Sunday October 13, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC
BC ELECTION CAMPAIGN DAY 23 of 28
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Your 28-day voter’s guide for BC Election 2024
As if with a Sunday morning prayer, BC NDP Premier this morning specifically articulated a pitch to would-be BC Green voters: “There are so many values that we share,” said David Eby during a campaign stop in Squamish.
Eby claims both the BC NDP and the BC Greens want a strong public health care system, effective climate action, and to protect old growth forest among many other concerns like affordable housing and overall cost of living.
“I share your frustrations when things aren’t moving in the right directions as quickly as they should,” he said directly to Greens through the instant work of electronic communications and the osmotic rumblings of political networks.
But then the delivery of this new last-week-of-the-campaign strategy faltered a bit when Eby proposed that people won’t want to “wake up on Sunday morning to Premier Rustad”. It’s never a good technique to deliver a title to someone who doesn’t yet wear that title; words have power and can manifest reality.
Also borrowing on the fear tactics that he claims the BC Conservatives are (and may well be) using in this election, Eby said “we can’t afford US-style two-tier health-care”. Fear is indeed good to experience when you’re about to fall off a cliff — it will help you make the right decision. It’s up to voters to decide if a possible BC Conservative government should make people fearful. Eby obviously believes that a government without progressive clarity would be bad for BC. If one believes that, he is encouraging people to vote NDP, and for anyone aiming to split the vote with choosing Green on the ballot to think again.
“This time let’s stick together,” said Eby to the province-wide Greens who might be listening. This is still an advance voting weekend (today October 13 from 8 am to 8 pm, and again Tuesday October 15 and Wednesday October 16, both days from 8 am to 8 pm).
This pitch comes just 36 hours after the BC Greens released some polling results apparently indicating that BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau could win the Victoria-Beacon Hill riding in downtown Victoria.
That would oust a popular cabinet minister (the BC NDP’s Grace Lore) and install a third-party leader deep within the capital city precinct. It would also somehow put the BC NDP on notice that they should do a better job.
Appropriate riding for this message:
The announcement in Squamish today (within the riding of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky) is where the BC Greens came ‘so close’ to winning with their candidate Jeremy Valeriote (a former municipal councillor in Gibsons) in the 2020 election; it’s not a riding that the BC NDP wants to lose as it would be symbolic of some deterioration of the BC NDP stronghold across the province.
After Eby’s presser today Valeriote sent out a message to Greens saying “we’re so close to making history” with a reminder that he lost in 2020 by only 60 votes and saying “thank you for standing with me, Sonia, and the BC Greens and for believing in a brighter future”.
A win on October 19 for the BC Greens in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky would be a symbolic victory for the Greens as they try to expand their MLA footprint beyond south Vancouver Island.
The BC NDP candidate in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky is Jen Ford, an articulate former president of the Union of BC Municipalities (UBCM) who has joined BC NDP news announcements in the past.
Late stage of the 4-year cycle:
At this very late stage in the 4-year governance cycle, the BC NDP should not be having to remind people about the strides they’ve made in housing, health-care and child care since 2020 and actually since 2017 when the BC NDP first formed government.
This should already be clearly understood and appreciated by most British Columbians; people should already be on board.
Call it communications failure 101, which is ironic given how incredibly bloated the internal BC government communications army has become. Who is advising Premier Eby (or who has not been brought in to advise or write for him)? Who is letting all the hard work of the John Horgan legacy fall apart?
Fell into the trench:
Arguably, the BC NDP would not be having the fight of their political lives right now if Eby had kept the BC NDP campaign out of the ‘attack Rustad’ trench — and if his party had been better able to communicate the positive results of their policies and actions over the past seven years.
They often can’t get their party messaging clarified into clear and effective concepts that can be easily absorbed by people in busy lives in a way that builds or sustains political momentum for a hard-working government.
The BC NDP got the province through the COVID pandemic in one piece, was fairly creative with small business recovery funding, and took strategic moves to keep certain services afloat (like bus transportation in rural areas when that would have otherwise collapsed).
The Horgan approach was often surgical in its focus on issues and policies whereas Eby has fallen into the trap of believing that everyone sees the world the same way and that good ideas will somehow be properly executed in ways that achieve the goal.
One could say that the BC Conservatives have risen out of ‘nowhere’ in the past year because the BC NDP fell asleep at the wheel of a government bus that has had many successes but forgot to turn on the flashing lights to show where they were heading.
