Monday August 18, 2025 | NATIONAL NEWS – Reporting from VICTORIA, BC [First posted at 8:15 pm PT | Updates 8:28 pm & 10:08 & 11:59 pm PT]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
UPDATE AT 11:59 pm PT: Poilievere has won with 80.4% of the vote (285 of 286 polls reporting 58.82% turnout.
Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre has handily won the federal by-election in the Conservative-safe Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot this evening with 79.7% of the vote (early results).
That’s with 229 of 286 polls reporting as posted on the Elections Canada website.
But even within six minutes of the voting results being posted Poilievre already had over 80% of votes cast to that point; Island Social Trends determined that as a reliable enough lead in a long-time Conservative stronghold to call a win.
The top four candidate standings with all but one poll reporting:
- Pierre Poilievre – CONSERVATIVE: 40,548 votes (80.4%)
- Bonnie Critchley – INDEPENDENT: 5,013 votes (9.9%)
- Darcy Spady – LIBERAL: 2,174 votes (4.3%)
- Katherine Swampy – NDP: 1,050 votes (2.1%)
AS PUBLISHED THROUGH THE EVENING – August 18, 2025 – UPDATES as RESULTS ROLL IN:
- With 15 of 286 polls reporting, Poilievre’s percentage of votes is 85.5% (11:12 pm ET). That 85.5% percentage is holding with 17 polls reporting (11:15 pm ET).
- 85.7% with 20 polls reporting (11:19 pm ET)
- 85.3% with 23 polls reporting (11:23 pm ET); Independent Bonnie Critchley is showing second-place standing, Liberal Darcy Spady third, United Party Grant Abraham fourth, and NDP Katherine Swampy fifth.
- 79.5% with 215 polls reporting (1 am ET)
- 79.7% with 229 polls reporting (1:07 am ET) / 37.3% voter turnout
- 80.1% with 274 polls reporting (2:14 am ET) / 50.5% turnout
- 80.4% with 285 polls reporting (2:34 am ET) / 58.82% turnout
Poilievre said in a speech this evening: “The road to success is never a straight line… Most of all, you should never give up in hard times.”
The by-election was called in June, after Battle River-Crowfoot Conservative MP Damien Kubek relinquished his seat so that Poilievre as the Conservative Party Leader could have a safe seat as a pathway to returning to the House of Commons.
Electors had to vote at their assigned polling station and write in the name of their candidate choice.
Counting of ballots began two hours before the polls closed, due to the volume of ballots that would all need to be counted by hand.
Loaded ballot:
Most of the 214 candidates names on the ballot were Independent (protesting electoral reform).
- The Liberal candidate was Darcy Spady. The NDP candidate was Katherine Swampy. The Green candidate was Ashley MacDonald.
- By the time all the ballots were counted, about 120 other candidates also received a small number of votes.
- The riding has a population of 110,212 people, with 85,736 registered electors. It’s a geographically large riding in east and central Alberta.
Having lost in April:
Poilievre lost his long-held seat in Carleton in Ottawa during the federal election on April 28, 2025.
An extraordinarily long list of names on the ballot in today’s by-election was also a factor in the general election ballot in Carleton, both seen as a mechanism to prevent Poilievre from winning.
Meanwhile, former Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer made a stable contribution on behalf of the Conservatives in the short spring term when the House sat May 26 to June 20.
Carney said shortly after the election that there would be ‘no games’ in terms of setting the timing of a by-election for Poilievre to return to the House.
Battle River-Crowfoot is considered a safe seat for the Conservative Leader given that Kubek had first won the riding with over 82% of the vote. This sort of stepping-aside for a leader is part of parliamentary system custom if not almost protocol.
Campaigning in Alberta was done by Poilevre this summer.
Poilievre gave his first media interview to national media (CBC), shortly after Island Social Trends wrote an ice-breaking editorial on July 7, 2025 which explored how campaign guidance may have been detrimental to the Conservatives over the last few elections.
Heading back to the House of Commons:
Now Carney and Poilievre toe to toe in the House of Commons when MPs return for a September 15 start to the Fall 2025 sitting.
Polievre is up for a leadership review in January 2026 (required of any Conservative leader whodoes not deliver a winning result for the Conservatives to form government).
Regardless of how well the Conservatives do in any future federal general election it seems certain that Kubek will (by having stepped aside for the current leader) have secured himself a favoured position in the party including possibly even as a future party leader.
===== RELATED:
- By-election & reshaping the Conservatives — will shifting Byrne’s role be of any help? (August 9, 2025)
- Byrne factor and how Canadians still want to believe in politics (July 7, 2025)
- Aug 18 by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot opens door for Poilievre’s return (June 30, 2025)
- Making room for Poilievre to get back into Parliament (June 19, 2025)
- Conservative leadership review coming up for Pierre Poilievre (June 16, 2025)
- Alberta MP steps down to make room for Poilievre by-election (May 29, 2025)
- NEWS SECTIONS: 45th PARLIAMENT OF CANADA | CONSERVATIVE PARTY | CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION 2025