservatives in a future general election, probably to maintain their current rankings (i.e. resulting in a minority Liberal government with enough NDP MPs to have sway on policy).
While the Liberals and NDP are distinctly different at their core, they will both be seeking voters who want a centre or left-leaning government in Canada. The real fight of the upcoming federal general election is whether Canada will maintain a centre-left tone or pivot hard to the right with the Conservatives.
The 44th parliament started their fall sitting today in the House of Commons in Ottawa. The minority Liberal government will depend on winning the favour of either the Bloc (with 32 seats) and/or the NDP (with 24 seats) in order to stay in power.
The next election is scheduled for October 20, 2025 but could come sooner if any confidence motion fails. Likely this arrangement will hobble along until the next federal budget is brought forward in spring 2025.
September 16 by-election results:
Federal by-election results on September 16, 2024 at 11:48 pm PDT:
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percent of Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDP-New Democratic Party | Leila Dance | 13,606 | 48.1 % |
| Conservative | Colin Reynolds | 12,448 | 44.0 % |
| Liberal | Ian MacIntyre | 1,360 | 4.8 % |
| Green Party | Nicolas Geddert | 366 | 1.3 % |
| People’s Party – PPC | Sarah Couture | 349 | 1.2 % |
| CFP | Zbig Strycharz | 132 | 0.5 % |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percent of Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloc Québécois | Louis-Philippe Sauvé | 8,884 | 28.0 % |
| Liberal | Laura Palestini | 8,636 | 27.2 % |
| NDP-New Democratic Party | Craig Sauvé | 8,262 | 26.1 % |
| Conservative | Louis Ialenti | 3,676 | 11.6 % |
| Green Party | Jency Mercier | 567 | 1.8 % |
| Independent | Tina Jiu Ru Zhu | 197 | 0.6 % |
| People’s Party – PPC | Gregory Yablunovsky | 156 | 0.5 % |
NDP caucus:
As a post by-election followup, the NDP caucus will hear from Leila Dance and Craig Sauvé at their Wednesday September 18 meeting.
===== RELATED:
- MPs heading back to Ottawa for fall sitting (September 12, 2024)
- Liberals bring in Mark Carney to chair economic task force (September 9, 2024)
- Federal political landscape keeps shifting, think twice for Election 2025 (September 7, 2024)
- NDP breaks free of supply and confidence agreement with Liberals (September 4, 2024)
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