Saturday December 21, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 7:04 pm | Updated 11:44 pm]
Sociopolitical analysis Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Trudeau is someone who trusts his instincts and believes in something higher … a big picture view for what Canada can be.
He seems to have had problems translating that into what Canadians and the country really need.
But that doesn’t mean he’s the wrong leader for the Liberal Party of Canada. It might mean that he has the wrong people around him.
For the reportedly one-third of the 153-MLA caucus who are insisting he should leave, this is a movement from among disgruntled back-benchers. Probably few of those would have succeeded in politics without the Trudeau brand under their wings as had first burst onto the scene in 2015.
The 38 MPs who are already in cabinet (including the ones most recently appointed on the last Friday before Christmas) are almost certainly to be a solid core of support for Trudeau.
The reported other one-third of the Liberal caucus is comprised of MPs who aren’t saying where they stand in this ping-pong game of ‘will he stay or will he leave’.
The question to all of his caucus — instead of to all the political pundits who have made a frenzy of Trudeau’s political leadership — should really be ‘will he lead or will he walk away’.
It’s not in Trudeau to walk away. The lottery of life placed him as the elder son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. It’s in the core of his being to lead in politics.
Full disclosure … this editor (always in the realm of politics or writing about it) met and chatted with the elder Trudeau back in the early 1980s. The discussion was notably about multiculturalism in Canada — that theme goes back a long way in the Trudeau leadership family mindset. It’s a mission.
Fair enough, Justin Trudeau was always enveloped in the so-called ‘Ottawa bubble’. Some of his closest friends have also been political comrades for all of his career including now Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs Dominic LeBlanc (son of the late 25th governor general of Canada from 1995 to 1999, Romeo LeBlanc), and his long-time chief of staff Katie Telford.
Trudeau all along has had former prime ministers just a phone call away as needed. He has traveled the country and the world. The BC side of his family has found him embedded in genuinely embracing the natural side of what Canada is.
Since becoming prime minister in 2015, Justin Trudeau has had both this country and the world as his stage. While perhaps not appreciated in every part of the globe, he has his finger on the pulse of the processes that shape global affairs.
Sometimes the least popular politician is the best one to lead in a time of crisis — one thinks of Churchill almost unexpectedly ending up leading Britain during the second world war (due to his gut instincts about Hitler) only to find disfavour with the popular in the next election (due to his falling back to political election campaign antics).
Christmas break:
A Christmas break for Trudeau is the most natural thing in the world especially for a man who was not only born on December 25 but carries Catholic beliefs.
The peppering of questions from Press Gallery media in Ottawa might be old-style and necessary, but it’s also something of a national embarrassment. The question of ‘will he lead’ is not entirely about political strategy for Trudeau, it’s about his vision for how the country will move forward.
Failures have piled up:
Most certainly Trudeau has failed on many key areas of socioeconomic delivery during his nearly 10 years as prime minister.
Housing comes first to mind, and linked with that any strategies (vs ideology) there may have been around immigration.
A drastically sad number of Canadians struggle just to put food on the table in large part because of the cost of owning or renting a place to live, let alone the disaster that is the availability of groceries (the very sustenance of life) through a corporate system that has a chokehold on nearly every household in this country.
This underbelly of decision-making deficiency that comes from having grown up in privilege has clearly disabled Trudeau’s ability to connect with the everyday person. Even though — with mercurial wit and theatrical panache — he is nearly inarguably one of the most successful retail politicians that Canada has ever had.
That he brought the third-place Liberal Party from the political wilderness to a majority government in 2015 is clear evidence of that.
But then life went on. The connections in business and politics were easy, the lifestyle ride was a charm. But Trudeau did rise to the occasion in statesman-like fashion to lead Canada through the COVID pandemic and dealt with the first round of Canada-US negotiations in the years just ahead of that.
Canada-US relations:
In November 2018 the CUSMA agreement was signed, with some modifications in December 2019. The Government of Canada says: “The final CUSMA outcome preserves key elements of NAFTA, modernizes disciplines to address modern trade challenges, reduces red tape at the border, and provides enhanced predictability and stability for workers and businesses across the integrated North American market. Overall, the modernization of NAFTA marks an important milestone in Canada’s economic relationship with the United States and Mexico.”
People may forget that the CUSMA deal has a 14-year term. Trudeau knows probably better than anyone the intricacies of dealing with former and now-elect US President Donald Trump who returns now to leading the world’s most powerful country with a better grip on how politics gets done.
