Saturday October 19, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC [Posted at 3:10 pm | First of several updates at 12:39 am October 20, 2024 | Latest update on October 21, 2024]
BC ELECTION DAY
Election day commentary by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Your 28-day voter’s guide for BC Election 2024
The BC Election 2024 preliminary voting results are in!
Island Social Trends was out at various election night locations, despite the rain!
Election Results:
Still at midnight, the results are very close, and there is no clear party winner yet.
- A majority requires 47 seats. The BC NDP so far shows 46 seats and the BC Conservatives 45, with the BC Greens at 2.
- In his speech at 11:20 pm tonight, Premier David Eby strongly implied that he will look to the two new BC Green MLAs to collaboratively address progressive issues and support people in BC.
- Eby acknowledged that his opponent BC Conservative Leader John Rustad did a good job in picking up on people’s frustrations in BC.
Provincial Party Results:
- BC NDP – 46 (one seat short of a majority)
- BC Conservatives – 45
- BC Greens – 2
- Independents – 0
Elections BC news release at 12:12 am October 20, 2024:
- 99.72% of preliminary results have been reported, and counting was to continue for another hour. Any electoral districts that are unable to complete initial count will continue counting tomorrow morning.
- Preliminary results are not yet available for three ridings (including for weather-related reasons): Cariboo-Chilcotin, Surrey-Newton and North Coast-Haida Gwaii.
- Sixteen districts are continuing to count out-of-district ballots.
- With BC’s ‘vote anywhere’ model, some districts are reporting out-of-district results from dozens of other contests.
- Write-in ballots also take longer to count than ordinary ballots.
- Automatic recounts will take place in electoral districts where the margin between the top two candidates is 100 votes or less at the conclusion of the initial count (update October 20 — automatic recount in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre). These recounts will take place during final count, scheduled for October 26 to 28.
- Some types of ballots must be counted at final count and were counted tonight. These include vote-by-mail ballots that were received by mail after the close of advance voting or dropped off in person at a voting place or district electoral office. Elections BC says they will report the number of ballots that will be considered at final count and will provide this information as soon as possible.
Capital Region ridings (on South Vancouver Island): [Exact numbers to come in future updates]
- Esquimalt-Colwood: Won by Darlene Rotchford (BC NDP) beating out BC Conservative candidate John Wilson and BC Green candidate Camille Currie.
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat: Too close to call – as at 11:59 pm Oct 19 the BC NDP candidate (Dana Lajeunesse) had a lead of only 23 votes over the BC Conservative candidate (Marina Sapozhnikov); Elections BC will be doing an official recount here. The BC Green candidate was David Evans who set a solid base for the Greens in this new riding.
- Langford-Highlands: A clear win by Ravi Parmar for the BC NDP, but a good strong second-place fight by BC Conservative candidate Mike Harris. Respectable vote count for Erin Cassels for the BC Greens.
- Oak Bay-Gordon Head: A strong win by BC NDP candidate Diana Gibson (holding the riding for the BC NDP where Murray Rankin was the former MLA there); second place finish by BC Green deputy party leader Dr Lisa Gunderson; Stephen Andrew BC Conservative came in third.
- Saanich North and the Islands: A clear win by Rob Botterell for the BC Greens. It’s the first time a new BC Green candidate has held a riding in a subsequent election (Adam Olsen was MLA there for two terms, 2017-2024), beating out Sarah Riddell (BC NDP) and David Busch (BC Conservative).
- Saanich South: Lana Popham (BC NDP) has achieved a fifth election win (now serving since 2009), beating out BC Conservative Adam Kubel and BC Green Ned Taylor.
- Victoria-Beacon Hill: BC NDP incumbent Grace Lore has won this, beating out BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau and Tim Thielmann BC Conservative. Furstenau’s loss means that the BC Greens will not have a party leader in the legislative assembly.
- Victoria-Swan Lake: The BC NDP machine has ushered in Nina Krieger as the new MLA in this core area riding where former MLA Rob Fleming had held the riding since 2005. The BC Green candidate here was Christina Winter, and the BC Conservative candidate was Tim Taylor.
Significant wins & losses:
Party Leaders:
- BC NDP Leader David Eby was re-elected in Vancouver-Point Grey and continues as the Premier of BC. If the two too-close-to-call ridings (Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre) end up as BC NDP, Eby could establish stability by seeking an alignment (e.g. Supply and Confidence Agreement) with the two BC Green MLAs.
- BC Conservative Leader John Rustad has been re-elected in his Prince George-area riding Nechako Lakes. If the two too-close-to-call ridings (Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre) end up as BC Conservative, Rustad could establish stability by seeking an alignment (e.g. Supply and Confidence Agreement) with the two BC Green MLAs.
- Sonia Furstenau is off the political map for now. She left her Cowichan Valley riding behind this year, running instead in her home town Victoria-Beacon Hill (her relocation was a choice for family reasons). Furstenau put a lot of effort into supporting the new Cowichan Valley candidate Cammy Lockwood perhaps as a way to compensate to loyal Greens in that riding, but Lockwood came in third tonight. Furstenau indicated on election night that she will be in the picture to mentor the new MLAs.
BC Mainland:
- Lisa Beare (who has served in cabinet in the Tourism/Sport portfolio and more recently Post-Secondary and Future Skills) has been re-elected.
- Adrian Dix (health minister for seven years under both Horgan and then Eby) has been re-elected.