Turning a corner:
Society has been turning a corner not just since the pandemic but actually since the beginning of this 21st century, largely due to advancements in digital technology.
The dot-com economic boom years (2001-2008) up-ended the standard pace of communications. By 2012 all western economies saw a firm entrenchment of social media which has permanently altered the pattern and rhythm of public relations (which is what governments do) as well as seriously embattling the news media sector upon which democracy seriously depends.
Digital technology without insightful steerage has allowed the tech giants to considerably morph (or mutilate) what used to be a manageable process of communication between communities and their governments. People have gone into communication silos; everyone listens to their own. The idea of curated publishing (with reporters and editors and such) is in danger of extinction.
There’s also a trend for TV news shows to feature former politicians as political pundits, also grabbing some domain from seasoned and informed writers and editors who are less likely to be biased. And anybody with a computer and some software can produce podcasts. How much time do people have to listen to disembodied voices who put themselves into the public discourse in the domain that was once just radio.
And political campaigns seem to rely quite heavily on social media, somehow forgetting there’s a real world out there with boots on the ground. The whole idea of election campaign signage, for example, has its roots in meeting people where they are. Many folks sneer that local news is of the past. Au contraire, people thirst for it.
Sunday morning:
Eby chose Sunday morning to indicate his own fear, that he might lose his previous majority government to a party that has taken time to articulate issues in a way that people understand and can get behind.
Indeed, the choice for many voters in the October 19 election is more significant than in many past elections. This is a game-changer election where BC could look a lot different on Sunday morning October 20.
People have power with their vote. Today Eby asked the would-be Green voters in particular to take a sober second look. “This time let’s stick together,” he said, underlining that everyone’s vote “matters in a way that didn’t exist before”.
Losing West Vancouver-Sea to Sky would be a symbolic BC Green victory (expanding beyond Vancouver Island) but losing Victoria-Beacon Hill to the BC Green Party leader would be seismic.
A nod to Furstenau:
All of this is giving a nod to the BC Green leadership of Sonia Furstenau who has elevated the stature of her BC Green candidates in several ridings across BC (in particular on Vancouver Island).
After her strong articulate performance in the October 8 televised leaders debate (even during which Eby tried to align the overall direction of BC NDP and BC Green) Eby is likely already thinking about strong alignment if not a coalition of BC NDP and BC Green after the October 19 election (reminiscent of how Horgan cobbled together a stable functioning government in 2020 through a Supply and Confidence Agreement between the two parties).
Footnote for governance gurus: if it hadn’t been for the kahunas and foresight of then Lieutenant Governor Judith Guichon in 2017, the NDP-Green alliance would not have happened. No one can be sure how the current lieutenant governor would handle a complex post-election decision of any similar nature after October 19.
===== RELATED:
- Dana Lajeunesse hopes to follow in John Horgan’s local footsteps (October 12, 2024)
- Poll shows BC Green Leader Sonia Furstenau could win Victoria-Beacon Hill (October 11, 2024)
- Campaign signage matters to voters and communities (October 10, 2024)
- BC Election 2024: advance voting on now for six days (October 10, 2024)
- Premier Eby delivers full BC NDP campaign platform on #bcelxn Day 13 (October 3, 2024)
- Grace Lore: BC NDP would not take BC Conservative leader Rustad seriously if not running for Premier; BC Greens show shared values (October 1, 2024)
- Premier Eby’s campaign pit stop in Oak Bay (September 27, 2024)
- Horgan: non-support of Greens on key legislation was fall election tipping point (September 21, 2020)
- NEWS SECTIONS: SOOKE REGION | POLITICS | VANCOUVER ISLAND | BC ELECTION 2024
===== ABOUT THE WRITER:
Island Social Trends Editor Mary P Brooke has had her analytical eye on BC politics for decades, launching her series of news publications in 2008: MapleLine Magazine (2008-2010), Sooke Voice News (2011-2013), West Shore Voice News 204-2020),and Island Social Trends (2020 to present).
Island Social Trends delivers news and analysis through a socioeconomic lens with political analysis as a process to contribute to a knowledge-based society and economy. Progress is good, when done well.
Island Social Trends posts news daily at IslandSocialTrends.ca as well as biweekly in print with a PDF for subscribers.