Saturday September 7, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Updated September 8, 2024]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Why are the long-serving federal Liberals losing momentum in the public eye? What’s fueling the rush of some voters to jump onto the Conservatives bandwagon? Can the NDP convince Canadians of their small-party impact?
These are some big-scope questions that voters may wish to better understand as a federal election looms larger in the wake of the NDP cancelling their Supply and Confidence Agreement with the Liberals this past week. Cancellation of that deal has restored Liberal minority government status to the House of Commons, one that is not propped up by assured NDP support.
‘Government they deserve’:
So as not to hear some well-worn phrases uttered after the next federal election (currently scheduled for October 20, 2025), Canadians may wish to review their voting options.
Will we hear ‘voters get the government they deserve’ and ‘the voters are always right’? Those are the phrases often uttered by politicians and parties who lose.
Nearly 10 years in power:
The Liberals have enjoyed a relatively untouchable nearly 10-year run under their leader Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister since October 2015.
In their first term they introduced some new fresh blood into the rank of Members of Parliament, by having selected candidates who brought real-world career experience that did not include a political pedigree.
In some cases that worked, e.g. Bill Blair was a former major city police chief and that brought experience to defence and emergency preparedness portfolios. In some cases it didn’t work so well, e.g. Jodie Wilson-Raybould as a renegade Justice minister and Dr Jane Philpott as Health Minister.
Some younger fresh blood brought into the party as MPs in 2021 has helped put a younger face on an old-school-style political party in portfolios that are directly interfacing to communities, notably Sean Fraser (housing and infrastructure) and Jenna Sudds (child care).
Trudeau simply lucked out with lawyer Marc Miller in leading the Indigenous ministry, someone who speaks plainly and openly on challenging issues. And he eventually lucked out with Mélanie Joly who didn’t shine in the culture and heritage file but has delivered charm on the international foreign affairs circuit.
The Liberals governed through the pandemic in 2020, and through the economic recovery phases in 2021 and 2022. That sort of workload and responsibility would wear down the view of any party in the electorate’s view. Tough times make for weary thoughts.
Trudeau was born in to privilege and as the eldest son of his famous prime minister father Pierre Elliot Trudeau in a way had no other path to follow other than federal politics within the Liberal Party. That family background — both financial and political — makes for a tough Liberal ride in the prairie provinces, but has helped Liberal fortunes in some areas of BC.
The anti-Trudeau sentiment remains visceral in many parts of western Canada and that is unlikely to change. Densely populated ridings in Ontario and Quebec usually determine federal election voting outcomes.
If in any way Trudeau can shake the ‘old elite’ image of not just himself but also the larger ‘right to rule’ Liberal party psyche he might stand a chance to gain more seats in BC and other parts west of Ontario.
In BC, in the last few years the Liberals have found policy cameraderie with the BC NDP government on files like housing and child care.
But 10 years is a long time in politics. Ah, fickle is the electorate that will simply vote a different way just for the sake of change. To get themselves re-elected as government it will be important for the Liberals to come up with some fresh momentum after their cabinet retreat this coming week in Nanaimo. Something new for their usual voters to cling onto.
Choppy charged-up Conservative delivery:
In comes Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre like a freight train. His style is bombastic and simplistic. He catches voter attention with simple phrases and tricks of alliteration.
Of all the quips and lines, two themes seem to have stuck: ‘common sense Conservatives’ and ‘climate tax election’. Well, common sense is hardly the exclusive domain of one political realm and frankly few people really understand the complexities of carbon pricing policy.
But in the past few years some folks are frustrated with some significant shifts in social policy (e.g. how to deal with substance use and the release of criminals). The Conservatives seem to have achieved a political edge in seeming to have the answers on overall public safety issues.
No societal challenge has simple fixes. But Poilievre has gained a strong following across Canada — particularly west of Ontario — for being more outspoken (bordering on outrageous). This seems to appeal to a frustrated population that struggling with the cost of living, a long-standing housing shortage, and what seems like crime uncontrolled.
Explaining things in complex terms is not the Conservative way under Poilievre. Short snappy missives which catch the ear are more his style. But do the Conservatives capture the needs of Canadians for a better future?
Poilievre’s alignment with trucker convoy sympathizers and those who want to be ‘tough on crime’ will cement some voting blocks for the Conservatives.
Getting to root causes:
The federal party that aims to get at root causes for social and economic issues is the NDP. This is less alluring than the Liberal brand and less energetic than the Conservative messaging.
Developing policy (or submitting ‘asks’ to the governing party) to address root causes appeals to voters who have seen what life can do to people who don’t ‘fit’ the momentum of a robust modern society.
Piece by piece there have been these sorts of multi-generational-impact improvements thanks to the NDP, such as CERB during the pandemic (including protecting low-income seniors in the aftermath), seeing child care as an economic support for the workforce, making some commonly-used drugs (e.g. oral contraceptives and insulin) free, and launching free dental care for children and seniors.
And it has been the NDP that built momentum in challenging the corporate grocery pricing system as household affordability challenges increased since the pandemic.
Those are NDP-developed achievements that the Liberals can rightfully boast as their own, given that the government brought them into action. But the NDP under Jagmeet Singh will need to highlight that their party was the source of these ideas and how the NDP pushed for them through use of the Supply and Confidence Agreement.
Singh is now having to traverse some rocky terrain to get from ‘propping up the Liberals’ to now trumpeting the triumphs of the NDP — what they do now with the track record they’ve achieved in 2021-2024 could help them maintain at least their current seat count in the next election. Even with a small number of MPs they’ve proven how much the system can be worked to the benefit of people with everyday lives.
This year the NDP lost a key MP as Daniel Blaikie shifted to provincial in Manitoba. And some influential NDP seniority is not seeking re-election (e.g. Randall Garrison on Vancouver Island). The party will work hard to hold onto their well-established six-seat stronghold on Vancouver Island in the next federal election (Victoria, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, North Island-Powell River, and Courtenay-Alberni).
Voter responsibility:
It is the responsibility of Canadian citizens to think hard about their choice in any federal election.
Presently, big issues like the lack of enough housing to keep up with immigration, the greatly imbalanced economy that has nearly obliterated the middle class, and a rise in serious social challenges like violence and mental health are not for MPs that are faint of heart. Elected representatives must be prepared to grapple with these bigger issues.
For sure, it’s important to vote for a local MP who is tough enough for the job. But it’s also important to realize that their federal party affiliation will translate into the mix that forms the next (45th) Parliament.
Be smart, don’t be hoodwinked. Review your usual political allegiance (just in case) so you can make an impactful choice.
As present, the next Canadian federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025.
===== RELATED:
NEWS SECTIONS: CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION 2025 | POLITICS | VANCOUVER ISLAND
===== ABOUT THE WRITER:
Island Social Trends Editor Mary P Brooke has covered politics through a socioeconomic lens since 2008 on south Vancouver Island, notably 2014 through the weekly West Shore Voice News (2014-2020) and the daily Island Social Trends (2020 to present).
Since 2020, Ms Brooke has been reporting alongside the BC Legislative Press Gallery since covering the COVID pandemic daily in 2020-2022.
In 2022, Ms Brooke ran for school trustee in the west shore zone of Sooke School District 62.
In 2023, Mary P Brooke was nominated for a Jack Webster Foundation journalism award to recognize her community commitment through journalism.
In 2024, Mary Brooke launched the Urban Food Resilience Initiatives Society based in Langford.