- Rachna Singh has not been re-elected. She was the education minister for the last few years; she may have lost in part because she towed the party line about SOGI without addressing concerns about parents wanting more input in their children’s experience in schools.
- Ravi Kahlon who as Housing Minister ushered in a suite of major housing legislation changes in the past year has been successfully re-elected in Delta North.
- Pam Alexis who served as Agriculture Minister under Premier Eby since December 2022 has not been re-elected in Abbotsford-Mission.
- Elenore Sturko (a former BC United MLA who defected from Kevin Falcon’s caucus earlier this year) has been elected as a BC Conservative MLA in Surrey-Cloverdale.
- Brenda Bailey has been reelected. She has served as the Minister of Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation under Premier Eby.
- Jennifer Whiteside has been re-elected by a large margin; she had served as Mental Health and Addiction Minister under Eby, and Education Minister under former Premier John Horgan.
- Bowinn Ma who has served as Minister of Climate Change and Emergency Readiness under Premier Eby has achieved a resounding re-election result in North Vancouver-Lonsdale.
Vancouver Island:
- Ravi Parmar fought hard in Langford against a robust BC Conservative campaign by Mike Harris, and it paid off. Langford-Highlands voters have returned Parmar to the legislature for another four years.
- Darlene Rotchford has achieved a resounding win in Esquimalt-Colwood despite the BC Conservatives running well-known businessman John Wilson and the BC Greens running high-profile health-care advocate Camille Currie.
- Dana Lajeunesse for the BC NDP has a 23-vote lead over BC Conservative candidate Dr Marina Sapozhnikov. As the ballots cast in other regions have not yet been included (which could add to either BC NDP or BC Conservative tallies), there is there is going to be an official recount here. This is a riding that BC NDP MLA (and Premier) John Horgan held for 18 years (2005-2023). BC Green candidate David Evans feels his strong third place is a good result for the party.
- Rob Botterell as a first-time BC Green candidate has achieved a strong win in Saanich North and the Islands, allowing the BC Greens to hold onto the riding that was held by Adam Olsen for seven years (2017-2024).
- Diana Gibson has held onto Oak Bay-Gordon Head with a strong win there, where Murray Rankin was a high profile BC NDP MLA for four years (2020-2024).
- Nina Krieger has pulled off a win for the BC NDP in Victoria-Swan Lake — a riding that has long been held by the BC NDP (Rob Fleming 2005-2024), beating out BC Green candidate Christina Winter.
The BC Greens story:
Island Social Trends Editor Mary P Brooke spent election night at the BC Green Party event in Victoria.
A few of the south Vancouver Island candidates were there, including of course party leader Sonia Furstenau who ran in Victoria-Beacon Hill, as well as Camille Currie (who ran in Esquimalt-Colwood), Christina Winter. (who ran in Victoria-Swan Lake), Dr Lisa Gunderson (who ran in Oak Bay-Gordon Head), and Erin Cassels (Langford-Highlands).
The room at the Delta Ocean Pointe was packed with at least 350 people – candidates, supporters, family, friends, and a full contingent of local media (TV, digital and print).
Campaign co-chair Adam Olsen took a lot of media interviews and held a scrum after Sonia’s speech. He did not seek re-election in Saanich North and the Islands but was quite pleased that another BC Green candidate has filled his shoes there (a first in BC politics).
Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May attended in the crowd, as did Sonia Furstenau’s family (her mother, sister, brother and others).
Furstenau was elegant in her defeat but obviously emotionally impacted. She has led the party since 2017 and spent seven hard-working years as an MLA in the legislature, as part of a small but mighty team (herself and Adam Olsen, MLA).
Posted before 8 pm:
Could be a close call:
The BC NDP and BC Conservatives are expected to tough it out for a majority win in tonight’s election results.
Island Social Trends is predicting a slim majority win for the BC NDP with about 51 seats, with the BC Conservatives forming a strong official opposition with about 34 seats, and the BC Greens electing as many as five MLAs tonight.
Small margin wins:
In every election there are some electoral area results that are real squeakers, where one candidate wins by just a handful or a few dozen votes.
- One or more candidates falling short by even a handful of votes could mean the difference to your entire community or even the province.
- It could mean whether a party leader gets elected or not.
- It could result in an entire course-change in the BC Legislative Assembly for the next four years.
When people say ‘every vote counts’ they really mean it. [Elections BC voter information page]
Advance voting advantage:
The more than one million people who voted in Advance Voting during October 10 to 16 will be glad they avoided the rain.
In the eight Capital Region ridings there was on average a 39.3% voter turnout (percentage of registered voters who participated in Advance Voting during October 10 to 16).
All voting locations for October 19:
Elections BC has posted all the voting places for across the province, online here: Where to Vote on Election Day October 19, 2024.
So far (as of 3 pm) only one riding has seen a power outage that closed one voting place for a short while.
===== RELATED:
- Election Night Results – visit the BC Election 2024 News Section
- Election day: where you can vote in the west shore on Oct 19 (October 19, 2024)
- BC Election advance voter turnout 39.3% across eight ridings in Greater Victoria (October 17, 2024)
- Who’s gonna win BC Election 2024? (October 16, 2024)
- BC Election 2024: advance voting on now for six days (October 10, 2024)
- Six days of advance voting in BC Election 2024 (October 3, 2024)
- BC NDP candidate Ravi Parmar on the Langford-Highlands campaign trail (September 29, 2024)
- NEWS SECTIONS: POLITICS | VANCOUVER ISLAND | BC ELECTION 2024