Even though Chrystia Freeland (at the time Minister of Foreign Affairs) was a key frontline player in protecting Canada’s previous NAFTA agreement in the 2018-2019 period, she was also a high-point of dislike for Trump. Her relationship-building style was in high contrast with the usual arms-length hardline negotiating style of international politics, and this may have made Trump feel ‘itchy’ with discomfort.
Call Trudeau a leader for nearly jeopardizing his own political comfort this past week by setting Freeland aside (though not fully casting her aside). Freeland turned that move on Trudeau’s part into a spitfire resignation which actually lost time and traction for Canada in the work that needs to be done toward a strong phase of response and negotiation with the US.
The Freeland freefall:
The rest of this pre-Christmas week was largely about Freeland garnering her own traunch of loyalists around her; reportedly there were longer lineups for photos-with-Freeland at the year-end Liberal Christmas event than for Trudeau.
The Ottawa-based media has been led by obligation down the rabbit hole to follow Freeland’s next steps. One supposes we as Canadians across this vast country need them to do that, but it’s uncomfortable to watch.
Long-term thinking:
Trudeau has always been the long-term thinker (yes, forgetting many of the important basics like housing and grocery prices in the meantime). Who knows what was said over dinner at Mar-a-Lago in Florida with Trump on November 29, but axing Freeland from the cabinet soon thereafter may have resulted from an ultimatum from Trump — spoken or otherwise.
People who have been loyal to Trudeau all these years know that when it comes to a bigger vision for Canada that he trusts his instincts. Despite his becoming entangled with family influences that have led to some embarrassing moments (e.g. over-the-top costumes in India, and skipping an important event for the Tk’emlúps te Secwe̓pemc Nation to spend time on the beach in Tofino), it is this editor’s bet that Trudeau is over this Christmas holiday thinking about country first.
The Freeland fuss:
Freeland has indeed been the loyal foot solider in Trudeau’s government, leading up to 2015 and ever since (until the crash-and-burn resignation letter of December 16, 2024). She has been relied upon by Trudeau for her intellect, her political connections, her multi-lingual abilities and multi-cultural savvy, and steadfast loyalty in all things Liberal. However, with all feminism respected in this comment, she was not capable of ‘taking one for the team’ when Trudeau realized he has to put a difference face on the upcoming trade negotiations with the USA.
Reportedly Freeland was offered a position in cabinet without portfolio (an easy ride that could have been worn with elegance) but instead decided to be scrappy and very nearly throw her prime minister under the bus. The fact that she hugged Trudeau at the end of the caucus meeting two days after her bombshell letter might be sweet but it also shows inability to play the old-boys way of team politics.
As much as the old-boys way should have been booted to the curb decades ago, it’s how Trudeau operates in his corporate-political-style world; Freeland lost her cool in the moment and wasted a week of political attention to the bigger matters of the day, i.e. how the Trump tariff threat will thrust much of Canada into an economic tailspin less than a month from now.
Trudeau has held his tongue during Freeland’s fuss. The bigger player.
Freeland’s bombshell resignation — on the same day the Council of the Federation (COF) i.e. Canada’s Premiers were about to have a news conference about their Canada-USA deliberations — snuffed all the oxygen out of the day’s news cycle.
Properly hearing from the premiers of the provinces and territories on November 16 probably could have served Canadians across the country with news of what the premiers had been up to in their two-day Council of the Federation conference in Toronto (December 15 and 16). Freeland did call COF Chair Ontario Premier Doug Ford during their December 16 deliberations; he put her on speaker phone.
Hopefully after a thoughtful period over the holiday year-end, Freeland will be able to lead in Canada without disruption. Many Liberal insiders hold her favour but that does not hold well with everyday voters in all parts of Canada, particularly western Canada. Some BC MP’s might be better suited to political limelight in the weeks ahead such as Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver) and Minister of Citizens’ Services Terry Beech (Burnaby North-Seymour).
Liberals still sliding in the polls:
A poll this week was conducted across Canada by Ekos shows a drop in Liberal Party support since Freeland’s resignation (December 16-19, 2024 to just over 1,000 households by cellphone and landline phone). In the poll results it is hardly a good sign for the Liberal party that has trailed behind the Conservatives in similar polls (by various pollsters) for over a year.
The Ekos poll showed a 5-point loss for the Liberals and a two-point gain for the Conservatives.
