Thursday January 1, 2026 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 4:16 pm PT]
News feature by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Let’s start off with why we’re looking at the trends in Canada’s politics for 2026 through the lens of one politician.
Elizabeth May is a long-time MP, the leader of a one-MP party, the leader of a climate-action-based party, a woman in her 70s with a surge-forward career, someone who provided an alternative political voice on Vancouver Island for 14 years when the rest of the seats were held by another party, and who arguably has the respect of all MPs across the country as a hard-working Parliamentarian.
Island Social Trends had a chance to chat with Elizabeth May just before New Year’s Eve. She was at her Ottawa office doing year-end paperwork and took time to chat by phone.
Let’s dive in.
Surprises about the 2025 federal election results:
“It took a few days to sink in” that she was the only opposition leader who achieved re-election in the April 28, 2025 federal election.
“I was the only leader left standing,” said Elizabeth May in her interview with Island Social Trends during this week between Christmas and New Year.
That circumstance allows the Green Party leader to play a much bigger role in the House of Commons — as was seen in the weight of her one vote on the Budget in November 2025 making the difference to passage of the legislation or not.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievere failed to get re-elected in the riding he had held for 21 years (Nepean-Carleton 2004-2015 / Carleton 2015-2025). Jagmeet Singh who had been leader of the NDP since 2017 lost his seat in Burnaby Central (re-boundaried from Burnaby South).
Poliievre climbed his way back into the House of Commons by running and winning in an ultra-safe Conservative riding in Alberta last summer. Singh seemed almost relieved to have passed the torch, stepping back into private life although leaving a decimated NDP party (seven MPs) to carry the load with an interim leader.
Part of the time-lag for that realization of the Greens still left standing may have been what many people saw on the surface — i.e. that the federal Liberals maintained a minority government despite (or perhaps because of) having a new leader. But that general level of familiarity as to political governance seemed at first the same.
“But once Parliament resumed it sure did sink in,” said May. And she adds now eight months past the election: “I didn’t expect the parliament that we’ve got.”
May continues to thank the voters of Saanich-Gulf Islands for their support in re-electing her for a fifth term (first elected in 2011, re-elected in 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025). She shows up in and for her riding as frequently as she can, and knows the local issues. She feels that is her secret sauce.
Surprised about Carney:
Elizabeth May as Green Party Leader and the only Green MP in the House of Commons says “it’s not a lot of fun” working with Mark Carney. “There’s no conversation or relationship at all because he doesn’t need the votes,” says May.
“There is a lot that Carney has done that has surprised me,” she told Island Social Trends this week.
May notes that she used to meet weekly with former Prime Minister Trudeau, as did all the opposition party leaders. It was a way — for all involved — to at least get a clue as to what the other side was up to.
“He’s not who I thought he was at all,” says May about Carney in the role of Prime Minister. She was hoping he would want to work with the progressive parties in a collaborative way.
May herself will find herself providing parliamentary procedural tips and support to the small contingent of seven NDP MPs in this parliament, as they struggle without a taxpayer-funded stipend (12 MP seats are required for that). It’s her way of helping to ensure that she has opposition allies on votes of shared importance.
But as Canadians have seen, Carney is intensely focused on the macroeconomic shift that he is spearheading for this country in a way that seems to follow his own vision of a plan that not to require the softening touch of progressive input.
That’s not to say Carney is wrong — Canada clearly needs to shift away from economic reliance on the United States. Getting some of the economic and trade ‘eggs out that one basket’ is a massive undertaking that requires focus — perhaps not so much for Carney himself but for the Canadians watching from the outside looking in. Carney seems very conscious of not giving the impression to loyal Liberals and to Conservatives that he will be caving to NDP policy suggestions.
Carney seems to have satisfied himself with assuring Canadians that certain programs and policies perhaps viewed as ‘progressive’ (but which align with Canadian core values that Carney appears to champion) have not been touched and will remain in place — such as child care and the national school food program and a baseline form of Pharmacare for certain drugs and medical supports.
The prime minister who leads a ‘new Liberal government’ seems to continue trying to distance himself and his current Liberal MPs from the Liberal government that was led by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau’s governance included a Supply and Confidence Agreement with the NDP which achieved many positive steps forward for everyday Canadians. Carney has held onto the baby but tossed the bathwater.
