Tuesday June 25, 2024 | VICTORIA, BC
Political analysis by Mary P Brooke | Island Social Trends
Toronto is a long ways away from south Vancouver Island, but the results of the June 24 Toronto-St Paul’s riding by-election are shaking things across the country.
The Conservative candidate won by a thin margin of 590 votes (42.1% of the vote, compared to 40.5% for the Liberal candidate) — seemingly at the last minute (wee hours this morning) — apparently with the weight of advance votes that are counted after the day’s active polls.
The Liberals couldn’t have been so sure of a riding that had been held strong by the former long-time MP Carolyn Bennett; she had strong local roots even before running federally in 1997 (only leaving elected politics in 2024 to become the Ambassador of Denmark). Relying on the strength of that one candidate all those years in a key Toronto riding perhaps led to complacency for the Liberals there.
Long ballot, long night:
Yesterday’s federal by-election had a very long ballot with the names of 84 candidates which siphoned away precious votes from the Liberals.
And the night was long, with final (preliminary) count coming in around 4:33 am local time EDT: a win for Conservative candidate Dan Stewart with 15,555 votes, with Liberal candidate Leslie Church so-close behind with 14,965 votes. The NDP carried 10.9% of the vote with 4,044 ballots cast.
Of course the top four positions were held by major parties (Conservative, Liberal, NDP and Green), but the rest were a former of protest vote for proportional representation and also against how things have been going in Canada (and more specifically the federal government’s handling of the sociopolitical aftermath of the October 7 attack in a riding that has a strong Jewish-ethnic voter base).
Run hard with the win:
The Conservatives will milk this win for all they think it’s worth. They will say it’s the indication of things to come (a Conservative win in the 2025 federal election). But hold that thought.
What applies across the country is the frustration of voters at how Canada has become a place of struggle in the past few years. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has tapped into that frustration, turning it into anger. But it’s unclear how productive that can be for achieving real progress for the country.
Never mind that there are global influences (pandemic hitting in 2020 and subsequent economic disruption) and national economic influences (Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 that have choked many families and small businesses).
Never mind that the Liberal federal government through all of that kept this country stable and whole (yes, there’s a huge fiscal deficit but folks most in need are being held above water and we don’t have riots in the streets).
In this by-election the Conservatives under Poilievre’s leadership have ridden the wave of discontent to a resounding victory, even though the numerical results themselves were a squeaker: a winning margin of 590 votes by Conservative candidate Don Stewart over Liberal candidate Leslie Church (192/192 polls returned by around 4:33 am Eastern Time).
Not to underestimate Trudeau:
People continue to underestimate Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. He has an inner sense of purpose that helps him rise from the ashes of many a scandal. That’s not to say the messiness of politics hasn’t worn him down, including the evident impact on his now-separated marriage.
But while today the political pundits will be expecting he and the Liberals to be wringing their hands (privately perhaps) at the loss in a downtown affluent Toronto riding, folks can be sure that the Liberal camp is already swirling around a range of possible responses.
In the lead-up to this by-election, the national media and their pundit panels have said the Liberals should worry for their fate in the next federal election if their candidate Leslie Church were not to win in Toronto-St Paul’s. But there’s nothing like a wake-up call to rally the troops. This by-election loss could be exactly what the Liberals needed to remind them to fight for the win in 2025 that they say they want.
Part of the new Liberal strategy could need to be putting their fresher younger faces in front of the cameras (like Housing Minister Sean Fraser and Child Care Minister Jenna Sudds) even though it’s the Liberal tendency to still woo the moneyed corporate elite behind the scenes.
The Toronto elite and deep-Quebec connections of many of the long-time party leadership are still a turnoff for many in western Canada, where the Liberals need to gain more strength for the 2025 battle.
Next election in 2025:
The next federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025 and could come sooner under normal minority government circumstances.
However, these are not normal times. The Liberals need to buy time. It likely still benefits both the Liberals and the NDP (who have propped up the Liberals since 2022 with the now well-storied Supply and Confidence Agreement) to keep the current arrangement in place until summer 2025 before an election is called.
Just what the poli-doctor ordered:
Last night’s by-election loss for the Liberals (unofficial final count in the wee hours of June 25) now gives fresh formation for the Liberals over these summer months when Members of Parliament are out in their constituencies across the country.
Their loss in Toronto-St Paul’s could be exactly what the doctor ordered… a jolt to get moving in some fresh new directions or at the very least double-down on telling Canadians what they have done well (with NDP support) over the past few years and to be humble about what they could have done better. Leading with their invest-in-Canada approach (especially in AI, tech industries and EV/auto manufacturing) might buoy them up above the fray, giving the Conservatives a chance to falter and for economic conditions to possibly improve over the next year.
===== ABOUT THE WRITER:
Mary P Brooke is the editor of Island Social Trends, a publication she launched in 2020 to explore the socioeconomic and political dynamics of the south Vancouver Island region, BC politics, and national issues.
Island Social Trends publishes daily at IslandSocialTrends.ca and bi-weekly in print. Premium Subscribers may purchase the PDF version of the print edition, which is delivered by email.
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