Monday October 16, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Updated 10:10 pm]
BC ELECTION CAMPAIGN DAY 26 of 28
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Your 28-day voter’s guide for BC Election 2024
Today October 16 is the last day of advance voting in the 43rd BC Provincial Election. Voting places are open to 8 pm.
The full general election day (aka final voting day) is coming up on Saturday October 19, with all voting places open 8 am to 8 pm. [Click here for Where to Vote]
Predictions:
Only three days remain until election results are known.
But human nature and political analysis being what it is, here is a predicted outcome based on news coverage and analysis by Island Social Trends during the 28-day campaign and of course based on years of political news coverage prior to this election.
At this point the pre-election sense through many polls is that either the BC NDP or the BC Conservatives will form the next BC government, with BC Greens as again the third party in the legislature.
At this point it appears that the BC NDP will likely hold onto their majority by the skin of their teeth, but with a shakeup by a robust center-right vote that brings at least two dozen BC Conservative MLAs into the BC Legislative Assembly.
If the BC NDP end up with a minority win (less than 47 seats) they may try to form a Horgan-style Supply and Confidence Agreement with the BC Greens, or at least be receptive to Green legislative input so that votes are likely to pass in the legislature.
Provincial scope:
There are 93 electoral areas across BC (15 of those here on Vancouver Island). That means that at least 47 candidates from any party must win on October 19 in order to form a majority.
Overall, across the 93 electoral areas in BC, Island Social Trends is predicting this outcome on election night October 19, 2024 (compared to the number of MLAs at dissolution on September 21, 2024) as follows:
- BC NDP – 51 seats (down from 55 / losses in some BC Mainland ridings, the north, and perhaps on Vancouver Island). The loss of four seats will come from upsurgence of the BC Conservatives in some areas, vote-splitting as a result of popular BC Green candidates in some ridings, and in some cases disappointment with BC NDP performance over the past two to seven years. Barely holding onto a majority probably comes from not enough people being sure that the brand-new BC Conservatives should run the province (BC Conservatives have been benefiting by a raw desire for change in troubled times with a subset of voters who are against SOGI education in public schools but may not have proven breadth and depth for serious governance). The most compelling reason for British Columbians to return a BC NDP government (though close to the line of being a minority government) is for the Eby government to continue rolling out its affordability supports and people-first projects including capital projects like hospitals and schools. Also, voters do use common sense: many will want to maintain overall stability for the province in troubled times and not rock the boat with giving an untried BC Conservative Party a majority win in 2024.
- BC Conservatives – 34 seats (up from two who actually sat in the legislative assembly until May 2024; or up from eight MLAs registered with the party at September 21, 2024; or up from 28 if you include the BC United as the previous official opposition). Technically speaking, this is a boost of six seats on the center-right province-wide, largely by the popularity of BC Conservative Leader John Rustad. BC Conservatives will win some seats where the BC NDP incumbent has been a weak performer in the Eby government despite a strong campaign ground game.
- BC Greens – 4 or 5 seats (up from 2). This will be the electoral success story of the night, to see the third party possibly more than double its presence in the BC Legislative Assembly. One incumbent has run again in 2024 (i.e. BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau); it’s still an open call as to whether she wins the Victoria-Beacon Hill seat against BC NDP cabinet minister Grace Lore while BC Conservative candidate Tim Thielmann claims his support comes from BC NDP defectors. That possibly means four or five fresh new BC Green faces making their way to the 43rd parliament. In addition to Furstenau, most of the BC Green winning momentum is on Vancouver Island (possibly Ron Botterell in Saanich North and the Islands, Cammy Lockwood in Cowichan Valley, and David Evans in Juan de Fuca-Malahat), with perhaps one win on the BC Mainland (Jeremy Valeriote in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky).
- Independents – 2 or 3 seats (up from 2). This anomaly of independents winning during a general election (as opposed to becoming independent during a session due to various political foibles) is a fallout from the BC United Party pulling the plug on running any candidates in Election 2024. Looking at possible wins by Adam Walker (former BC NPD MLA, then independent) in Ladysmith-Oceanside, Karin Kirkpatrick (former BC United MLA) in West Vancouver-Capilano, and Tom Shypitka (former BC United MLA) in Kootenay-Rockies.
Analysis:
The above prediction of 51 seats for the BC NDP puts them in a slim majority government position (47 seats needed for a majority); but one MLA would become the speaker, leaving only 50 to cover majority votes in the house.
That sort of outcome would be a wake-up call for BC NDP Leader David Eby to perhaps be more open to input from the other parties as move-forward policy is developed. It may shake Eby’s certainty across all of his policies including health-care, housing and education. Any outcome less than 51 would put the BC NDP into damage control mode.