Carney’s way of tacking the Liberal party to right of centre actually seems natural for him. It’s a political and economic territory where he can hope to satisfy investors and bankers and even woo some Conservative MPs over to the Liberal side of the aisle. In that vision of running the country, who needs progressives? But it could be political strategy on Carney’s part to absorb as much of the Conservative platform as possible as a way to fully prevent a Poilievre Conservative win in a future federal election.
Whether Poilievre is leader of the Conservatives come the next election (time line unknown) is another question.
Climate concerns:
“He is demonstrably not concerned about climate,” says Elizabeth May who has built her political career around climate change and protecting the environment — including back to her Sierra Club days.
She also says Carney is “more transactional” than she had expected of the former Bank of Canada Governor and big hedge-fund CEO. She feels he is thinking short term. The challenges are “generational and huge”, she admits.
She sees Carney sticking with the old ‘rip and ship’ style of resource extraction as Canada’s primary export (formerly referred to in political and economic circles as “hewers of wood and drawers of water”).
What’s still missing in the Canadian economic forward-vision is any vigorous talk about production, management, refining and processing of resources domestically within Canada.
Most Canadians might share May’s view on the shortcoming of that, given that Carney and most other economists have in Canada for over 25 years noted a lack of economic productivity and GDP growth.
“I will no longer give Mark Carney the benefit of the doubt,” said May in her interview with Island Social Trends this week. She is troubled that Canada — in the Carney budget plan — will rely on a foreign investment tax credit to attract investment to Canada. “I have trouble finding words for how I feel about that,” says May.
Carney getting things done:
“I’m very disappointed that he hasn’t maintained ‘elbows up’,” says May. Although clearly the reaction from Trump to Canada that ‘doth protest’ requires not provoking the bully.
She feels that Carney’s negotiation style has demonstrated a propensity to “cave too early and too fast and not getting enough in return”.
But let’s take a look at how things have and may yet unfold.
May did ask Carney to declare his support for climate policy as the requirement for her support of Budget 2025 in the House of Commons. in which case she supported the budget vote on November 5.
But in the federal government’s Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith later in November as to pipeline development in her province… there was a loosening of tight ties to carbon emissions. So much so, that long-time climate activist and still-loyal Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault resigned from his role as a Minister in Carney’s Liberal cabinet.
In reality, the realization of a pipeline from Alberta to the northwest coast of BC will be a difficult achievement that requires private capital and the lifting of the inner coast tanker ban along BC’s northern shores.
Carney made Smith happy and somehow a few days later produced a turnaround with BC Premier David Eby who seemed much calmed down about having been excluded from the MOU (which in hindsight was probably smart strategy on Carney’s part).
Carney kept Smith onside and meanwhile continues to favour BC with Major Projects Office support for critical minerals, LNG production and the North Coast Transmission Line electricity grid. When the dust settles, Carney will have bought himself some time and probably not lobbed damage upon the environment to the degree one might think (as targets weren’t being met under the current paradigm).
May is convinced that one of Canada’s national major projects needs to be an electrical grid that satisfies the entire country — east, west, north and south. Electricity should especially be decarbonized and cheaper, she says.
She’s not so sure about the wisdom of nuclear (which Ontario seems quite invested in despite the disposal issues for northern Ontario) but of course supports wind and solar.
Public transit and transportation needs to be “affordable and reliable”, says May. In the climate context that’s about getting more gasoline and diesel vehicles off the road, despite the enormous cost to set up public transportation whether bus fleets or trains.
Sovereignty:
Carney is not particularly strong on the sovereignty file, it seems to May. He caved without fuss on the Digital Services Tax (DST) which now robs Canada of billions of dollars in revenues that was sought through legislation passed in the House of Commons.
The DST could be back on the bargaining table during CUSMA trade talks in 2026. The Government of Canada web page on DST refers to the Digital Services Tax Act as ‘delayed until it is rescinded‘).
Elizabeth May is “horrified at the boot-licking” to US President Trump that was starkly seen when Carney’s dropping of the DST like a hot potato or a dirty old hat.
In addition to the revenue aspect, DST plays a role in digital democracy for Canada. The big tech giants have enormous leverage over Canadian society and the economy with their dominance in the tech sphere.