The sentiment against the Trudeau-Freeland strategy team has long worn thin among voters who might be swayed to vote Liberal instead of Conservative in the next election. The Liberals have often benefited electorally by being ‘the second choice’ among mainstream voters, aiming to siphon off what would otherwise be Conservative votes.
As a journalist on the ground one hears comments like this from everyday Conservatives (about three years ago): “How did we end of up with Trudeau and Freeland leading our country?”. Both important Liberal thinkers, but not the face of Canada that the swelling Conservative opposition felt was right.
Moving to the left:
The Trudeau Liberal strategy has obviously been to pull the pendulum of social policy in particular far to the left, in ways that cannot be undone by a subsequent government. The pendulum will of course swing back, but not to its original starting point.
Singh and the NDP have needed Trudeau and the Liberals to bring forward into the Canadian way some very important changes that recently local MP Alistair MacGregor says Canada is now “radically transformed” (including dental care for low-income seniors, protection of federal workers from job erosion, and enhanced moves toward Pharmacare and child care).
Hence the Supply and Confidence Agreement between the Liberals and the NDP (which ran March 2022 to August 2024) that essentially propped up the minority Liberal government for most of this 44th parliament. For political reasons Singh needed to sever that tie a few months ago, as the next federal election approaches. And this week he has said that Trudeau ‘must resign’.
Regardless of which party forms government after the 2025 federal election it will be clear that Canada has matured, evolved and transformed in many ways since pre-2015.
Awkward response by the Opposition:
After the Freeland resignation, first NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh came bursting out of the gate demanding Trudeau’s resignation.
Then Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet declared that the end of the Trudeau government is fait accompli. The Bloc leader will always say that he and his party take decisions that support “Quebec and Canada”.
Then Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made his way back to the House of Commons on December 20 for a suitable TV backdrop, to say he would approach the Governor General to dissolve parliament. Procedurally that is not even possible but he sent the letter anyhow and posted it in social media. More bluster.
“I have written the Governor General confirming that the Prime Minister has lost the confidence of the House and that Parliament must be recalled to hold a vote before the end of the year on triggering an Axe The Tax election. I am asking the NDP leader to match his actions to his word and likewise send a letter to Her Excellency asking for the same.” ~ Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, December 20, 2024.
The Conservative leader is all about forming the next government of Canada, whatever it takes. Which comes back to what is best for Canada at this critical time of transition from a digital global-export economy (which over the last 40 years has warped Canadian living in a way that leaves many people far behind) to one that looks to an AI-driven economy that must now look forward while tending to the socioeconomic success for all Canadians (aka affordability but also productivity).
Politics is messy, but the various steps taken by the NDP over the past few years together with Trudeau’s willingness to take on good ideas where they were presented to him (such as the COVID response strategy proposed to Trudeau during a visit with the late BC Premier John Horgan in BC early on in the pandemic), shows that the broader interests of Canada have always been at play with Trudeau.
Anyone who has been through a marital separation or divorce will understand and see the strength that Trudeau has had in carrying on with the country’s business this year after separating from his wife.
Almost anyone in Canada who has worked hard this year to run their business, put food on the table, care for their family or represent their jurisdiction in government is thirsting for a Christmas-week break. Trudeau is doing no less.
It would be helpful to all for media to set aside all the misfiring and random interviews with people who might know what is going on, and let things settle in peace for a few days.
A quarter century of the 21st century has already rushed by. The 2025 new year is right around the corner.
The Canada-US challenge is already stuck like a thorn in the sides of many sectors of the economy and government. Best bet is that some in government and the civil service are not getting much of a break over Christmas toward New Year.
The rough and tumble of raw electoral politics is a brutal game. While no one in politics puts that entirely aside, these next few days would be a good time to try.
===== RELATED:
- Hospitality entrepreneur Wendy Lisogar-Cocchia appointed as BC’s new Lieutenant Governor (December 20, 2024)
- This is a radically transformed Canada says Alistair MacGregor MP (December 18, 2024)
- ‘Nothing can stop us’ Trudeau tells Liberals at year-end dinner (December 18, 2024)
- Canada’s Premiers prioritize Canada-US relations, energy security and improving health care (December 16, 2024)
- Dominic LeBlanc addresses media after being sworn in as Finance Minister (December 16, 2024)
- Finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigns from federal cabinet (December 16, 2024)
- celebration for a man with simple goals (December 15, 2024)
- US tariffs are coming says Ontario Premier Doug Ford (December 11, 2024)
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