Sunday October 20, 2024 | SOOKE, BC [Posted at 12:44 pm | Last update at 9:37 pm]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
People outside of the Sooke region seem surprised at the close count in Juan de Fuca-Malahat in last night’s BC provincial election — the BC NDP and BC Conservative candidates have merely 23 votes between them:
- BC NDP – Dana Lajeunesse – 8,943 votes (38.53%)
- BC Conservative – Marina Sapozhnikov – 8,920 votes (38.43%)
- BC Green – David Evans – 5,346 votes (23.03%)
Seeing Sooke on the ground in real-time:
No surprised reaction here. With the Island Social Trends Vancouver Island news roots having been in the Sooke region — first as MapleLine Magazine (2008-2010), then the weekly Sooke Voice News (2011-2013), followed by the weekly West Shore Voice News (2014-2020) — we’ve seen things on the ground in real-time, for a long time.
The time period of our daily news coverage in the Sooke region happens to have parallelled much of the period that former Premier John Horgan was as MLA in Juan de Fuca (a riding by many names over the years, which always included Sooke).
When Horgan finally became Premier in July 2017 an angry big blue ‘DEM’ was spray-painted onto the front Sooke Community Hall in the heart of town. So while in 2017 the province’s legislative media reported on a progressive win for BC, a base root against all that was alive and well in Sooke. And it has festered because people’s concerns went unaddressed.
Knowledge of that DEM spray-painting incident never got noticed beyond our local readership (even one of Horgan’s long-time constituency staff didn’t know, as recently as two years ago), which at the very least demonstrates the power of Horgan’s missive to his new MLAs in 2017: “Work every day (on our BC NDP goals) as if it’s your last”.
Horgan’s magic:
Horgan achieved political success for himself and the BC NDP in the Sooke area largely because he was able to be transactional with the conservative base as a sort of fuel for the BC NDP objectives.
He had crafted a skill for ensuring that the seething resentment against progressive politics was well-harnessed within his brand of NDP. That was a once-in-a-generation skill.
Many people in community leadership in the Sooke region have told this editor over the years that they voted BC NDP (as far back as 2005) because of John Horgan himself, not to align with BC NDP politics. Rub off that varnish, and many of those people are again voting in alignment with their conservative values. That only became possible once the BC Conservatives emerged (returned) to the political scene under John Rustad’s leadership.
Juan de Fuca-Malahat BC NDP candidate Dana Lajeunesse — if after a recount he eventually wins — says he wants to carry on Horgan’s work in the riding. But the conservative roots of the region have been laid bare in the last few years, which BC Conservative candidate Marina Sapozhnikov and her team have capitalized on in BC Election 2024.
BC Green Party candidate David Evans — who came in third in Juan de Fuca-Malahat in last night’s election results — today says that the BC electorate overall “resorted to fear”. It was a polarized election race across the province, with the scenario in Juan de Fuca-Malahat being a crucible study of that phenomenon.
Next steps:
There is a 23-vote margin between Lajeunesse and Sapozhnikov in last night’s election results. A recount is automatically done by Elections BC in instances of a margin of 100 votes or less. Final count for all ridings will be done between October 26 and 28.
BC Conservative Leader John Rustad has built his party’s momentum with a ‘return to common sense’. But it’s more than that. There’s an element of suspicion about progress even when based on science.
Really listening to the people:
Living with common sense is, well, sensible. That’s not to be aligning with any political philosophy but because it works.
Rustad has ‘spoken to the the frustrations’ of people in BC as BC NDP Premier David Eby put it in his election night speech. That Eby didn’t already see the frustrations himself is what the election night result is all about… the BC NDP had (with all good intentions for a better world) not seen or responded to the frustrations of the broader BC population with enough legislative effectiveness.
Sure, Eby and his MLAs ‘listened to people’ but it oftentimes seemed like data-gathering that was not later integrated into responding with appropriate provincial directions.
Again, Sooke is a crucible for that. If Sapozhnikov wins after the recount she will be a singular example of how BC might need to deal with the many crises and issues. Take each each one, truthfully examine it, and make different choices. Ideally that will be guided by a progressive lens.
Rustad already implied in his speech on election night that he may force another election, to dig even deeper to bring forth a playing field for achieving real change.
Broad needs across a large riding:
The Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding of course includes more than Sooke. Within a vast geographical area (3,116 sq km) there is also Metchosin, East Sooke, Otter Point, Shirley, Port Renfrew, Cobble Hill, Malahat, and Shawnigan Lake.
Other than Sooke’s population growth driven by the real estate sector (under the guise of providing housing that is ‘more affordable’ than in the main Greater Victoria areas), the Juan de Fuca-Malahat riding is mostly rural. In that context Juan de Fuca-Malahat is also a microcosm of the urban/rural divide that continues to be at play in BC politics.
Comments from the re-count candidates:
Elections BC has officially announced a recount for Juan de Fuca-Malahat.
- Earlier today Dana Lajeunesse told Island Social Trends that he has “no comment” about the campaign he ran or the results in Juan de Fuca-Malahat.
- This afternoon Marina Sapozhnikov has told Island Social Trends that “nobody thought this riding had any hope” (of being anything other than NDP). “We knocked on every door we could get to. We worked hard. We made it very close,” she said.
===== RELATED:
- Official recounts, voter turnout, statement from Premier David Eby (October 20, updated October 21, 2024)
- Don’t be that voter who lets rain spoil the result (October 19, 2024)
- Who’s gonna win BC Election 2024? (October 16, 2024)
- Marina Sapozhnikov admires Rustad for his courage (October 13, 2024)
- Dana Lajeunesse hopes to follow in John Horgan’s local footsteps (October 12, 2024)
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