Saturday March 8, 2025 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted 5:43 am PT | Updated 6:38 am]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Click here for LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RESULTS – MARK CARNEY WINS (March 9, 2025)
By Sunday evening, this country will know the name of their new prime minister.
It might take a day or two for the official transition, but after Sunday March 9 Canadians will be adjusting to the new Trump-threatened reality under the leadership of someone other than Justin Trudeau.
The Liberal leadership race has ended up being a contest for four contenders: Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould and Frank Baylis.
Based on polls and the opinion of pundits, it would appear that Mark Carney is in the lead to win this race.
Who votes:
Only members of the Liberal Party will vote to make this choice for Canadians. About 400,000 people have registered as Liberal Party members to vote in the March 9 ballot selection process.
Candidates:
One of those four candidates will — in some position or another — probably end up leading the next Liberal government.
We note on this International Women’s Day that this weekend two candidates for prime minister are women.
- Mark Carney brings his high-level economic background to the contest. He was the Governor of the Bank of Canada and after that also Governor of the Bank of England. He has served for Canada at the United Nations. He has done business in the US as well as Canada. He calls to roots in the western part of Canada (born in NWT and raised in Edmonton). Both he and his wife have played hockey. He is brand new to being a politician, on a steep trajectory from no political office to the top job. In these last days of the campaign Carney is pushing his gratitude for all that Canada has given him… family, education, values.
- Chrystia Freeland has been an MP since 2013, all through the Trudeau years. As of late she’s been attempting a charm offensive with those who are impressed with US media; she used to be a journalist in New York and appeared quite a lot on CNN. She was raised in rural Alberta but has raised her own family in an elite area of downtown Toronto. She is fluent in several languages including French, Ukrainian and Russian. She was indeed part of the team that pushed back on US President Donald Trump in the pre-pandemic years. In these last days of the campaign Freeland is still thumping the US airwaves and praising the Wall Street Journal.
- Karina Gould is new to the political scene for many Canadians but has been an MP for 10 years, developing her skills as a parliamentarian within the Trudeau government. A mother of young children, she and her husband see the reality of young adults raising families and dealing with today’s economy. She is a skilled debater and has introduced new energy to the campaign of a long-established political party. If not this time, Gould is now known to Canadians for the next round. In these last days of the campaign, Gould has been steadily gaining recognition for her calm, thoughtful approach to leadership for the country.
- Frank Baylis is a successful, self-made Montreal billionaire. During the leadership debates last month he brought forward some new ideas for redirecting the Canadian economy toward greater resilience and self-sufficiency. Having done business at million-dollar levels and employed many people, Baylis would be a top pick for cabinet if he does not win this race himself to be prime minister. He has already served as a Liberal MP for one term (2015-2019). In these last days of the campaign, Baylis is promoting his capacity to take on Donald Trump.
Cabinet selection:
Cabinet selection by the new prime minister will need to be swift after March 9 so that the Canadian government can get on with handling the key economic, social and political issues of this year and beyond.
Beating Trump:
Indeed, this race that started out months ago as ‘who can beat Poilievre’ has rapidly shifted to ‘who can deal with Trump’.
That capacity to stand up to the US presidential bully will probably be the deciding factor for the 400,000 who vote tomorrow.
Issues like the housing shortage, the cost of living challenge and the complexities of immigration and population growth have suddenly paled in the face of dealing with the US tariff war.
It will take more than political experience in the House of Commons. Canada’s next prime minister will need to be able to intuit Trump’s next moves and outsmart him at his reckless game of economic brinkmanship.
Debate coverage:
Live TV coverage of the leadership debate will begin at 1 pm Pacific on Sunday March 9. Revisit here at Island Social Trends for a followup editorial on the results.
===== RELATED:
- Mark Carney wins 2025 Liberal leadership race (March 9, 2025)
- LETTER TO THE EDITOR: If Carney wins it could mean austerity (March 8, 2025)
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