If the BC Conservatives do achieve anything above 25 seats they will claim a moral right to be a strong official opposition, using that leverage to push for various legislative changes. Most of the credit for that level of win will go to BC Conservative Leader John Rustad for pulling off a significant hit to the BC NDP’s momentum for the next four years.
If the BC Conservatives do get 34 or more seats, this will mark a pressured direction for the free-enterprise approach to the BC economy, even if the BC NDP technically holds a majority. Rustad is also gaining campaign fuel from the popularity of federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s presence in the political landscape.
Any victory for the BC Greens beyond two seats will be a significant win. It means that voters believe in the role of the Greens as ‘the conscience of the legislature’ and will expect specific accomplishments of a small but mighty team to effect legislative change in areas like climate change, environment, food security, health-care and education. The BC Greens are the only party to present a root-cause analysis of how to deal with poverty.
If any independents win on October 19 it will erode the momentum that the BC NDP was hoping for toward achieving another majority for four more years. It rears again the debate over constituency representation (and the individual careers of a few MLAs) versus the power of a political party to bring in legislation that serves a majority of the population.
South Vancouver Island:
Esquimalt-Colwood (includes Esquimalt, Colwood, View Royal and VicWest): This race was likely health-care advocate Camille Currie’s to win for the BC Greens until BC Conservative businessman candidate John Wilson eventually entered the race. The Esquimalt-Colwood race was lost for the BC NDP as soon as their well-known would-be incumbent Mitzi Dean stepped out of the race only three weeks before the writ dropped (regardless of who they put forth as their candidate though Darlene Rotchford with a health-care background is good representation for the party).
Juan de Fuca-Malahat (includes Sooke, Metchosin, Mill Bay, Cobble Hill, Shawnigan, Otter Point, and Port Renfrew): This is a very tight race between three candidates. Dana Lajeunesse might just pull off a win for the BC NDP in a riding that was previously held by John Horgan for so many years (with Ravi Parmar briefly the MLA in the previous Langford-Juan de Fuca from June 2023 to September 2024). But the BC Green campaign has been strong for David Evans there — as an articulate business man who has put transportation as his top issue he could break through as the winner. It’s possible the BC Conservative candidate Marina Sapozhnikov could win for the BC Conservatives if her campaign ground game has been consistently robust to pull the center-right vote.
Langford-Highlands is the tussle of titans in 2024. High-profile candidate BC NDP Ravi Parmar was SD62 school board chair for nearly 10 years in the west shore; he has a vast network and strong ground game with further support from his time as an MLA in the past year. As the incumbent Parmar has plenty of contacts across local government and the non-profit sector. But the BC Conservatives have brought in businessman powerhouse Mike Harris as their candidate who has gained the support of much of the longtime local Langford business community. The winner of this contest is quite unpredictable at this point, with a slight lean to Parmar for his incumbency. BC Green candidate Erin Cassels is very new to politics, but any committed Green votes will go her way (and could erode away some would-be BC NDP support).
Saanich South sees BC NDP incumbent Lana Popham fighting to return for a fifth term. People who are business-oriented may just be tired of her, which will give the edge to BC Conservative Adam Kubel even though he is almost unknown in political circles as he rides the blue wave. BC Green Ned Taylor has done a good job of keeping Greens on the map there.
Saanich North and the Islands. This is a high-profile fight where all three candidates have either a legal and/or government background. The BC NDP has pulled out a strong ground game for their candidate Sarah Riddell but Rob Botterell for the BC Greens has strong party support to keep the riding Green (former BC Green House Leader Adam Olsen was the MLA there 2017-2024). The BC Conservatives are running David Busch who could draw upon the business vote.
Victoria-Beacon Hill: Wow, this is the most significant riding to watch on Vancouver Island on election night. Will incumbent cabinet minster Grace Lore pull off a win for the BC NDP? Lore is up against BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau who in 2024 has burst down the doors of that downtown riding (once held by former BC NDP Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Carole James). BC Conservative candidate Tim Thielmann could gather up some of the center-right vote. But in Canadian politics overall it’s almost an obligation for voters to return a party leader to the legislature. This may be Sonia’s night!
Victoria Swan-Lake: When Rob Fleming retired from being the long-time BC NDP MLA in Victoria-Swan Lake the riding opportunities blew wide open. The BC NDP have Nina Krieger as there candidate; she is new politics and no match for the articulate political nuance that BC Green Christina Winter can deliver. Tm Taylor might siphon off some votes for the BC Conservatives but the winner here is likely Winter.
===== RELATED:
- Election Night Results – link to come
- BC Election 2024: advance voting on now for six days (October 10, 2024)
- Six days of advance voting in BC Election 2024 (October 3, 2024)
- NEWS SECTIONS: POLITICS | VANCOUVER ISLAND | BC ELECTION 2024