Tuesday June 23, 2020 ~ VICTORIA, BC
by Mary Brooke, B.Sc., editor ~ West Shore Voice News
We’re hovering at a level of physical contact and interaction in BC that is on the threshold of increasing the infection rate of COVID-19,
This was the main message in the latest COVID-19 data modelling in BC, as outlined today in a ‘Going Forward’ presentation by Provincial Health Officer Dr Bonnie Henry.
Today’s new information about COVID-19 is the fifth set of data modelling during the pandemic so far in BC. Most of the information shows that people are getting back to somewhat normal levels of activities in their lives — including shopping, school and going to workplaces outside the home. There’s also an increased use of parks and outdoor spaces.
The data also shows that physical distancing and other measures (like frequent handwashing and staying home if ill) must also be working, as the number of cases (and numbers of people in hospital and more so in ICU) is not dramatically increasing, despite more movement of people in communities.
The models suggests that contact rates among people since mid-May are roughly 65% of normal, which is near the threshold for a rebound in new cases. If it gets to 70% or 75% there could be an increase in transmissions and infection. That will increase the load on public health contact tracing services, and on the hospital system where Health Minister Adrian Dix is trying to keep levels of regular surgical services back at nearly pre-COVID levels.
Both Dr Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix ask British Columbians to continue to ‘remain all in’ to the public health measures that are proven to work: physical distancing, frequent hand washing, staying home if you’re ill, and wearing a mask if you can’t maintain a 2-metre distance from others.
Our choices for social interactions and travel:
What will people’s social behavior be looking like if we’re surpassing 70% or 75%? What would people be doing, or not doing? Today West Shore Voice News posed that question to Dr Henry. What will be the clues be in terms of behaviour – in ourselves or others — that we’re getting into the danger zone of contact that would lead to increased transmission?
“People starting to have big parties with more than 50 people, those are the sort of things,” said Dr Henry. She cited that as one example of an environment in which “somebody can bring the virus in and spread to a number of people”.
“We’ve seen that with family gatherings where people inadvertently infected family members,” she said. She pointed to a large church gathering that was held in Oregon which led to further spread of COVID-19. “That’s the sort of thing we want to avoid – I can’t tell you what an individual behaviour is.”
The data modelling representation shows that “what we’re doing we need to continue doing”, said Dr Henry. She reiterated that these “things we do make a difference, even as we travel more and in other parts of province”, including camping and with expanded social networks.
