Saturday April 26, 2026 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 11:45 am | Last update at 5:17 pm on April 27, 2025]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Most voters seem concerned about how Canada will get through and emerge from the economic crisis that the United States has imposed on this country.
That so-called ‘Trump factor’ has overshadowed the discussion of many other issues that most Canadians are also worried about: housing, household affordability, immigration levels, jobs, and protecting the environment.
Each of the major political parties — Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Green and Bloc –of course want their candidates to be selected by voters on Election Day.
Strategic voting:
There’s nothing new about the concept of strategic voting. But it seems to have become a prominent matter raised by voters, candidates and parties in this 45th federal general election.
‘Strategic voting’ encapsulates the idea of voting against some of your own beliefs or preferences in order to satisfy what is perceived to be a more pressing matter.
The stakes are high as to what the next federal government does over the next few years to guide Canada through the inevitable need for an economic shift. The externally-imposed shift is pretty much seen as necessary by all parties, as well as provinces, and voters.
People across Canada have risen to the challenge of fighting for Canada’s distinctiveness, if not our very sovereignty. “Elbows up” is the very least of it; people are highly conscious of the source of the products and services they buy, with an intention to ‘buy Canadian’. Our nation may look back on this years from now and be grateful for the pressures that have forced this resurrection of Canadian pride and resilience.
Meanwhile, there is the task at hand on Monday April 28 for voters to select their next government (noting that already 25% of eligible voters have cast their ballot in the advance voting process last week).
Party leaders in their own ridings:
Voters should remember that the party leaders they see so much in news coverage, ads and memes are not on their ballot unless they live in the riding where the leader is running to be the local member of parliament:
- Liberal Leader Mark Carney – local candidate in Nepean (Ontario)
- Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre – local candidate in Carleton (Ontario)
- NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh – local candidate in Burnaby Central (BC)
- Green Co-Leader Elizabeth May – local candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands (BC)
- Green Co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault – local candidate in Outrement (QC)
- Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet – local candidate in Beloeil—Chambly (QC)
Single issue voting:
There is also the tendency for voters to choose a party (and thereby their local candidate) based on a single issue.
Single issues have value. They indicate what really matters to a voter, a community or a particular challenge in society. These become ‘firm’ votes that sometimes turn a blind eye to party or candidate.
- Prominent issues across the country in Election 2025 include economic resilience and sovereignty in the face of the US threat, affordability (housing, groceries), jobs, shifting to a green-tech society, and public safety (including as related to mental health). All four major parties have addressed these in one way or another.
- Issues that matter on Vancouver Island include the ferries component of the transportation system, protection of the coastal environment, more federal dollars for housing and infrastructure, and food resilience.
Unintended consequences:
But single-issue votes can turn an election result in unexpected ways. Or have unintended consequences.
For example, the fear-factor around Trump’s impact on the Canadian economy and our very sovereignty might sweep in a Liberal majority government (due to the strength of Mark Carney’s career resume) but the country could end up with not enough of a mixed flavour in the House of Commons to fully address the needs of most Canadians. And the elephant in the room: Carney is not an experienced politician — there may be national or international moments when that could have consequences.
Another example is the sheer visceral desire for ‘change’ that the Conservatives are carrying in this election. Canadians who vote Conservative with this frustration in mind might end up with a free enterprise, strong-on-crime approach to governance (and even having no more CBC) that could turn our country’s compass on its ear for a decade or more.
A single-issue voter who blindly chooses NDP for their distinctive third-party impact in the House of Commons will be contributing to that dynamic of the NDP being the ‘conscience’ of Parliament. In choosing NDP for that reason allows possibly unintended wins for Conservatives or Liberals which in Election 2025 will probably contribute to a strong result for Liberal or Conservative.
A single-issue voter who chooses Green is speaking to the future — some of the Green platform ideas are insightful and could produce dynamic change if implemented. But again this siphons off votes that often allow either Liberal or Conservative candidates to win.
A topic for a future analysis, is how a ranked ballot (instead of first past the post) could resolve most of this need for so-called strategic voting.
Deal-breakers:
Here are what might be the single over-riding issues to choose one party over another in Election 2025, i.e. the deal-breakers that set a person’s vote firmly in one camp over all the others:
Liberal – A party with a leader who can best deal with economic challenges presented by the United States, though note that while Carney is suited for this he is otherwise not politically experienced in other ways that may matter over the next four years. Other single issues where the Liberals are strong: interprovincial trade and economic diversification (including critical minerals and lumber), national parks.
Liberal candidates on south Vancouver Island are: Will Greaves (Victoria), Blair Herbert (Cowichan-Malahat-Langford), Stephanie McLean (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke), and David Beckham (Saanich-Gulf Islands); and Michelle Corfield (Nanaimo-Ladysmith).
Conservative – A party that might toss out the Liberals (this is the ‘change’ factor in Election 2025 driven by Poilievre’s intense approach to the economy, crime and government spending). Other single issues where the Conservatives are strong: they appeal to voters who desire a free-enterprise approach to business, and tend to garner the rural vote. Poilievre says he would disband the CBC; some people feel that’s going too far and that might shift their vote to the Liberals.
Conservative candidates on south Vancouver Island are: Angus Ross (Victoria), Jeff Kibble (Cowichan-Malahat-Langford), Grant Cool (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke), and Cathie Ounstead (Saanich-Gulf Islands); and Tamara Kronis (Nanaimo-Ladysmith).
NDP – A party that asserts itself as the counterpoint to large corporate-style government in the House of Commons is a safe bet for people who see room for third-party progressive pressure on legislation. Other single issues where the NDP is strong: singling out key consumer matters and targeting change on them (e.g. grocery prices, worker rights, and health-care including dental care and Pharmacare).
NDP candidates on south Vancouver Island are: Laurel Collins, incumbent (Victoria), Alistair MacGregor, incumbent (Cowichan-Malahat-Langford), Maja Tait (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke), and Colin Plant (Saanich-Gulf Islands); and Lisa Marie Barron, incumbent (Nanaimo-Ladysmith).
Green – A party that introduces specific ideas for socioeconomic advancement . But unless they are substantively effective in their local communities voting for those candidates may split the vote to the favour of either Liberals or Conservatives. Single issues where the Greens are strong: Guaranteed Livable Income and tying that in as a root-cause solution for homelessness, pushing for an increase in the Disability Benefit.
Green candidates on south Vancouver Island are: Michael Doherty (Victoria), Kathleen Code (Cowichan-Malahat-Langford), Ben Homer-Dixon (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke), and Elizabeth May, incumbent (Saanich-Gulf Islands); and Paul Manly (Nanaimo-Ladysmith).
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