Tuesday June 4, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Updated 3:15 pm]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
It’s already yesterday’s news that former BC United MLA has switched allegiance to the Conservative Party of BC.
This continues the right-leaning trend of BC United MLAs shifting over to join a party that is more extreme, but perhaps gives candidates a better chance of winning in the fast-approaching 2024 BC provincial election.
The right-leaning phenomenon is a natural rebalancing against the strident left-leaning policies of the BC NDP government over the past several years, particularly more so under Premier David Eby since the end of 2022.
Sturko is the second BC United MLA to jump ship from the struggling BC United Party in recent days. Just four days ago Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Lorne Doerkson did the same thing.
Election timing:
The election date is October 19, but advance voting will be available earlier in October; timing seems tight for last-minute candidacy shifts. The official pre-campaign period begins July 23. The writ drops on September 21 at which time campaigning officially begins. [Dates provided on the Elections BC website]
Jumping ship:
But jumping ship shouldn’t really surprise any watchers of BC politics given the exodus from the BC United (former BC Liberal) Party ranks that was already picking up steam last month with talks of merging the two parties.
Sturko has been vocal on public safety issues in particular during legislative debate this past year or so. Her career background includes policing and military. Perhaps her hard line on public safety was too much for BC United Leader Kevin Falcon who is trying to maintain a centre-right party option for voters.
Falcon did say yesterday that he has felt “betrayed” by Sturko’s departure. Meanwhile, BC Conservative Leader John Rustad was beaming next to Sturko during her media session at the legislative buildings yesterday.
Betrayal is usually felt when the person has been generally unaware of the other person’s change in direction. “I’m disappointed and frankly shocked at the decision Elenore chose to make, especially going over to a party that she has long disavowed to me and to caucus as being too extremist,” said Falcon in social media yesterday regarding Sturko’s defection to the Conservatives of BC.
But Falcon might be being a bit hard on himself. The opportunism factor of Sturko’s switch is the likely the strongest reason in the practicalities of winning in politics.
Sturko had also mentioned today in an interview on Global TV that she’d been hearing concerns “in the community about vote-splitting on the right”. So to have a more assured shot at being re-elected, do that with the party that appears to be in the lead right now.
But not out of the blue:
Sturko’s frustration may have been building for a while, as evidenced in what the Speaker in the Legislative Assembly considered an outburst by Sturko in one of the last days of the legislative session in mid-May: ‘Member, get a hold of yourself’, was the uncharacteristically harsh directive from Speak Raj Chouhan.
In her TV interview on Global this morning, she said that discussions have been going on for a while with Rustad.
In their social media post yesterday about Sturko’s switch, the BC Conservatives gave evidence of some strategic candidate placement: “Elenore Sturko for Surrey-Cloverdale! Elenore Sturko was elected as the Surrey South MLA on September 10, 2022. A long-time Surrey resident, Elenore has dedicated her career to serving BC, both in uniform and as an MLA.”
Was she paying attention to the polls shows voter interest increasing for the BC Conservatives? Indeed. But when asked about why BC United is not ‘resonating’ with people in recent election-season polls, Elenore Sturko pointed to Kevin Falcon’s leadership. “We can only ignore the polls for so long,” said Sturko.
SOGI issue:
In addition to the public safety issue, Sturko wants to take another look at SOGI (Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity) curriculum in the BC public education system. Sturko herself is openly lesbian, married to a woman, and mother to three children.
Falcon’s instincts may have been that tampering with a stance to change SOGI would lose votes for BC United in a battle with the BC NDP this fall. But the Conservatives of BC are robust about the SOGI issue as part of attracting and building their ‘common sense’ base.
“We definitely need to take a look at SOGI,” say Sturko yesterday regarding BC Conservative policy to scrap it in the province’s K-12 curriculum. She says that something new should be build as a way to rebuild trust.
In particular, one BC NDP MLA with a strong gender equity background, Grace Lore (currently Minister of Children and Family Development), said in social media yesterday: “I know Sturko was upset by the anti-trans bill the Cons introduced, yet she is joining them. Stand for the rights, joy, & equity of people or go with the polls? Disappointing is not the right word – it’s hurtful, dangerous – we can’t let our province move in this direction.”
Matt Hannah with the BC NDP caucus has posted in social media today: “So not only did @elenoresturko not get an apology from John Rustad for comparing SOGI to residential schools, but Rustad repeated that comparison again this morning. And this is after Sturko said she raised this exact concern with him.”
As well, in October 2023 Sturko sought an apology about Rustad referring to homosexuality as a “lifestyle”. In that context, Sturko could be a good thing for the Conservatives of BC, if she keeps them on the straight and narrow about things being accurate.
Candidate count:
As of today June 4, there are 54 BC United candidates listed on their party website (24 MLAs currently), while the BC Conservatives show 63 candidates (4 MLAs currently). The BC Greens currently have 17 candidates (2 MLAs currently).
The BC NDP which held the majority of seats at the end of the Spring 2024 legislative session (55 of 87 seats) are expected to run a full slate of candidates, one in each of the now 93 ridings. Electoral boundaries are regularly changed every couple of election cycles to reflect shifts in population location and numbers.
[Fast-links to the 4 major BC party candidate lists are in the Election Section in the Island Social Trends Community Calendar]
The BC Liberals (now BC United) got six new MLAs elected since 2020. Only one of them, Trevor Halford, is running for the party again in 2024.
