Saturday August 9, 2025 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 6:55 am PT]
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Just one month ago, this editor at Island Social Trends wrote a silence-breaking editorial Byrne factor and how Canadians still want to believe in politics. We dared to say it — that the role Jenni Byrne had played as Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievere’s campaign manager in the spring 2025 federal election may have been a component of his downfall and that of his party in their hope to form government.
Within a few days of Island Social Trends publishing that July 7 editorial, the CBC landed their first interview with Poilievre in three years (had they stopped trying?). Poilievre’s re-emergent one-on-one media interview was with Catherine Cullen of CBC Radio’s The House. Canadians had gone three years — including through the 45th general federal election — without one regular news interview with the Conservative Party leader.
What was the source of that public-facing arrogance that media (and by extension, Canadian electorate) be excluded from the democratic process?
Bryne factor:
Yesterday on CBC’s Power and Politics, host Katie Simpson expressed enthusiasm over the content of a one-hour podcast interview with Jenni Byrne as if it revealed real progress. The interview with Byrne by ‘Beyond a Ballot’ podcaster Rachel Segal (apparently a former Conservative government staffer) was easily not an unbiased stunt.
Segal told Simpson yesterday that “hopefully” Poilievre will win the by-election on August 18 in Alberta — clearly not ‘truthrevealed’ unbiased journalism as the podcast content was being portrayed in the moment by CBC.
Changed, remains the same:
Evidently, Byrne will not run the next campaign for the Conservative Party Leader, though she will continue to advise Poilievere. So not a lot has changed.
Someone whose obvious raison-d’etre is to manipulate democracy through political party mechanics will not be changing her stripes (you know, the saying that ‘a leopard doesn’t change its spots’).
It seems, therefore, to be a continuation of smoke and mirrors to keep Poilievre at the top of the Conservative ticket. It’s one thing (bad enough) to try that outwardly to the voting electorate, but it also deeply troubles people within the party who were hardlined (e.g. muzzled from speaking to media) during the latest federal campaign.
Losing his Ottawa riding:
When asked about why Byrne with all her trusted campaign mastery didn’t achieve a win for Poilievre in his long-term riding of Carleton in Ottawa, on the podcast this week Byrne said something to the effect of wishing they’d seen the train wreck coming sooner than they did Andd that she wasn’t sure “what we could have done about it at the time”. Not even a late try by the campaign. No try at all.
If they truly didn’t see the flat-out failure of Poilievre in Carleton well ahead of the April 28 election, where’s the value in high-priced consulting?
In the Segal podcast this week, Byrne said she feels strongly that Poilievre will maintain the support of the Conservative party so as to continue as their leader. But under what circumstances would she say otherwise?
Is there still a vested interest in being overly confident as Poilievre mops up that mess?
The Conservatives still don’t seem to have done a post-mortem as to why they lost the 2025 election even while gaining more seats. Yes, votes were driven from the NDP to the Liberals that may have otherwise turned to Conservative in the face of economic uncertainty in the trade war with the US. But the uncertainty of Pierre Poilievre himself and his view of where the Conservatives should go after 10 years of the Liberals under Trudeau was possibly equally a factor.
In everyday practicality, it was the intentionally extra-long ballot by anti-Poilievre forces that cratered the Conservative Party Leader’s hopes of being re-elected in his home riding. But what motivated that effort? Do the Conservatives feel it was about just tinkering with the mechanics of ballot loading and not anything they may have been doing (or not doing)?
Byrne staying on as a consultant to Poilievre and the Conservative team could — at this point in time — be what she would naturally say, to help ease some of the angst being expressed across the country by Conservative Party members including former candidate nominees.
EVen though Byrne says she won’t be actively running campaigns for him anymore, her influence in the background could still loom large. Voters across Canada — regardless of party — rankle at the idea of so much backroom power that steps on the skirt-hem of democracy.
However, as was the premise of our July 7 editorial “Bryne factor and how Canadians still want to believe in politics”, perhaps Bryne stepping back from being front-line campaign muscle will be a positive turning point for the Conservatives. Her belief in micro-managed political mechanisms is of a time gone by.
Even if Poilievre wins the August 18 by-election and handily succeeds in the Conservative leadership review in January 2026, he still has the rest of Canada to convince that he is the one his party needs for shaping a new path for the Conservative Party in this country.
Safe by-election:
Poilievre has chosen a very safe riding for his upcoming by-election — Battle River-Crowfoot has long been a Conservative safe space; the MP elected there on April 28, Damien Kubek, volunteered to step down so Poilievre could run there.
In his by-election campaign this week Poilievre has pitched about being ‘Alberta’s voice in Ottawa’ — as if that might be a newly-discovered need. For decades Albertan Conservatives have been complaining about disconnection from if not neglect by Ottawa — ever since the Pierre Trudeau days of the 1970s Liberal government and certainly through the 20 or so years that Poilievre has been a politician (and cabinet minister under Harper) in Ottawa.
Liberals have filled the space:
Meanwhile, Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney is governing as a progressive conservative — not only taking the reins of economic redevelopment for this country but also bolstering the military in ways Liberals would not normally do.
For all the critique of Carney that he came into his new role without political experience, he seems in short order to not only have decimated the NDP (that party ended up with just seven seats after the dust settled in the 45th general election in April 2025) but he’s occupying the traditional footprint of how a Conservative government would perform.
Canada obviously needs a blend of what the traditional Liberal and Conservative parties have usually offered. And then there is, ironically, a stronger path for the NDP, to counterbalance the industriousness of big-party governance.
Reshaping the Conservatives:
If Poilievre has any chance to be the Conservative Party’s leader in the next federal election (say, two or three years from now), he will need to find a genuine new path of his own, not one contrived by consultants or shaped by the machinations of party politics or the insular world of Ottawa parliamentary dynamics. People who have put their faith in his leadership — if they still hold onto that — likely hope that Poilievre can craft a vision of practical (aka common sense) but forward-thinking conservatism. This is, afterall, the new age of people still struggling for human dignity while being able to put a roof over their heads and get that satisfaction and reward of a ‘good day’s work’.
A renewed Conservative government– if that were to ever happen — would be able, on some parliamentary votes, to even woo the NDP’s support — for example when it comes to rights for workers. A renewed Conservative Party would find ways to not be completely hard line on issues of public safety — yes, there are needs and expectations of dealing with crime but life is not black and white (The Liberals attempted that but bail reform is still clearly needed).
A renewed Conservative Party should be able to figure out how to re-introduce free enterprise in a way that does not leave anyone behind. But it may not be in their party DNA to be that unselfish.
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===== RELATED:
- Byrne factor and how Canadians still want to believe in politics (July 7, 2025)
- Aug 18 by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot opens door for Poilievre’s return (June 30, 2025)
- Making room for Poilievre to get back into Parliament (June 19, 2025)
- Alberta MP steps down to make room for Poilievre by-election (May 29, 2025)
- NEWS SECTIONS: CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF CANADA | 45th CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION | EDITORIALS