The DST was a modest way to maintain some dignity (sovereignty) but how easily that got tossed aside by Canada’s Prime Minister should rightly be worrisome for Canadians. Though it’s worth noting how the Vice-Chair of Microsoft was in Ottawa in November and generating press coverage about how that tech giant will essentially go to bat for Canada’s digital sovereignty where it can, if and when required. Carney has other angles to play.
As well, the DST was part of momentum by other countries with like-minded views on maintaining some digital boundaries with the onslaught of impacts from companies like Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook, Instagram), Microsoft and Nvidia which have significantly disrupted the online ecosystem and economy to the detriment of most small and mid-sized businesses.
As for the sovereignty aspect of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), the CPP Investment Board is not required to invest in Canadian-owned ventures only. For the Green Party Leader this is a concern.
Energy and food affordability:
Possibly the greatest concern for most Canadians is the cost of living and the uncertainty of making a steady income.
Elizabeth May’s big-picture perspective on reorienting the economy in the longer-term favour of Canadians is to ramp up the use of energy renewables. She points to what has been done in California where peoples’ energy bills are lower in their homes due to massive intentional investment by the state in retrofitting people’s homes to handle climate change (heating and cooling systems that are environmentally-friendly that also prevent lost of heat or cool air once produced).
“Carney’s going in the other direction. It’s very strange,’ says May.
She sees the problem of food prices through the lens of climate impact on certain foods (e.g. beef and coffee due to drought, as well as fruits and vegetables due to things like flooding by atmospheric river rainfall).
But she sees a big part of food cost resilience being achieved by way of consumer education about how to buy, cook and store fresh foods — which also happen to be more nutritious overall and have no additives that can contribute to poor health or even disease.
“The Liberals are out of touch with what it means to go to your grocery store,” says May.
Prime Minister Carney did admit on the campaign trail or since that he doesn’t do his own grocery shopping. Carney’s approach to management of the cost of food is macroeconomic — which is not wrong, but it does take time to produce evident results.
Carney said in one of his year-end national media interviews that improving competition is part of the solution to affordability. That takes major investment by the private sector and/or time and resource by government. That doesn’t happen overnight.
Income safety net:
What might be disturbing about knowing these things take time is in not underpinning people’s basic economic security in the meantime.
In that context Elizabeth May mentions the Green Party policy about Canada needing to have a Guaranteed Living Income (GLI) which would prevent people from falling between the cracks.
Clearly the outmoded Employment Insurance (EI) program based on full-time jobs with mid-size and large employers is insufficient as a social safety net in today’s fast-changing uncertain economy (among other things it doesn’t cover part-time and gig workers, or many self-employed people).
Housing affordability:
The answer here, for May, is injecting a lot more non-market housing supply into the system. That means more co-op, shared and co-housing.
Get away from housing as an investment commodity is the way to go here. The NDP also shared that view on the campaign trail in spring 2025.
Of course, many Canadians hold their largest investment in the housing market by owning a home. This is tricky political and economic territory to be changing the core economic model for many if not most Canadians at this point in time.
At this point in her life, Elizabeth May is a renter — both in Sidney in her home riding and in Ottawa. She feels this gives her more perspective on the issue than would be the case for the other party leaders.
Safety:
There needs to be a strong sense of community in Canada as part of weathering the storm against the ‘every many for himself approach that is pervasive from the United States in particular, says May.
Taking care of our neighbours is “a life still and benefit” that we have as Canadians, says May.
She is hoping that emergency preparedness continues with earnest specially in the seismic region of BC.
Back to Ottawa in January:
After a train trip in early January from Toronto back to her home riding on Canada’s west coast, Elizabeth May will be back in the 343-seat House of Commons for the January 26 start of session.
===== RELATED:
- Liberals aim for majority in 2026 House of Commons (December 21, 2025)
- BC Premier Eby responds calmly to pipeline MOU announcement (November 27, 2025)
- Carney and Smith sign pipeline MOU to facilitate economic growth (November 27, 2025)
- Poilievre wins Aug 18 by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot (August 18, 2025)
- Elizabeth May on solo Green journey back to Ottawa (May 23, 2025)
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