Sunday January 25, 2026 | VICTORIA, BC
Analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Watch the Jan 28, 2026 Monetary Policy Report & Interest Rate Announcement
On Wednesday January 28, the Bank of Canada will make their first interest rate announcement of the year.
This will be the first of eight scheduled interest rate announcement dates in 2026: January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10, July 15, September 2, October 28, and December 9.
Currently the central bank’s policy rate is 2.25%.
Most economists and watchers of things economic are expecting no change in the interest rate in this announcement due to continued uncertainty in the trade situation with the United States and the diversification process that Canada’s various levels of government and many industrial sectors are undertaking.
Enough for now?
The interest rate was brought down in the second half of 2024 (from 4.50% mid-year to 3.25% by 2024 year-end) then dropped further in 2025 (from 3.0% in January down to 2.25% by 2025 year-end).
The Bank of Canada may feel that is enough monetary policy intervention for now, as the economy continues to adapt to market uncertainties in trade, employment, business investment and household affordability. The Bank may be able to afford to take a ‘wait and see’ approach with this month’s interest rate announcement.
Inflation has been fairly well contained by the Bank of Canada in the past year. In previous announcements in the fall of 2025, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem identified uncertainty as the main reason for taking caution with any consideration for changing the rate in what is presently a stable — though challenged — economic circumstance for Canada.
While there are a range of considerations for making the right call on interest rates, the most immediately impacted by interest rates (and changes of rates) are mortgage holders — in particular those who are renewing a mortgage (and renters upon whose rent depends on what their landlords are paying for mortgages).
Fixed rate borrowers are less impacted than flexible-rate borrowers, unless a mortgage is up for renewal at a much higher rate than a mortgage or loan was first secured.
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NEWS SECTIONS: BANK OF CANADA | AFFORDABILTY | BANKING & FINANCE| TRADE DIVERSIFICATION